The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area:
Gespeichert in:
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000 cb4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV048349218 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 00000000000000.0 | ||
| 007 | cr|uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 220713s2009 xx o|||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 1451873883 |c 18.00 USD |9 1-451-87388-3 | ||
| 020 | |a 9781451873887 |c 18.00 USD |9 978-1-451-87388-7 | ||
| 035 | |a (ZDB-1-IMF)845890379 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1337140112 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV048349218 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-20 |a DE-824 |a DE-70 |a DE-155 |a DE-29 |a DE-22 |a DE-473 |a DE-1102 |a DE-703 |a DE-859 |a DE-706 |a DE-384 |a DE-860 |a DE-19 |a DE-739 |a DE-355 |a DE-Aug4 |a DE-1049 |a DE-12 |a DE-91 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Lombardi, Marco |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area |c Lombardi, Marco |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, D.C |b International Monetary Fund |c 2009 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (36 p) | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a IMF Working Papers |v Working Paper No. 09/241 | |
| 520 | 3 | |a The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal set of variables as well as growth in the Rest of the World (an aggregation of seven small countries) and selected combinations of financial variables. Impulse responses (in-sample) show that shocks to financial variables influence real activity. However, according to out-of-sample forecast exercises using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metric, this macro-financial linkage would be weak: financial indicators do not improve short and medium term forecasts of real activity in the euro area, even when their timely availability, relative to GDP, is exploited. This result is partly due to the ''average'' nature of the RMSE metric: when forecasting ability is assessed as if in real time (conditionally on the information available at the time of the forecast), we find that models using financial variables would have been preferred, ex ante, in several episodes, in particular between 1999 and 2002. This result suggests that one should not discard, on the basis of RMSE statistics, the use of predictive models that include financial variables if there is a theoretical prior that a financial shock is affecting growth | |
| 533 | |a Online-Ausg | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Espinoza, Raphael A. |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Fornari, Fabio |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |x Verlag |z URL des Erstveröffentlichers |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-1-IMF | ||
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033728486 | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-20 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-824 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-70 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-155 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-29 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-22 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-473 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-1102 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-703 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-859 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-706 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-384 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-860 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-19 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-739 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-355 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-Aug4 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-1049 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-12 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |l DE-91 |p ZDB-1-IMF |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-TUM_katkey | 2672177 |
|---|---|
| _version_ | 1821936402749718528 |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Lombardi, Marco |
| author_facet | Lombardi, Marco |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Lombardi, Marco |
| author_variant | m l ml |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV048349218 |
| collection | ZDB-1-IMF |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-1-IMF)845890379 (OCoLC)1337140112 (DE-599)BVBBV048349218 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>05906nam a2200601 cb4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV048349218</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">00000000000000.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr|uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">220713s2009 xx o|||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1451873883</subfield><subfield code="c">18.00 USD</subfield><subfield code="9">1-451-87388-3</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9781451873887</subfield><subfield code="c">18.00 USD</subfield><subfield code="9">978-1-451-87388-7</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(ZDB-1-IMF)845890379</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1337140112</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV048349218</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-824</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-70</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-155</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-22</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1102</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-703</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-859</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-706</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-384</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-860</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-Aug4</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1049</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-12</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-91</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Lombardi, Marco</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area</subfield><subfield code="c">Lombardi, Marco</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Washington, D.C</subfield><subfield code="b">International Monetary Fund</subfield><subfield code="c">2009</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (36 p)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">IMF Working Papers</subfield><subfield code="v">Working Paper No. 09/241</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1="3" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal set of variables as well as growth in the Rest of the World (an aggregation of seven small countries) and selected combinations of financial variables. Impulse responses (in-sample) show that shocks to financial variables influence real activity. However, according to out-of-sample forecast exercises using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metric, this macro-financial linkage would be weak: financial indicators do not improve short and medium term forecasts of real activity in the euro area, even when their timely availability, relative to GDP, is exploited. This result is partly due to the ''average'' nature of the RMSE metric: when forecasting ability is assessed as if in real time (conditionally on the information available at the time of the forecast), we find that models using financial variables would have been preferred, ex ante, in several episodes, in particular between 1999 and 2002. This result suggests that one should not discard, on the basis of RMSE statistics, the use of predictive models that include financial variables if there is a theoretical prior that a financial shock is affecting growth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="533" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Online-Ausg</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Espinoza, Raphael A.</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Fornari, Fabio</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="z">URL des Erstveröffentlichers</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="943" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033728486</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-824</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-70</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-155</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-22</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-1102</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-703</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-859</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-706</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-384</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-860</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-19</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-Aug4</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-1049</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-12</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-1-IMF</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV048349218 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T19:42:17Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1451873883 9781451873887 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033728486 |
| oclc_num | 1337140112 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-20 DE-824 DE-70 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-1102 DE-703 DE-859 DE-706 DE-384 DE-860 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-Aug4 DE-1049 DE-12 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM |
| owner_facet | DE-20 DE-824 DE-70 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-22 DE-BY-UBG DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-1102 DE-703 DE-859 DE-706 DE-384 DE-860 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-Aug4 DE-1049 DE-12 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (36 p) |
| psigel | ZDB-1-IMF |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | International Monetary Fund |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | IMF Working Papers |
| spellingShingle | Lombardi, Marco The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area |
| title | The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area |
| title_auth | The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area |
| title_exact_search | The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area |
| title_full | The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area Lombardi, Marco |
| title_fullStr | The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area Lombardi, Marco |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area Lombardi, Marco |
| title_short | The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area |
| title_sort | the role of financial variables in predicting economic activity in the euro area |
| url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887/10512-9781451873887.xml |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lombardimarco theroleoffinancialvariablesinpredictingeconomicactivityintheeuroarea AT espinozaraphaela theroleoffinancialvariablesinpredictingeconomicactivityintheeuroarea AT fornarifabio theroleoffinancialvariablesinpredictingeconomicactivityintheeuroarea |