A complete guide to the futures market: technical analysis and trading systems, fundamental analysis, options, spreads, and trading principles
Gespeichert in:
| Beteiligte Personen: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Hoboken, New Jersey
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
[2017]
|
| Ausgabe: | Second edition |
| Schriftenreihe: | Wiley trading series
|
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029850807&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references (page 683) and index |
| Umfang: | xv, 704 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 1118859596 9781118853757 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a A complete guide to the futures market |b technical analysis and trading systems, fundamental analysis, options, spreads, and trading principles |c Jack D. Schwager, Mark Etzkorn |
| 250 | |a Second edition | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Hoboken, New Jersey |b John Wiley & Sons, Inc. |c [2017] | |
| 300 | |a xv, 704 Seiten |b Diagramme | ||
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| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references (page 683) and index | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Electronic books / local | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Futures market | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Commodity exchanges | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Hedging (Finance) | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1819365134412283904 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
About the Authors xv
PART I Preliminaries
CHAPTER 1 For Beginners Only 3
3
3
4
5
9
11
15
16
19
19
CHAPTER 2 The Great Fundamental versus Technical Analysis Debate 21
PART II Chart Analysis and Technical Indicators
CHAPTER 3 Charts: Forecasting Tool or Folklore? 27
CHAPTER 4 Types of Charts 35
Bar Charts 35
Linked Contract Series: Nearest Futures versus Continuous Futures 39
Close-Only (“Line”) Charts 40
Purpose of This Chapter
The Nature of Futures Markets
Delivery
Contract Specifications
Volume and Open Interest
Hedging
Trading
Types of Orders
Commissions and Margins
Tax Considerations
Point-and-Figure Charts
Candlestick Charts
42
43
CHAPTER 5 Linking Contracts for Long-Term Chart Analysis:
Nearest versus Continuous Futures 45
The Necessity of Linked-Contract Charts 45
Methods of Creating Linked-Contract Charts 4 6
Nearest versus Continuous Futures in Chart Analysis 48
Conclusion 51
CHAPTER 6 Trends 57
* 57
Defining Trends by Highs and Lows
TD Lines 66
Internal Trend Lines 73
Moving Averages 78
CHAPTER 7 Trading Ranges 83
Trading Ranges:Trading Considerations 83
Trading Range Breakouts 86
CHAPTER 8 Support and Resistance 91
Nearest Futures or Continuous Futures? 91
Trading Ranges 92
Prior Major Highs and Lows 94
Concentrations of Relative Highs and Relative Lows 101
Trend Lines, Channels, and Internal Trend Lines 106
Price Envelope Bands 107
CHAPTER 9 Chart Patterns 109
One-Day Patterns 109
Continuation Patterns 122
Top and Bottom Formations 134
CHAPTER 10 Is Chart Analysis Still Valid? 149
CHAPTER 11 Technical Indicators 155
What Is an Indicator? 155
The Basic Indicator Calculations 157
Comparing Indicators 157
Moving Average Types 165
Oscillators and Trading Signals 167
Indicator Myths 170
Indicator “Types” 172
Conclusion 173
177
183
189
189
190
194
196
198
199
203
204
204
205
205
205
211
213
216
219
222
225
229
229
231
235
236
236
237
244
247
254
256
259
Applying Chart Analysis to Trading
Midtrend Entry and Pyramiding
Choosing Stop-Loss Points
Setting Objectives and Other Position Exit Criteria
Chart-Based Objectives
Measured Move
Rule of Seven
Support and Resistance Levels
Overbought/Oversold Indicators
DeMark Sequential
Contrary Opinion
Trailing Stops
Change of Market Opinion
