Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk:
During the development of modern probability theory in the 17th cen tury it was commonly held that the attractiveness of a gamble offering the payoffs :1:17 ••• ,:l: with probabilities Pl, . . . , Pn is given by its expected n value L:~ :l:iPi. Accordingly, the decision problem of choosing among di...
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| Beteilige Person: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Berlin, Heidelberg
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
1991
|
| Ausgabe: | 1st ed. 1991 |
| Schriftenreihe: | Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
363 |
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-58203-5 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-58203-5 |
| Zusammenfassung: | During the development of modern probability theory in the 17th cen tury it was commonly held that the attractiveness of a gamble offering the payoffs :1:17 ••• ,:l: with probabilities Pl, . . . , Pn is given by its expected n value L:~ :l:iPi. Accordingly, the decision problem of choosing among different such gambles - which will be called prospects or lotteries in the sequel-was thought to be solved by maximizing the corresponding expected values. The famous St. Petersburg paradox posed by Nicholas Bernoulli in 1728, however, conclusively demonstrated the fact that individuals l consider more than just the expected value. The resolution of the St. Petersburg paradox was proposed independently by Gabriel Cramer and Nicholas's cousin Daniel Bernoulli [BERNOULLI 1738/1954]. Their argument was that in a gamble with payoffs :l:i the decisive factors are not the payoffs themselves but their subjective values u( :l:i)' According to this argument gambles are evaluated on the basis of the expression L:~ U(Xi)pi. This hypothesis -with a somewhat different interpretation of the function u - has been given a solid axiomatic foundation in 1944 by v. Neumann and Morgenstern and is now known as the expected utility hypothesis. The resulting model has served for a long time as the preeminent theory of choice under risk, especially in its economic applications |
| Umfang: | 1 Online-Ressource (VIII, 100 p) |
| ISBN: | 9783642582035 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-642-58203-5 |
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| 520 | |a During the development of modern probability theory in the 17th cen tury it was commonly held that the attractiveness of a gamble offering the payoffs :1:17 ••• ,:l: with probabilities Pl, . . . , Pn is given by its expected n value L:~ :l:iPi. Accordingly, the decision problem of choosing among different such gambles - which will be called prospects or lotteries in the sequel-was thought to be solved by maximizing the corresponding expected values. The famous St. Petersburg paradox posed by Nicholas Bernoulli in 1728, however, conclusively demonstrated the fact that individuals l consider more than just the expected value. The resolution of the St. Petersburg paradox was proposed independently by Gabriel Cramer and Nicholas's cousin Daniel Bernoulli [BERNOULLI 1738/1954]. Their argument was that in a gamble with payoffs :l:i the decisive factors are not the payoffs themselves but their subjective values u( :l:i)' According to this argument gambles are evaluated on the basis of the expression L:~ U(Xi)pi. This hypothesis -with a somewhat different interpretation of the function u - has been given a solid axiomatic foundation in 1944 by v. Neumann and Morgenstern and is now known as the expected utility hypothesis. The resulting model has served for a long time as the preeminent theory of choice under risk, especially in its economic applications | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| any_adam_object | |
| author | Puppe, Clemens |
| author_facet | Puppe, Clemens |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Puppe, Clemens |
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| building | Verbundindex |
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| dewey-full | 330.1 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
| dewey-raw | 330.1 |
| dewey-search | 330.1 |
| dewey-sort | 3330.1 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/978-3-642-58203-5 |
| edition | 1st ed. 1991 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| spelling | Puppe, Clemens Verfasser aut Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk by Clemens Puppe 1st ed. 1991 Berlin, Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 1991 1 Online-Ressource (VIII, 100 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems 363 During the development of modern probability theory in the 17th cen tury it was commonly held that the attractiveness of a gamble offering the payoffs :1:17 ••• ,:l: with probabilities Pl, . . . , Pn is given by its expected n value L:~ :l:iPi. Accordingly, the decision problem of choosing among different such gambles - which will be called prospects or lotteries in the sequel-was thought to be solved by maximizing the corresponding expected values. The famous St. Petersburg paradox posed by Nicholas Bernoulli in 1728, however, conclusively demonstrated the fact that individuals l consider more than just the expected value. The resolution of the St. Petersburg paradox was proposed independently by Gabriel Cramer and Nicholas's cousin Daniel Bernoulli [BERNOULLI 1738/1954]. Their argument was that in a gamble with payoffs :l:i the decisive factors are not the payoffs themselves but their subjective values u( :l:i)' According to this argument gambles are evaluated on the basis of the expression L:~ U(Xi)pi. This hypothesis -with a somewhat different interpretation of the function u - has been given a solid axiomatic foundation in 1944 by v. Neumann and Morgenstern and is now known as the expected utility hypothesis. The resulting model has served for a long time as the preeminent theory of choice under risk, especially in its economic applications Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Operations Research/Decision Theory Economic theory Operations research Decision making Erwarteter Nutzen (DE-588)4152928-5 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Erwarteter Nutzen (DE-588)4152928-5 s Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 s Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 s Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe 9783540542476 Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe 9783642582042 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-58203-5 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Puppe, Clemens Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Operations Research/Decision Theory Economic theory Operations research Decision making Erwarteter Nutzen (DE-588)4152928-5 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4152928-5 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4064324-4 (DE-588)4225781-5 (DE-588)4070864-0 (DE-588)4138606-1 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk |
| title_auth | Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk |
| title_exact_search | Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk |
| title_full | Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk by Clemens Puppe |
| title_fullStr | Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk by Clemens Puppe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk by Clemens Puppe |
| title_short | Distorted Probabilities and Choice under Risk |
| title_sort | distorted probabilities and choice under risk |
| topic | Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Operations Research/Decision Theory Economic theory Operations research Decision making Erwarteter Nutzen (DE-588)4152928-5 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd Entscheidung bei Risiko (DE-588)4225781-5 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Operations Research/Decision Theory Economic theory Operations research Decision making Erwarteter Nutzen Mathematisches Modell Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung Entscheidung bei Risiko Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit Entscheidungstheorie Hochschulschrift |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-58203-5 |
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