Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?
In an important paper, Diebold and Rudebusch (1991) find that, despite good performance for post revision historical versions, the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fails to improve forecasts in real time out-of-sample tests. This paper revisits the issue of real-time performance of th...
Gespeichert in:
| Beteilige Person: | |
|---|---|
| Weitere beteiligte Personen: | |
| Format: | Elektronisch Buchkapitel |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2004
|
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |
| Zusammenfassung: | In an important paper, Diebold and Rudebusch (1991) find that, despite good performance for post revision historical versions, the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fails to improve forecasts in real time out-of-sample tests. This paper revisits the issue of real-time performance of the LEI using growth rate forecast specifications. We contrast real-time out-of-sample tests of LEI forecasts using "composition-changing" or "as-published" versions of the LEI with those based on "composition-constant" indexes. The goal is ... |
| Umfang: | 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000naa a2200000zc 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV047939414 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 00000000000000.0 | ||
| 007 | cr|uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 220413s2004 xx o|||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (ZDB-13-SOC)061274348 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV047939414 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e aacr | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-384 |a DE-91 |a DE-473 |a DE-824 |a DE-29 |a DE-739 |a DE-355 |a DE-20 |a DE-1028 |a DE-1049 |a DE-188 |a DE-521 |a DE-861 |a DE-898 |a DE-92 |a DE-573 |a DE-19 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a McGuckin, Robert H... |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index |b Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter? |c Robert H. McGuckin and Ataman Ozyildirim |
| 264 | 1 | |a Paris |b OECD Publishing |c 2004 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 520 | |a In an important paper, Diebold and Rudebusch (1991) find that, despite good performance for post revision historical versions, the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fails to improve forecasts in real time out-of-sample tests. This paper revisits the issue of real-time performance of the LEI using growth rate forecast specifications. We contrast real-time out-of-sample tests of LEI forecasts using "composition-changing" or "as-published" versions of the LEI with those based on "composition-constant" indexes. The goal is ... | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Economics | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ozyildirim, Ataman |4 ctb | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |x Verlag |z URL des Erstveröffentlichers |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ebook | ||
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033320908 | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-384 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-473 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-824 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-29 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-739 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-355 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-20 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-1028 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-1049 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-521 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-861 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-898 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-92 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-91 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-573 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |l DE-19 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1818989089972551680 |
|---|---|
| any_adam_object | |
| author | McGuckin, Robert H.. |
| author2 | Ozyildirim, Ataman |
| author2_role | ctb |
| author2_variant | a o ao |
| author_facet | McGuckin, Robert H.. Ozyildirim, Ataman |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | McGuckin, Robert H.. |
| author_variant | r h m rh rhm |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV047939414 |
| collection | ebook |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-13-SOC)061274348 (DE-599)BVBBV047939414 |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |
| format | Electronic Book Chapter |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>03284naa a2200505zc 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV047939414</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">00000000000000.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr|uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">220413s2004 xx o|||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(ZDB-13-SOC)061274348</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV047939414</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">aacr</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-384</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-824</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1028</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1049</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-188</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-521</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-861</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-898</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-92</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-573</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">McGuckin, Robert H...</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index</subfield><subfield code="b">Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?</subfield><subfield code="c">Robert H. McGuckin and Ataman Ozyildirim</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Paris</subfield><subfield code="b">OECD Publishing</subfield><subfield code="c">2004</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">In an important paper, Diebold and Rudebusch (1991) find that, despite good performance for post revision historical versions, the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fails to improve forecasts in real time out-of-sample tests. This paper revisits the issue of real-time performance of the LEI using growth rate forecast specifications. We contrast real-time out-of-sample tests of LEI forecasts using "composition-changing" or "as-published" versions of the LEI with those based on "composition-constant" indexes. The goal is ...</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Ozyildirim, Ataman</subfield><subfield code="4">ctb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="z">URL des Erstveröffentlichers</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ebook</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="943" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033320908</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-384</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-824</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-1028</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-1049</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-521</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-861</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-898</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-92</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-573</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en</subfield><subfield code="l">DE-19</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV047939414 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T19:32:56Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033320908 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-384 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-188 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-92 DE-573 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| owner_facet | DE-384 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-188 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-92 DE-573 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) |
| psigel | ebook ZDB-13-SOC |
| publishDate | 2004 |
| publishDateSearch | 2004 |
| publishDateSort | 2004 |
| publisher | OECD Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | McGuckin, Robert H... Verfasser aut Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter? Robert H. McGuckin and Ataman Ozyildirim Paris OECD Publishing 2004 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier In an important paper, Diebold and Rudebusch (1991) find that, despite good performance for post revision historical versions, the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fails to improve forecasts in real time out-of-sample tests. This paper revisits the issue of real-time performance of the LEI using growth rate forecast specifications. We contrast real-time out-of-sample tests of LEI forecasts using "composition-changing" or "as-published" versions of the LEI with those based on "composition-constant" indexes. The goal is ... Economics Ozyildirim, Ataman ctb https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | McGuckin, Robert H.. Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter? Economics |
| title | Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter? |
| title_auth | Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter? |
| title_exact_search | Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter? |
| title_full | Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter? Robert H. McGuckin and Ataman Ozyildirim |
| title_fullStr | Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter? Robert H. McGuckin and Ataman Ozyildirim |
| title_full_unstemmed | Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter? Robert H. McGuckin and Ataman Ozyildirim |
| title_short | Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index |
| title_sort | real time tests of the leading economic index do changes in the index composition matter |
| title_sub | Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter? |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art11-en |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mcguckinroberth realtimetestsoftheleadingeconomicindexdochangesintheindexcompositionmatter AT ozyildirimataman realtimetestsoftheleadingeconomicindexdochangesintheindexcompositionmatter |