The Most Important Rule in Chart Analysis
Failed Signals
Bull and Bear Traps
False Trend Line Breakouts
Return to Spike Extremes
Return to Wide-Ranging Day Extremes
Counter-to-Anticipated Breakout of Flag or Pennant
Opposite Direction Breakout of Flag or Pennant Following a Normal Breakout
Penetration of Top and Bottom Formations
Breaking of Curvature
The Future Reliability of Failed Signals
Conclusion
Trading Systems and Performance Measurement
Technical Trading Systems: Structure and Design
The Benefits of a Mechanical Trading System
Three Basic Types of Systems
Trend-Following Systems
Ten Common Problems with Standard Trend-Following Systems
Possible Modifications for Basic Trend-Following Systems
Countertrend Systems
Diversification
Ten Common Problems with Trend-Following Systems Revisited
CHAPTER 17 Examples of Original Trading Systems 261
Wide-Ranging-Day System 261
Run-Day Breakout System 268
Run-Day Consecutive Count System 273
Conclusion 278
CHAPTER 18 Selecting the Best Futures Price Series for System Testing 279
Actual Contract Series 279 *
Nearest Futures 280
Constant-Forward ( Perpetual”) Series 281
Continuous (Spread-Adjusted) Price Series 282
Comparing the Series 285
Conclusion 287
CHAPTER 19 Testing and Optimizing Trading Systems 289
The Well-Chosen Example 289
Basic Concepts and Definitions 291
Choosing the Price Series 293
Choosing the Time Period 293
Realistic Assumptions 295
Optimizing Systems 297
The Optimization Myth 298
Testing versus Fitting 310
The Truth about Simulated Results 312
Multimarket System Testing 313
Negative Results 314
Ten Steps in Constructing and Testing a Trading System 315
Observations about Trading Systems 316
CHAPTER 20 How to Evaluate Past Performance 319
Why Return Alone Is Meaningless 319
Risk-Adjusted Return Measures 323
Visual Performance Evaluation 335
Investment Insights 343
PARTV Fundamental Analysis
CHAPTER 21 Fourteen Popular Fallacies, or What Not to Do Wrong 347
Five Short Scenes 347
The Fourteen Fallacies 349
359
359
362
363
366
368
371
373
373
373
374
375
376
379
379
380
380
381
383
389
389
389
390
390
391
403
403
413
417
417
418
426
427
428
Supply-Demand Analysis: Basic Economic Theory
Supply and Demand Defined
The Problem of Quantifying Demand
Understanding the Difference between Consumption and Demand
The Need to Incorporate Demand
Possible Methods for Incorporating Demand
Why Traditional Fundamental Analysis Doesn’t Work in the Gold Market
Types of Fundamental Analysis
The “Old Hand” Approach
The Balance Table
The Analogous Season Method
Regression Analysis
Index Models
The Role of Expectations
Using Prior-Year Estimates Rather Than Revised Statistics
Adding Expectations as a Variable in the Price-Forecasting Model
The Influence of Expectations on Actual Statistics
Defining New-Crop Expectations
Incorporating Inflation
Seasonal Analysis
The Concept of Seasonal Trading
Cash versus Futures Price Seasonality
The Role of Expectations
Is It Real or Is It Probability?
Calculating a Seasonal Index
Analyzing Market Response
Evaluating Market Response for Repetitive Events
Building a Forecasting Model: A Step-by-Step Approach
Fundamental Analysis and Trading
Fundamental versus Technical Analysis: A Greater Need for Caution
Three Major Pitfalls in Fundamental Analysis
Combining Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis and Money Management
Why Bother with Fundamentals?
Are Fundamentals Instantaneously Discounted?
431
432
435
439
439
440
440
441
443
443
445
446
448
449
453
461
461
462
471
471
473
477
477
480
483
484
487
487
489
559
559
560
Fitting the News to Price Moves
Fundamental Developments: Long-Term Implications versus Short-Term Response
Summary
Futures Spreads and Options
The Concepts and Mechanics of Spread Trading
Introduction
Spreads—Definition and Basic Concepts
Why Trade Spreads?
