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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Konzelmann, Laura (Author), Bergmann, Michael 1979- (Author), Rattinger, Hans 1950- (Author)
Format:	Book
Language:	English
Published:	Baden-Baden Nomos 2014
Edition:	1. ed.
Series:	Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung 27
Subjects:	Bevölkerungsentwicklung Wahlverhalten Altersstruktur Politische Einstellung Deutschland
Links:	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027520838&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
Physical Description:	338 S. graph. Darst., Kt.
ISBN:	9783848708222

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Record in the Search Index

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adam_text	CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES 11 LIST OF TABLES 17 1. INTRODUCTION 19 1.1 THE PROBLEM 19 1.2 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN GERMANY: AN OVERVIEW 28 1.2.1 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 28 1.2.2 DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATE 29 1.2.3 DEVELOPMENT OF AVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCY 33 1.2.4 DEVELOPMENT OF THE MIGRATION BALANCE 34 1.2.5 DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOTAL POPULATION 36 1.2.6 DEVELOPMENT OF POPULATION AGEING 38 1.3 STRUCTURE OF THE BOOK 42 2. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 45 2.1 SCOPE OF THE CHAPTER 45 2.2 EXPLAINING AGE DIFFERENCES IN POLITICAL BEHAVIOR AND POLITICAL ATTITUDES 46 2.2.1 AGE EFFECTS 46 2.2.2 COHORT EFFECTS 49 2.3 IMPLICATIONS FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS 51 3. DETECTING POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AT THE AGGREGATE LEVEL 55 3.1 SCOPE OF THE CHAPTER 55 3.2 DATA AND RESEARCH STRATEGY 57 3.3 OVERVIEW OF POLITICAL AND CONTEXT CHARACTERISTICS IN REGIONS WITH AN EXTREME AGE STRUCTURE 60 3.4 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE CHANGING SOCIAL-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 65 3.5 CONSEQUENCES FOR TURNOUT 74 3.5.1 DESCRIPTION OF TURNOUT IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS 74 3.5.2 CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSES OF TURNOUT DIFFERENCES 83 7 HTTP://D-NB.INFO/1055968342 3.5.3 LONGITUDINAL ANALYSES OF TURNOUT CHANGES 87 3.6 CONSEQUENCES FOR THE PARTY VOTE 92 3.6.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE PARTY VOTE IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS 92 3.6.2 CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSES OF PARTY VOTE DIFFERENCES 106 3.6.3 LONGITUDINAL ANALYSES OF PARTY VOTE CHANGES 115 3.7 SUMMARY 124 4. DETECTING POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE USING THE REPRESENTATIVE ELECTORAL STATISTICS (CO-AUTHORED BY CORINA WAGNER) 127 4.1 SCOPE OF THE CHAPTER 127 4.2 DATA AND RESEARCH STRATEGY 129 4.2.1 DATA SOURCES 129 4.2.2 WEIGHTING PROCEDURE 133 4.2.3 REDUCTION OF CASES 134 4.2.4 RESEARCH STRATEGY 135 4.3 CONSEQUENCES FOR TURNOUT 13 7 4.3.1 EXPLANATORY POWER OF THE COHORT ANALYTIC MODEL FOR TURNOUT 137 4.3.2 NET EFFECTS ON TURNOUT 139 4.3.2.1 COMPUTATION OF NET EFFECTS 139 4.3.2.2 NET EFFECTS OF PERIOD ON TURNOUT 140 4.3.2.3 NET EFFECTS OF COHORT ON TURNOUT 141 4.3.2.4 NET EFFECTS OF AGE ON TURNOUT 144 4.3.3 POLARIZATION OF TURNOUT 146 4.3.4 FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF TURNOUT 148 4.3.4.1 ASSUMPTIONS 148 4.3.4.2 PREDICTED TURNOUT RATES 150 4.3.4.3 AGEING OF (ELIGIBLE) VOTERS 152 4.3.4.4 FUTURE POLARIZATION OF TURNOUT 153 4.4 CONSEQUENCES FOR THE PARTY VOTE 155 4.4.1 EXPLANATORY POWER OF THE COHORT ANALYTIC MODEL FOR THE PARTY VOTE 155 4.4.2 NET EFFECTS ON THE PARTY VOTE 157 4.4.2.1 NET EFFECTS OF PERIOD ON THE PARTY VOTE 157 4.4;2.2 NET EFFECTS OF COHORT ON THE PARTY VOTE 