Economic forecasting: an introduction
This book provides an introduction to the methods employed in forecasting the future state of the economy. It provides a comprehensive coverage of methods and applications in this fast-growing area and is intended for use in postgraduate and upper-level undergraduate courses. Part I outlines the ava...
Gespeichert in:
| Beteilige Person: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge
Cambridge University Press
1990
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| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511628603 https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511628603 https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511628603 |
| Zusammenfassung: | This book provides an introduction to the methods employed in forecasting the future state of the economy. It provides a comprehensive coverage of methods and applications in this fast-growing area and is intended for use in postgraduate and upper-level undergraduate courses. Part I outlines the available techniques, particularly those used in business forecasting and econometric forecasting. The state of the art in time series modelling is reviewed and includes a discussion of Box-Jenkins models, the vector autogressive approach and cointegration. Ways of combining forecasts are also examined in detail. Part II considers the most important applications of forecasting. Applications in microeconomics include demand and sales forecasting, the use of anticipations data, leading indicators and scenario analysis. In macroeconomics the emphasis is on why errors occur in forecasting asset market prices, including implications of the efficient markets hypothesis for foreign markets, stock market prices and commodity market prices. The book ends with a discussion of the appropriateness of various techniques, recent developments in forecasting, and the links between economic forecasting and government policy |
| Beschreibung: | Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015) |
| Umfang: | 1 online resource (ix, 213 pages) |
| ISBN: | 9780511628603 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/CBO9780511628603 |
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| 505 | 8 | 0 | |t Techniques |t Introduction to forecasting methods |t Why forecasts are needed |t Methods of forecasting |t A review of business forecasting techniques |t Econometric forecasting |t Evaluating forecasts |t Time-series methods |t Stochastic models of time series |t Box-Jenkins modelling |t A worked example |t Vector autoregression models |t Cointegration |t Deterministic and stochastic trends |t Non-linear time series |t Combining forecasts |t The variance-covariance method |t The regression method |t Serial correlation problems |t Other methods of combination |t Practical suggestions for combining forecasts |t The Makridakis forecasting competition |t Applications |t Microeconomic forecasting |t Demand forecasting |t Sales and market share forecasting for companies |t Anticipations data and leading indicators |t Scenario analysis |t Other techniques |t Forecasting with macroeconomic models |t Nature of macroeconomic models |t A simple macroeconomic model |t Preparing the forecast |t Judgmental adjustments and forecast errors |t Forecasting the 1980-1982 recession |t Decomposition of macroeconomic forecasts |t Accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts |t Forecasting asset market prices |t The efficient markets hypothesis |t Foreign exchange markets |t Stock market prices |t Commodity prices |t The choice between different techniques |t Current developments |t Economic forecasting and government policy |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Holden, K. |
| author_facet | Holden, K. |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Holden, K. |
| author_variant | k h kh |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV043927284 |
| classification_rvk | QD 200 QH 237 QH 240 QH 300 SK 845 |
| collection | ZDB-20-CBO |
| contents | Techniques Introduction to forecasting methods Why forecasts are needed Methods of forecasting A review of business forecasting techniques Econometric forecasting Evaluating forecasts Time-series methods Stochastic models of time series Box-Jenkins modelling A worked example Vector autoregression models Cointegration Deterministic and stochastic trends Non-linear time series Combining forecasts The variance-covariance method The regression method Serial correlation problems Other methods of combination Practical suggestions for combining forecasts The Makridakis forecasting competition Applications Microeconomic forecasting Demand forecasting Sales and market share forecasting for companies Anticipations data and leading indicators Scenario analysis Other techniques Forecasting with macroeconomic models Nature of macroeconomic models A simple macroeconomic model Preparing the forecast Judgmental adjustments and forecast errors Forecasting the 1980-1982 recession Decomposition of macroeconomic forecasts Accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts Forecasting asset market prices The efficient markets hypothesis Foreign exchange markets Stock market prices Commodity prices The choice between different techniques Current developments Economic forecasting and government policy |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-20-CBO)CR9780511628603 (OCoLC)967418042 (DE-599)BVBBV043927284 |
| dewey-full | 330/.01/12 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
| dewey-raw | 330/.01/12 |
| dewey-search | 330/.01/12 |
| dewey-sort | 3330 11 212 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1017/CBO9780511628603 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| id | DE-604.BV043927284 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T17:48:51Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780511628603 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-029336361 |
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| publishDate | 1990 |