Types of Spreads
The General Rule
The General Rule—Applicability and Nonapplicability
Spread Rather Than Outright—An Example
The Limited-Risk Spread
The Spread Trade—Analysis and Approach
Pitfalls and Points of Caution
Intercommodity Spreads: Determining Contract Ratios
Spread Trading in Stock Index Futures
Intramarket Stock Index Spreads
Intermarket Stock Index Spreads
Spread Trading in Currency Futures
Intercurrency Spreads
Intracurrency Spreads
An Introduction to Options on Futures
Preliminaries
Factors That Determine Option Premiums
Theoretical versus Actual Option Premiums
Delta (the Neutral Hedge Ratio)
Option Trading Strategies
Comparing Trading Strategies
Profit /Loss Profiles for Key Trading Strategies
Practical Trading Guidelines
The Planned Trading Approach
Step 1: Define a Trading Philosophy
Step 2: Choose Markets to Be Traded
560
563
563
565
565
567
568
569
570
570
571
572
573
575
589
589
59J
593
593
597
597
599
604
606
607
608
609
612
612
614
619
619
620
620
627
627
630
630
634
Step 3 : Specify Risk Control Plan
Step 4: Establish a PlanningTime Routine
Step 5: Maintain a Traders Spreadsheet
Step 6: Maintain a Trader s Diary
Step 7: Analyze Personal Trading
Seventy-Five Trading Rules and Market Observations
Entering Trades
Exiting Trades and Risk Control (Money Management)
Other Risk-Control (Money Management) Rules
Holding and Exiting Winning Trades
Miscellaneous Principles and Rules
Market Patterns
Analysis and Review
50 Market Wizard Lessons
Introduction to Regression Analysis
Basics
Meaning of Best Fit
A Practical Example
Reliability of the Regression Forecast
A Review of Elementary Statistics
Measures of Dispersion
Probability Distributions
Reading the Normal Curve (Z) Table
Populations and Samples
Estimating the Population Mean and Standard Deviation from the Sample Statistics
Sampling Distribution
Central Limit Theorem
Standard Error of the Mean
Confidence Intervals
The t-Test
Checking the Significance of the Regression Equation
The Population Regression Line
Basic Assumptions of Regression Analysis
Testing the Significance of the Regression Coefficients
Standard Error of the Regression
Confidence Interval for an Individual Forecast
Extrapolation
Coefficient of Determination (r2)
Spurious (“Nonsense”) Correlations
APPENDIX D
The Multiple Regression Model
637
APPENDIX E
APPENDIX F
Basics of Multiple Regression
Applying the ¿-Test in the Multiple Regression Model
Standard Error of the Regression
Confidence Intervals for an Individual Forecast
R and Corrected R՜
F-Test
Analyzing a Regression Run
Analyzing the Regression Equation
Outliers
The Residual Plot
Autocorrelation Defined
The Durbin-Watson Statistic as a Measure of Autocorrelation
The Implications of Autocorrelation
Missing Variables andTime Trend
Dummy Variables
Multicollinearity
Addendum: Advanced Topics
Practical Considerations in Applying Regression Analysis
Determining the Dependent Variable
Selecting the Independent Variables
Should the Preforecast Period Price Be Included?
Choosing the Length of the Survey Period
Sources of Forecast Error
Simulation
Stepwise Regression
Sample Step-by-Step Regression Procedure
Summary
637
640
641
642
642
643
644
649
649
650
651
651
654
655
658
663
666
673
673
675
675
676
677
678
679
680
681
683
References and Recommended Readings
Index
685
|
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | Second edition |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV044449861 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T18:03:25Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1118859596 9781118853757 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-029850807 |
| oclc_num | 1004318175 |
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| owner | DE-384 |
| owner_facet | DE-384 |
| physical | xv, 704 Seiten Diagramme |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateSearch | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | John Wiley & Sons, Inc. |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Wiley trading series |
| spellingShingle | Schwager, Jack D. 1948- Etzkorn, Mark A complete guide to the futures market technical analysis and trading systems, fundamental analysis, options, spreads, and trading principles Electronic books / local Futures market Commodity exchanges Hedging (Finance) Option (DE-588)4115452-6 gnd Termingeschäft (DE-588)4117190-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4115452-6 (DE-588)4117190-1 |
| title | A complete guide to the futures market technical analysis and trading systems, fundamental analysis, options, spreads, and trading principles |
| title_auth | A complete guide to the futures market technical analysis and trading systems, fundamental analysis, options, spreads, and trading principles |
| title_exact_search | A complete guide to the futures market technical analysis and trading systems, fundamental analysis, options, spreads, and trading principles |
| title_full | A complete guide to the futures market technical analysis and trading systems, fundamental analysis, options, spreads, and trading principles Jack D. Schwager, Mark Etzkorn |
| title_fullStr | A complete guide to the futures market technical analysis and trading systems, fundamental analysis, options, spreads, and trading principles Jack D. Schwager, Mark Etzkorn |
| title_full_unstemmed | A complete guide to the futures market technical analysis and trading systems, fundamental analysis, options, spreads, and trading principles Jack D. Schwager, Mark Etzkorn |
| title_short | A complete guide to the futures market |
| title_sort | a complete guide to the futures market technical analysis and trading systems fundamental analysis options spreads and trading principles |
| title_sub | technical analysis and trading systems, fundamental analysis, options, spreads, and trading principles |
| topic | Electronic books / local Futures market Commodity exchanges Hedging (Finance) Option (DE-588)4115452-6 gnd Termingeschäft (DE-588)4117190-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Electronic books / local Futures market Commodity exchanges Hedging (Finance) Option Termingeschäft |
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