160 4.4.2.3 NET EFFECTS OF AGE ON THE PARTY VOTE 165 4.4.3 POLARIZATION OF THE PARTY VOTE 169 4.4.4 FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF THE PARTY VOTE 174 4.5 SUMMARY 179 8 5. DETECTING POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AT THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL 183 5.1 SCOPE OF THE CHAPTER 183 5.2 DATA AND RESEARCH STRATEGY 185 5.3 AGE-SPECIFIC DIFFERENCES IN POLITICAL ATTITUDES 189 5.3.1 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 189 5.3.2 EVALUATIONS OF THE WELFARE STATE 192 5.3.2.1 SALIENCE OF DIFFERENT POLICY AREAS 192 5.3.2.2 DESIRED GOVERNMENT RESPONSIBILITY FOR DIFFERENT POLICY AREAS 196 5.3.2.3 DESIRED GOVERNMENT SPENDING FOR DIFFERENT POLICY AREAS 199 5.3.2.4 SATISFACTION ABOUT DIFFERENT POLICY AREAS 201 5.3.2.5 FEARS ABOUT OWN OLD AGE 203 5.3.3 ASSESSING PARTY COMPETENCES 205 5.3.4 POLITICAL ATTITUDES, VALUE ORIENTATIONS, AND PERCEPTIONS 213 5.4 CONSEQUENCES FOR TURNOUT 218 5.4.1 TURNOUT BY AGE 218 5.4.2 DETERMINANTS OF TURNOUT 220 5.4.3 MULTIVARIATE ANALYSES OF TURNOUT 223 5.5 CONSEQUENCES FOR THE PARTY VOTE 232 5.5.1 PARTY VOTE BY AGE 232 5.5.2 DETERMINANTS OF THE PARTY VOTE 234 5.5.3 MULTIVARIATE ANALYSES OF THE PARTY VOTE 2-36 5.6 SUMMARY 252 6. CONCLUSIONS 255 APPENDIX A - ADDITIONAL TABLES AND FIGURES 263 APPENDIX B - PROCEDURE OF SUBSTITUTING MISSING RES DATA 317 APPENDIX C - EXTRACT FROM THE QUESTIONNAIRE 321 REFERENCES 327 INDEX 336 9
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author	Konzelmann, Laura Bergmann, Michael 1979- Rattinger, Hans 1950-
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dewey-tens	320 - Political science (Politics and government)
discipline	Politologie Soziologie
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series	Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung
series2	Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung
spellingShingle	Konzelmann, Laura Bergmann, Michael 1979- Rattinger, Hans 1950- Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences Studien zur Wahl- und Einstellungsforschung Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Wahlverhalten (DE-588)4079009-5 gnd Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 gnd Politische Einstellung (DE-588)4076217-8 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4079009-5 (DE-588)4124541-6 (DE-588)4076217-8 (DE-588)4011882-4
title	Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences
title_auth	Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences
title_exact_search	Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences
title_full	Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences Laura Konzelmann ; Michael Bergmann ; Hans Rattinger
title_fullStr	Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences Laura Konzelmann ; Michael Bergmann ; Hans Rattinger
title_full_unstemmed	Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences Laura Konzelmann ; Michael Bergmann ; Hans Rattinger
title_short	Demographic change in Germany - its political consequences
title_sort	demographic change in germany its political consequences
topic	Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Wahlverhalten (DE-588)4079009-5 gnd Altersstruktur (DE-588)4124541-6 gnd Politische Einstellung (DE-588)4076217-8 gnd
topic_facet	Bevölkerungsentwicklung Wahlverhalten Altersstruktur Politische Einstellung Deutschland
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027520838&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
volume_link	(DE-604)BV021735921
work_keys_str_mv	AT konzelmannlaura demographicchangeingermanyitspoliticalconsequences AT bergmannmichael demographicchangeingermanyitspoliticalconsequences AT rattingerhans demographicchangeingermanyitspoliticalconsequences

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