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| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Holden, K. Verfasser aut Economic forecasting an introduction K. Holden, D.A. Peel, and J.L. Thompson Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1990 1 online resource (ix, 213 pages) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015) Techniques Introduction to forecasting methods Why forecasts are needed Methods of forecasting A review of business forecasting techniques Econometric forecasting Evaluating forecasts Time-series methods Stochastic models of time series Box-Jenkins modelling A worked example Vector autoregression models Cointegration Deterministic and stochastic trends Non-linear time series Combining forecasts The variance-covariance method The regression method Serial correlation problems Other methods of combination Practical suggestions for combining forecasts The Makridakis forecasting competition Applications Microeconomic forecasting Demand forecasting Sales and market share forecasting for companies Anticipations data and leading indicators Scenario analysis Other techniques Forecasting with macroeconomic models Nature of macroeconomic models A simple macroeconomic model Preparing the forecast Judgmental adjustments and forecast errors Forecasting the 1980-1982 recession Decomposition of macroeconomic forecasts Accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts Forecasting asset market prices The efficient markets hypothesis Foreign exchange markets Stock market prices Commodity prices The choice between different techniques Current developments Economic forecasting and government policy This book provides an introduction to the methods employed in forecasting the future state of the economy. It provides a comprehensive coverage of methods and applications in this fast-growing area and is intended for use in postgraduate and upper-level undergraduate courses. Part I outlines the available techniques, particularly those used in business forecasting and econometric forecasting. The state of the art in time series modelling is reviewed and includes a discussion of Box-Jenkins models, the vector autogressive approach and cointegration. Ways of combining forecasts are also examined in detail. Part II considers the most important applications of forecasting. Applications in microeconomics include demand and sales forecasting, the use of anticipations data, leading indicators and scenario analysis. In macroeconomics the emphasis is on why errors occur in forecasting asset market prices, including implications of the efficient markets hypothesis for foreign markets, stock market prices and commodity market prices. The book ends with a discussion of the appropriateness of various techniques, recent developments in forecasting, and the links between economic forecasting and government policy Mathematisches Modell Economic forecasting / Mathematical models Vorhersagetheorie (DE-588)4188671-9 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf 1\p (DE-588)4151278-9 Einführung gnd-content Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s 2\p DE-604 Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 s Vorhersagetheorie (DE-588)4188671-9 s 3\p DE-604 Peel, D. Sonstige oth Thompson, John L. Sonstige oth Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-0-521-35612-1 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-0-521-35692-3 https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511628603 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 3\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Holden, K. Economic forecasting an introduction Techniques Introduction to forecasting methods Why forecasts are needed Methods of forecasting A review of business forecasting techniques Econometric forecasting Evaluating forecasts Time-series methods Stochastic models of time series Box-Jenkins modelling A worked example Vector autoregression models Cointegration Deterministic and stochastic trends Non-linear time series Combining forecasts The variance-covariance method The regression method Serial correlation problems Other methods of combination Practical suggestions for combining forecasts The Makridakis forecasting competition Applications Microeconomic forecasting Demand forecasting Sales and market share forecasting for companies Anticipations data and leading indicators Scenario analysis Other techniques Forecasting with macroeconomic models Nature of macroeconomic models A simple macroeconomic model Preparing the forecast Judgmental adjustments and forecast errors Forecasting the 1980-1982 recession Decomposition of macroeconomic forecasts Accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts Forecasting asset market prices The efficient markets hypothesis Foreign exchange markets Stock market prices Commodity prices The choice between different techniques Current developments Economic forecasting and government policy Mathematisches Modell Economic forecasting / Mathematical models Vorhersagetheorie (DE-588)4188671-9 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4188671-9 (DE-588)4132280-0 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4151278-9 |
| title | Economic forecasting an introduction |
| title_alt | Techniques Introduction to forecasting methods Why forecasts are needed Methods of forecasting A review of business forecasting techniques Econometric forecasting Evaluating forecasts Time-series methods Stochastic models of time series Box-Jenkins modelling A worked example Vector autoregression models Cointegration Deterministic and stochastic trends Non-linear time series Combining forecasts The variance-covariance method The regression method Serial correlation problems Other methods of combination Practical suggestions for combining forecasts The Makridakis forecasting competition Applications Microeconomic forecasting Demand forecasting Sales and market share forecasting for companies Anticipations data and leading indicators Scenario analysis Other techniques Forecasting with macroeconomic models Nature of macroeconomic models A simple macroeconomic model Preparing the forecast Judgmental adjustments and forecast errors Forecasting the 1980-1982 recession Decomposition of macroeconomic forecasts Accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts Forecasting asset market prices The efficient markets hypothesis Foreign exchange markets Stock market prices Commodity prices The choice between different techniques Current developments Economic forecasting and government policy |
| title_auth | Economic forecasting an introduction |
| title_exact_search | Economic forecasting an introduction |
| title_full | Economic forecasting an introduction K. Holden, D.A. Peel, and J.L. Thompson |
| title_fullStr | Economic forecasting an introduction K. Holden, D.A. Peel, and J.L. Thompson |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic forecasting an introduction K. Holden, D.A. Peel, and J.L. Thompson |
| title_short | Economic forecasting |
| title_sort | economic forecasting an introduction |
| title_sub | an introduction |
| topic | Mathematisches Modell Economic forecasting / Mathematical models Vorhersagetheorie (DE-588)4188671-9 gnd Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Mathematisches Modell Economic forecasting / Mathematical models Vorhersagetheorie Ökonometrie Prognose Wirtschaft Einführung |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511628603 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT holdenk economicforecastinganintroduction AT peeld economicforecastinganintroduction AT thompsonjohnl economicforecastinganintroduction |