Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis:
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520 | 3 | |a We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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id | DE-604.BV048349349 |
illustrated | Not Illustrated |
indexdate | 2024-12-20T19:42:17Z |
institution | BVB |
isbn | 1451873611 9781451873610 |
language | English |
oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033728617 |
oclc_num | 1337141051 |
open_access_boolean | |
owner | DE-20 DE-824 DE-70 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-1102 DE-703 DE-859 DE-706 DE-384 DE-860 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-Aug4 DE-1049 DE-12 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM |
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physical | 1 Online-Ressource (23 p) |
psigel | ZDB-1-IMF |
publishDate | 2009 |
publishDateSearch | 2009 |
publishDateSort | 2009 |
publisher | International Monetary Fund |
record_format | marc |
series2 | IMF Working Papers |
spellingShingle | Clinton, Kevin Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis |
title | Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis |
title_auth | Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis |
title_exact_search | Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis |
title_full | Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis Clinton, Kevin |
title_fullStr | Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis Clinton, Kevin |
title_full_unstemmed | Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis Clinton, Kevin |
title_short | Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis |
title_sort | constructing forecast confidence bands during the financial crisis |
url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10481-9781451873610/10481-9781451873610/10481-9781451873610.xml |
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