Belt and road economics: opportunities and risks of transport corridors
Gespeichert in:
| Beteiligte Personen: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington
World Bank Group
[2019]
|
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031449951&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Umfang: | xiv, 140 Seiten Diagramme, Karten |
| ISBN: | 9781464813924 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | CONTENTS CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS..................................................................................................................ix NOTE ON SCOPE AND TERMINOLOGY xi FOREWORD.................................................................................................................................... xiii OVERVIEW. Opportunities and risks of Belt and Road transport corridors......................... 1 CHAPTER 1. Connectivity, trade, and debt in the Belt and Road corridor economies......11 1.1 Current trade and foreign direct investment landscape.......................................................... 13 ifade in goods....,................................................................................................................... 13 Foreign direct investment...................................................................................................... 16 Participation in global value chains....................................................................................... 18 Missing trade and FDI...........................................................................................................22 1.2 Infrastructure and policy gaps...................................................................................22 Transport and digital connectivity.........................................................................................22 Policies and institutions......................................................................................................... 32 1.3 The BlU s cost and
financing...................................................................................37 What is the cost of the BRI?................................................................................................37 BRI financing........................................................................................................................ 39 CHAPTER 2. Economic effects of BRI transport infrastructure.............................................. 43 2.1 How much will BRI transport infrastructure projects reduce trade costs?............................45 Quantifying the BRI’s impact on shipment times and trade costs..................................... 48 Considering a subset of BRI projects...................................................................................50 2.2 Impact on trade and foreign investment..................................................................................52 Trade....................................................................................................................................... 52 Foreign investment................................................................................................................ 55 2.3 Impact on income, welfare, and poverty....................................................................................57 Trade effects on aggregate income and welfare................................................................... 57 Trade effects on poverty........................................................................................................ 59 Effects through
foreign investment....................................................................................... 60 Spatially differentiated effects of the BRI.............................................................................61 CHAPTER 3. Complementary policies and institutions.............................................................65 3.1 Promoting integration................................................................................................................67 Trade and real income impact of lowering border delays................................................... 67 Spatial impact of lowering border delays.............................................................................. 70 Tariffs and trade agreements.................................................................................................. 71 3.2 Policies and institutions to promote corridor development....................................................73 Project development...............................................................................................................73 Institutional arrangements..................................................................................................... 79 3.3 Promoting private sector participation......................................................................................80 Strengthening legal protection of investments..................................................................... 82 Supporting private sector development................................................................................85 3.4
Promoting inclusiveness............................................................................................................. 87 Labor displacement and policies to speed adjustment......................................................... 88 Territorial inequality and labor mobility.............................................................................. 89 Other territorial policies........................................................................................................91 CHAPTER 4. Managing the risks...................................................................................................95 4.1 Managing fiscal risks...........................................................................................97 Fiscal risks............................................................................................................................... 97 Policies and institutions to manage the risks........................................................................102 4.2 Managing governance risks.......................................................................................................104 Public procurement.............................................................................................................. 104 Options for moving forward.................................................................................................107 Corruption.............................................................................................................................108 4.3 Managing environmental and social
