Selling the future: the perils of predicting global politics
"In an age of uncertainty, those who can anticipate revolution, the outbreak of wars, or which states might default are much in demand. The marketplace of ideas about the future is huge, and includes 'wonks', scholars and pundits who produce scenarios, predictions and ratings. The mor...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York, NY
Oxford University Press
[2016]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | The series in comparative politics and international studies
|
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190603649.001.0001 https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190603649.001.0001 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029634397&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Zusammenfassung: | "In an age of uncertainty, those who can anticipate revolution, the outbreak of wars, or which states might default are much in demand. The marketplace of ideas about the future is huge, and includes 'wonks', scholars and pundits who produce scenarios, predictions and ratings. The more opaque the future seems to be, so the relation between knowledge and power intensifies, above all the nexus between those who sell their expertise and those who consume it. In his investigation of the paradoxes of forecasting, Ariel Colonomos interrogates today's knowledge factories to reveal how our futures are shaped by social scientists, think tanks and rating agencies. He explains why conservative and linear predictions prevail, and why the future, especially when linked to national interest, reflects a systematic search for stability. The notion of a globalized world whose main characteristic is speed, and where predictions have accelerating, self-fulfilling effects, is obsolete. Those who are supposed to know, reassure those who are supposed to act. Their preferences converge, and thus the industry of the future has a decelerating effect on world politics. These 'lords of knowledge' reinforce pre-existing beliefs, create expectations about the future, while obstructing its vision when ... inevitably ... it diverges from its orderly path"...Provided by publisher |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 195-217) and indexes |
| Umfang: | 1 Online-Ressource (xvi, 225 Seiten) Illustrationen, Karten |
| ISBN: | 9780190638474 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190603649.001.0001 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Selling the future
Autor: Colonomos, Ariel
Jahr: 2016
CONTENTS
Acknowledgements xi
List of Illustrations and Figures xiii
Introduction: The Future on Stage 1
Seeing into the distance, and getting it right 3
Kinds of information
Thefuture as a discussion space 6
Continuity or rupture t 9
Brakes and accelerators 10
1he social mechanics of the future 11
PART ONE
THE FUTURE AS NARRATIVE
1. At the Centre of the World: Oracles, Seers and Prophets 17
The advantages of ambiguity 20
Superstition 21
Gaming 24
The saturation of signs 26
Networks of oracles 2
Of prophets, paths and signs: the performance of prophecy and the
testing of prophets 30
2. Telling the Future Today 33
Speaking with one voice? 33
Experts and the market 40
The world of indicators 45
vii
Political risks and world order
Unveiling a story
PART TWO
SEEING FAR
3. The Blinkers of the Social Sciences
Linearity
Chronicle of a collective denial: How not to predict thefall of the
Soviet Union
Reversals of epistemic fortune in the Arabian Deserts
The Chinese horizon of expectation
4. Engineering the World
Experts: what do they do?
Where do they come from ?
The topography of knowledge
A virtual community
The lexicon of futurism
The life and death of futures
Tlte lagging behind of the future
5. The Risk Market: Credit Ratings
A Balzacian novel
Normalising capitalism
The small world oj the agencies
Rating the future
An indeterminate stability
Do credit ratings delay thefuture?
Tl)e inertia of grand narratives
The accuracy of thefuture
PART THREE
GETTING IT RIGHT
6. Right and Wrong Futures
Two cases of denunciation of a wrongfuture
The truthfulness of thefuture
The burden of inaction
An incentive to originality
48
51
61
63
72
79
87
93
94
98
102
104
107
116
119
125
126
127
129
132
136
139
141
145
149
149
151
155
157
viii
7, Responsibility tor the Future 161
The future is the moment that got lucky 161
7 urn a lie that tells the truth 164
The public sphere of futures 166
A sphere of reputation 1 *0
Looking ahead? D2
8. The Future of Norms 177
The world order 17 8
The dialectic of the state 180
Moral revolutions ? 182
Portents of tomorrow s justice? 184
Tomorrow s priorities 185
A global observatory 187
The Ultimate Delphic Paradox: The Veil of Finitude 191
Notes 195
Name Index 219
Subject Index 223
IX
|
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| id | DE-604.BV044228674 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T17:57:21Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780190638474 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-029634397 |
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| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (xvi, 225 Seiten) Illustrationen, Karten |
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| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateSearch | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Oxford University Press |
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| series2 | The series in comparative politics and international studies |
| spellingShingle | Colonomos, Ariel 1966- Selling the future the perils of predicting global politics Internationale Politik Politik Forecasting Political aspects Economic forecasting Political aspects International relations Forecasting World politics 21st century Forecasting Social prediction Political aspects |
| title | Selling the future the perils of predicting global politics |
| title_alt | Politique des oracles |
| title_auth | Selling the future the perils of predicting global politics |
| title_exact_search | Selling the future the perils of predicting global politics |
| title_full | Selling the future the perils of predicting global politics Ariel Colonomos ; translated by Gregory Elliott |
| title_fullStr | Selling the future the perils of predicting global politics Ariel Colonomos ; translated by Gregory Elliott |
| title_full_unstemmed | Selling the future the perils of predicting global politics Ariel Colonomos ; translated by Gregory Elliott |
| title_short | Selling the future |
| title_sort | selling the future the perils of predicting global politics |
| title_sub | the perils of predicting global politics |
| topic | Internationale Politik Politik Forecasting Political aspects Economic forecasting Political aspects International relations Forecasting World politics 21st century Forecasting Social prediction Political aspects |
| topic_facet | Internationale Politik Politik Forecasting Political aspects Economic forecasting Political aspects International relations Forecasting World politics 21st century Forecasting Social prediction Political aspects |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190603649.001.0001 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029634397&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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