The OECD potential output estimation methodology:
This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy poten...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2019
|
| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
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| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | https://doi.org/10.1787/4357c723-en |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions |
| Umfang: | 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) |
| DOI: | 10.1787/4357c723-en |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-01-11T15:45:58Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
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| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) |
| psigel | ZDB-13-SOC |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateSearch | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | OECD Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | OECD Economics Department Working Papers |
| spellingShingle | Chalaux, Thomas The OECD potential output estimation methodology Economics |
| title | The OECD potential output estimation methodology |
| title_auth | The OECD potential output estimation methodology |
| title_exact_search | The OECD potential output estimation methodology |
| title_full | The OECD potential output estimation methodology Thomas Chalaux and Yvan Guillemette |
| title_fullStr | The OECD potential output estimation methodology Thomas Chalaux and Yvan Guillemette |
| title_full_unstemmed | The OECD potential output estimation methodology Thomas Chalaux and Yvan Guillemette |
| title_short | The OECD potential output estimation methodology |
| title_sort | the oecd potential output estimation methodology |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/4357c723-en |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chalauxthomas theoecdpotentialoutputestimationmethodology AT guillemetteyvan theoecdpotentialoutputestimationmethodology |