Demand and supply integration: the key to world-class demand forecasting
Gespeichert in:
| Beteilige Person: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2013
|
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=026926201&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Umfang: | xxvii, 244 pages illustrations 24cm |
| ISBN: | 9780133088014 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Demand and supply integration
Autor: Moon, Mark A
Jahr: 2013
Contents
Preface.....................................................................................xxi
Chapter 1 Demand/Supply Integration.................................................1
The Idea Behind DSI...........................................................2
How DSI Is Different from S OP......................................3
Signals that Demand and Supply Are Not
Effectively Integrated...........................................................5
The Ideal Picture of Demand Supply Integration...............6
DSI Across the Supply Chain.............................................11
Typical DSI Aberrations.....................................................14
DSI Principles.....................................................................18
Critical Components of DSI...............................................20
Portfolio and Product Review..................................21
Demand Review.......................................................22
Supply Review...........................................................23
Reconciliation Review..............................................24
Executive DSI Review..............................................25
Characteristics of Successful DSI Implementations.........26
DSI Summary.....................................................................29
Chapter 2 Demand Forecasting as a Management Proces..............31
What Is Demand Forecasting?...........................................32
Defining Some Key Terms.................................................35
Forecasting Level.....................................................36
Forecasting Horizon.................................................36
Forecasting Interval..................................................38
Forecasting Form.....................................................38
How Forecasts Are Used by Different
Functions in the Firm.........................................................40
The Forecasting Hierarchy.................................................40
Managing the Forecasting Process.....................................44
The Nature of the Customer Base...........................44
The Nature of the Available Data............................45
The Nature of the Products......................................47
The Role of Forecasting Systems.......................................49
Forecasting Techniques......................................................53
The Need to Measure Performance..................................55
Summary.............................................................................56
Chapter 3 Quantitative Forecasting Techniques...............................59
The Role of Quantitative Forecasting................................60
Time Series Analysis...........................................................61
Naive Forecast..........................................................63
Average as a Time Series Technique.......................64
Moving Average as a Time Series Technique..........68
Exponential Smoothing............................................72
Regression Analysis.............................................................84
Summary.............................................................................90
Chapter 4 Qualitative Forecasting Techniques..................................93
What Is Qualitative Forecasting?.......................................93
Who Does Qualitative Forecasting?..................................96
Advantages of Qualitative Forecasting Techniques..........97
Problems with Qualitative Forecasting Techniques..........98
Large Amounts of Complex Information.................98
Information Limitations...........................................99
Cost Issues..............................................................100
Failure to Recognize Patterns................................100
Personal Agendas....................................................101
Summary: Qualitative Technique Advantages
and Problems....................................................................103
Qualitative Techniques and Tools....................................103
Jury of Executive Opinion......................................104
Delphi Method.......................................................107
Salesforce Composite.............................................109
Summary...........................................................................116
Chapter 5 Incorporating Market Intelligence
into the Forecast.................................................................119
What Is Market Intelligence?...........................................120
Bottom-Up versus Top-Down Forecasts.........................121
What Do Demand Forecasters Need to Do?..................123
Customer-Generated Forecasts.......................................124
Should We Get Forecasts from Customers?.........126
If We Do Decide We Want Forecasts
from Customers, Which Customers
Should We Work With?..........................................129
How Should This Forecasting Customer
Collaboration Take Place?......................................130
How Should the Customer-Generated
Forecasts Be Incorporated into Our
Process?...................................................................132
Summary of Customer-Generated
Forecasts.................................................................132
Putting It All Together into a Final Forecast..................133
Summary...........................................................................137
Chapter 6 Performance Measurement...............................................139
Why Bother Measuring Forecasting Performance..........140
Process Metrics Versus Outcome Metrics.......................142
Measuring Forecasting Performance...............................144
The Building Block: Percent Error........................145
Identifying Bias.......................................................149
Measuring Accuracy...............................................154