risks................................................................................ 111 Direct and indirect environmental risks............................................................................... Ill Social risks associated with transport sector operations..................................................... .120 Mitigating the risks of labor influx: World Bank best practice measures...........................121 CHAPTER 5. Shaping the Belt and Road Initiative: Policies and institutions.......................123 Policy matrix of BRI reform actions....................................................................................... 126 v
CONTENTS REFERENCES.............................................................................................................................................131 FIGURES Figure 1: Figure 1.1: Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure 1.2: 1.3: 1.4: 1.5: 1.6: Figure BÍ.1.1: Figure BÍ. 1.2: Figure 1.7: Figure 1.8: Figure 1.9: Figure 1.10: Figure Figure Figure Figure 1.11: 1.12: 1.13: 1.14: Figure 1.15: Figure 1.16: Figure 1.17: Figure 1.18: Figure 1.19: Figure 1.20: Figure 1.21: Figure 2.1: Figure 2.2: Figure 2.3: Figure 2.4: Figure 2.5: Figure 2.6: Figure 2.7: Figure 2.8: Figure 3.1: Figure 3.2: Figure 3.3: Figure B3.2.1: Figure B3.2.2: Figure 3.4: Figure 3.5: Figure 3.6a: Figure 3.6b: Figure 3.7: Figure 3.8: The Silk Road Economic Belt and New Maritime Silk Road....................................... 3 Share of Belt and Road corridor economies in global exports and growth of corridor economies’ exports, by region, 1990-2016.................................................... 14 Trade integration of Belt and Road corridor economies and the role of China........... 15 Belt and Road corridor economies’ direct investment, by region................................... 17 Foreign direct investment to Belt and Road corridor economies, by source................. 18 Belt and Road corridor economies’ participation in GVCs, by region.......................... 19 The centrality of China as a source of foreign value added in Belt and Road corridor economies’ gross exports............................................................20 Share of Belt and Road corridor economies in China’s
exports, by type of goods, 2001-17.................................................................. 21 Trends in China’s outward investment and construction contracts................................ 21 Quality ofland infrastructure.............................................................................................. 23 Transport and logistics services in Belt and Road corridor economies.......................... 25 Internet users and access to mobile broadband................................................................. 27 Cost to ship a container to Rotterdam and Shanghai from Belt and Road corridor economies..................................................................................... 29 Cost to ship a container to neighboring economies, average per region....................... 30 Time to import for Belt and Road corridor economies and the G7.............................32 Average time to comply with import and export requirements, by BRI corridor........33 Tariffs and the Overall Trade Restrictiveness Indicator in Belt and Road corridor economies and G7 countries, 2016...................................... 34 FDI policy in Belt and Road corridor economies, and non-Belt and Road and high-income OECD countries..........................................35 BRI investments in Belt and Road corridor economies................................................... 38 Bottom-up costs ofBRI transport infrastructure investments.......................................... 39 BRI financing in Bek and Road corridor
economies.......................................................40 General government gross debt............................................................................................41 Public and publicly guaranteed external debt..................................................................... 41 Debt composition of BRI-recipient low-income developing countries.......................... 42 BRI-related transport projects.............................................................................................. 46 Average reduction in shipping times by economy............................................................. 49 BRI infrastructure improvements will increase exports (CGE and SGE models)........... 53 Infrastructure improvements are projected to increase foreign directinvestment............55 Infrastructure improvements are projected to increase GDP (CGEand SGEmodels),... 58 The BRI transport network will increase GDP growth through foreign direct investment......................................................................... 60 Spatial coverage of Central Asia used for the analysis......................................................... 61 Spatial disaggregation of real income growth against direct effects of transport investments at district level............................................................................63 Impact of complementary policies on exports (CGE)....................................................... 68 Impact of complementary policies on income (CGE)....................................................... 70 Change in
real incomes at a district level from reducing border costs and investing in transport infrastructure.............................................................................72 Overall Services Trade Restrictiveness Index of Belt and Road corridor economies.... 74 Services Trade Restrictions Index of Belt and Road corridor economies by sector.......75 Strength of protection of domestic investment laws and international investment agreements in 17 Belt and Road corridor economies................................. 82 Strength of investment protection in international investment agreements along selected BRI rail routes ........................................................................ 83 Investor-state dispute cases in 21 Belt and Road corridor economies............................. 84 Rule of Law Index for 21 Belt and Road corridor economies.........................................84 Number of days to start a business in Belt and Road corridor economies.......................86 Barriers to labor mobility exacerbate spatial inequalities, reducing opportunities...........90
CONTENTS Figure 3.9: Figure 4.1: Figure 4.2: Figure 4.3: Figure 4.4: Figure 4.5: Figure 4.6: Figure 4.7: Figure B4.2.1: Impact of BRI transport investments on Almaty................................................................92 Public debt and expected BRI debt financing...................................................................99 Projected status of Belt and Road corridor economies in 2023......................................100 Belt and Road corridor economies where domestic preference provisions exist, by region and type of provision.......................................................................................106 Corruption Perception Index (CPI) scores for Belt and Road corridor economies, 2017................................................................. 109 Relationship between CPI and Rule of Law Index for 50 Belt and Road corridor economies, 2017............................................................................... 109 BRI road and rail projects -operating, under construction, plannedin relation to biodiversity risks..........................................................................................113 BRI road and rail projects -operating, under construction, or plannedin relation to deforestation risks.......................................................................................114 Change in carbon emissions in 2030 with respect to the baseline.................................. 117 TABLES Table 1.1: Table 1.2: Table 2.1: Table 2.2: Average pre-BRI trading times within and between
regions............................................ 28 Frequency of provision coverage in trade agreements....................................................... 36 Changes in trade among Belt and Road corridor economies (CGE model)....................54 Changes in sectoral exports from Belt and Road corridor economies, by region (CGE model)................................................................................................... 56 Table 2.3: Impact of the BRI on poverty............................................................................................60 Table 2.4: Real income gains by country............................................................................................ 64 Table 3.1: Impacts of declining transport costs on real incomes.........................................................71 Table 3.2: Institutional functions and arrangements for BRI corridors.............................................80 Table 3.3: Labor displacement............................................................................................................. 88 Table B Í. 1.1: Cost overruns in selected infrastructure megaprojects.....................................................102 Table 4.1: Definitions and example of corrupt practices in the infrastructure (transport) sector....108 Table 4.2: Options for mitigating environmental risks....................................................................... 118 Table 5.1: BRI reform actions.............................................................................................................128
Table BÍ: Silk Road Economic Belt (“Belt”).................................................................................... 136 Table B2: Maritime Silk Road (“Road”)...........................................................................................138 BOXES Box 1.1: Box 2.1: Box 2.2: Box 3.1: Box 3.2: Box 3.3: Box 3.4: Box 3.5: Box 3.6: Box 4.1: Box 4.2: Box 4.3: Box 5.1: How old is the BRI? .......................................................................................................... 20 The European Union’s TEN-T and its extension to Eastern Europe..............................47 Successful BRI projects and the risk of stranded infrastructure........................................ 50 Reducing trade facilitation hurdles along BRI corridors.................................................. 69 Services trade reform...........................................................................................................74 The impact of removing subsidies for rail freight..............................................................76 Transport and information and communications technology synergies........................... 78 Successful corridor development—Vietnam National Highway № 5.............................79 Special economic zones in the Belt and Road corridor economies................................. 87 The risk of failure of megaprojects.................................................................................... 101 Impact of BRI transport infrastructure on emissions .......................................................116 The
World Bank Environment and Social Framework.................................................... 119 Key initiatives launched at the 2nllBelt and Road Forum................................................127 APPENDIXES Appendix A. Economies covered by this report................................................................135 Appendix B. BRI road, rail, and port investments.............................................................136
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| indexdate | 2024-12-20T18:42:21Z |
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| isbn | 9781464813924 |
| language | English |
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| spellingShingle | Ruta, Michele 1974- Dappe, Matías Herrera Lall, Somik V. 1972- Zhang Chunlin 1957- Churchill,Erik Constantinescu, Cristina Lebrand, Mathilde Mulabdic,Alen Belt and road economics opportunities and risks of transport corridors One-Belt-One-Road-Initiative (DE-588)1177403080 gnd Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Infrastrukturpolitik (DE-588)4161710-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)1177403080 (DE-588)4066493-4 (DE-588)4161710-1 (DE-588)4015685-0 (DE-588)4009937-4 |
| title | Belt and road economics opportunities and risks of transport corridors |
| title_auth | Belt and road economics opportunities and risks of transport corridors |
| title_exact_search | Belt and road economics opportunities and risks of transport corridors |
| title_full | Belt and road economics opportunities and risks of transport corridors written by Michele Ruta, Matias Herrera Dappe, Somik Lall, and Chunlin Zhang, with Erik Churchill, Cristina Constantinescu, Mathilde Lebrand, and Alen Mulabdic |
| title_fullStr | Belt and road economics opportunities and risks of transport corridors written by Michele Ruta, Matias Herrera Dappe, Somik Lall, and Chunlin Zhang, with Erik Churchill, Cristina Constantinescu, Mathilde Lebrand, and Alen Mulabdic |
| title_full_unstemmed | Belt and road economics opportunities and risks of transport corridors written by Michele Ruta, Matias Herrera Dappe, Somik Lall, and Chunlin Zhang, with Erik Churchill, Cristina Constantinescu, Mathilde Lebrand, and Alen Mulabdic |
| title_short | Belt and road economics |
| title_sort | belt and road economics opportunities and risks of transport corridors |
| title_sub | opportunities and risks of transport corridors |
| topic | One-Belt-One-Road-Initiative (DE-588)1177403080 gnd Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Infrastrukturpolitik (DE-588)4161710-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | One-Belt-One-Road-Initiative Wirtschaftspolitik Infrastrukturpolitik Eurasien China |
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