Outcome Metrics-The Results of
Forecasting Excellence.....................................................165
Summary...........................................................................168
Chapter 7 World-Class Demand Forecasting...................................171
Functional Integration......................................................175
DSI Processes.........................................................175
Organization............................................................178
Accountability.........................................................181
Role of Forecasting versus Planning......................183
Training...................................................................185
Summary: How Companies Can Improve
on the Functional Integration Dimension.............187
Approach...........................................................................188
Forecasting Point of View......................................189
What Is Being Forecasted?....................................192
Forecasting Hierarchy............................................194
Statistical Analysis...................................................196
Incorporation of Qualitative Input.........................197
Summary: How Companies Can Improve
on the Approach Dimension..................................199
Systems..............................................................................201
Level of Integration................................................202
Access to Performance Measurement Reports.....205
Data Integrity..........................................................207
System Infrastructure.............................................209
Summary: How Companies Can Improve
on the Systems Dimension.....................................209
Performance Measurement..............................................211
How Is Performance Measured?...........................211
How Is Performance Rewarded?...........................213
Summary: How Companies Can
Improve on the Performance
Measurement Dimension.......................................215
Summary of World Class Forecasting..............................215
Chapter 8 Bringing It Back to Demand/Supply
Integration: Managing the Demand Review..................219
Phase I: Preparation of Initial Forecast...........................220
Phase II: Gap Analysis......................................................223
Phase III: Demand Review Meeting...............................230
Conclusions.......................................................................235
Index......................................................................................237
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Moon, Mark A. 1955- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)136743730 |
| author_facet | Moon, Mark A. 1955- |
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| author_sort | Moon, Mark A. 1955- |
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| bvnumber | BV041480218 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HB801 |
| callnumber-raw | HB801 |
| callnumber-search | HB801 |
| callnumber-sort | HB 3801 |
| callnumber-subject | HB - Economic Theory and Demography |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)859541254 (DE-599)BVBBV041480218 |
| dewey-full | 338.5/210112 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 338 - Production |
| dewey-raw | 338.5/210112 |
| dewey-search | 338.5/210112 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.5 6210112 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV041480218 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T16:48:22Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780133088014 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 012043608 |
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| physical | xxvii, 244 pages illustrations 24cm |
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| spellingShingle | Moon, Mark A. 1955- Demand and supply integration the key to world-class demand forecasting Supply and demand Forecasting Management Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Planungsmanagement (DE-588)4234497-9 gnd Supply Chain Management (DE-588)4684051-5 gnd Nachfrageermittlung (DE-588)4134942-8 gnd Bestandsplanung (DE-588)4242282-6 gnd Nachfragelenkung (DE-588)4171013-7 gnd Materialflussplanung (DE-588)4169079-5 gnd Bestandsmanagement (DE-588)4423366-8 gnd Nachfrageverhalten (DE-588)4200451-2 gnd Materialbedarfsplanung (DE-588)4037927-9 gnd Marktprognose (DE-588)4213774-3 gnd |
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| title | Demand and supply integration the key to world-class demand forecasting |
| title_auth | Demand and supply integration the key to world-class demand forecasting |
| title_exact_search | Demand and supply integration the key to world-class demand forecasting |
| title_full | Demand and supply integration the key to world-class demand forecasting Mark A. Moon |
| title_fullStr | Demand and supply integration the key to world-class demand forecasting Mark A. Moon |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demand and supply integration the key to world-class demand forecasting Mark A. Moon |
| title_short | Demand and supply integration |
| title_sort | demand and supply integration the key to world class demand forecasting |
| title_sub | the key to world-class demand forecasting |
| topic | Supply and demand Forecasting Management Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Planungsmanagement (DE-588)4234497-9 gnd Supply Chain Management (DE-588)4684051-5 gnd Nachfrageermittlung (DE-588)4134942-8 gnd Bestandsplanung (DE-588)4242282-6 gnd Nachfragelenkung (DE-588)4171013-7 gnd Materialflussplanung (DE-588)4169079-5 gnd Bestandsmanagement (DE-588)4423366-8 gnd Nachfrageverhalten (DE-588)4200451-2 gnd Materialbedarfsplanung (DE-588)4037927-9 gnd Marktprognose (DE-588)4213774-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Supply and demand Forecasting Management Prognoseverfahren Planungsmanagement Supply Chain Management Nachfrageermittlung Bestandsplanung Nachfragelenkung Materialflussplanung Bestandsmanagement Nachfrageverhalten Materialbedarfsplanung Marktprognose |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=026926201&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT moonmarka demandandsupplyintegrationthekeytoworldclassdemandforecasting |