Verfügbarkeit: 2052 | Technische Universität München

2052: a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"]

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Beteilige Person:	Randers, Jørgen 1945- (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	White River Junction, Vt. Chelsea Green Publ. 2012
Schlagwörter:	Prognose 2013-2052 Prognose Economic history / 21st century Economic forecasting Wirtschaft. Geschichte Zivilisation Weltwirtschaft Szenario Umweltpolitik Klimaänderung Bevölkerungswachstum Weltmodell Ökologie Wirtschaftsentwicklung Globalisierung Wirtschaftswachstum Menschheit Nachhaltigkeit Grenzen des Wachstums Zukunft Energieverbrauch Rohstoffbedarf Umweltschaden Weltbevölkerung
Links:	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024979438&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
Umfang:	XVI, 392 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt.
ISBN:	9781603584678 9781603584210

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Datensatz im Suchindex

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adam_text	CONTENTS Acknowledgments xi Preface: What Will the Future Bring? xiii PART 1: BACKGROUND 1 Worrying about the Future 1 Why Now? 3 Is a Forecast Possible? 4 Why Forty Years? 6 Bases for an Educated Guess 7 Full Steam Ahead with a Peaceful Mind 10 2 Five Big Issues toward 2052 11 The Sustainability Revolution 12 Five Central Issues Involving System Change 13 The End of Capitalism? 14 Glimpse 2-1 : The Dark Decades: Privilege and Polarization 15 The End of Economic Growth? 23 Glimpse 2-2: Constraining Asian Consumption 23 The End of Slow Democracy? 30 Glimpse 2-3: Shuffling toward Sustainability 31 The End of Generational Harmony? 36 Glimpse 2-4: Intergenerational War for Equity 36 The End of Stable Climate? 40 Glimpse 2-5: Extreme Weather in 2052 43 PART 2: MY GLOBAL FORECAST 3 The Logic behind My Forecast 53 The Guiding Star 54 A Broad-Brush Picture 54 A Brief Summary of My Story 55 The Deterministic Backbone 56 Linear Presentation of a Circular Maze 57 The Mathematical Formulation 58 A Final Note on the Data Base 59 4 Population and Consumption to 2052 62 Population Will Peak 62 Workforce Will Peak a Little Earlier 65 Productivity Will Grow, but Meet Obstacles 67 Production (GDP) Will Grow, but More and More Slowly 70 Glimpse 4-1: The End of Uneconomic Growth 73 Investments — Forced and Voluntary — Will Increase 78 New Costs Will Emerge 81 Adaptation and Disaster Costs Will Explode 86 The State Will Get More Involved 88 Glimpse 4-2: Light Green Growth 90 Consumption Will Stagnate — and Fall in Some Places 93 Energy and CO2 to 2052 99 Energy Efficiency Will Continue to Rise 99 Energy Use Will Grow, but Not Forever 102 Climate Intensity Will Be Reduced by Renewables 103 Glimpse 5-1: The Road to PV 106 Glimpse 5-2: The Death of Nuclear 110 CO2 Emissions from Energy Will Peak in 2030 116 Temperature Increase Will Exceed Plus 2°C 118 Plus 2°C Will Cause Real Difficulties 120 Glimpse 5-3: Troubled Arctic Waters 121 Glimpse 5-4: The Flight to the City 125 Food and Footprint to 2052 130 Food Production Will Satisfy Reduced Demand 130 Biofuels and White Meat Will Advance 133 Glimpse 6-1: Expensive Oil = Expensive Food 133 Glimpse 6-2: The Limits to Protein 138 Commercial Fish Stocks Will Be Confined to Regulated Fisheries 139 Planetary Ecosystems Will Suffer 143 Glimpse 6-3: The Race to Lose Last 144 Unused Bio-capacity Will Plunge 149 Glimpse 6-4: Urban Mining of Metals 151 Glimpse 6-5: Nature Limited to Parks 156 The Nonmaterial Future to 2052 160 Smaller GDP: Milder Push against Global Limits 161 Slower Growth in Productivity 162 Tensions from Declining Consumption 162 Prevalence of Short-Termism 164 Stronger Government 166 Forced Redistribution 167 Megacity Environment 169 Glimpse 7-1: Megacity Living and Externalization of the Mind 171 Omnipresent Internet 174 Disappearing Charms 175 Better Health 177 Glimpse 7-2: Individual Health from Public Care 178 Armed Forces Fighting New Threats 181 Glimpse 7-3: The Future of War and the Rise of Robots 182 Glimpse 7-4: Military for Sustainability 185 8 The Zeitgeist in 2052 190 Fragmentation: More Focus on Local Solutions 190 Glimpse 8-1: Scotland Joins New Europe 191 Glimpse 8-2: The End of Mediterranean Disparity 196 Glimpse 8-3: Slum Urbanism in Africa 200 A New Paradigm: Less Fixation with Economic Growth 203 Glimpse 8-4: Valuing the Whole 205 Modified Capitalism: A Stronger Role for Wise Government 210 Glimpse 8-5: Systemic CSR, or CSR 2.0 214 Collective Creativity: A Web of Inspired Individuals 218 Glimpse 8-6: Harnessing the Wisdom of the Crowd 218 Glimpse 8-7: Peak Youth Gaming for the Public Good 222 Intergenerational Equity: Widening the Lens 226 PART 3: ANALYSIS 9 Reflections on the Future 229 The Main Drivers 229 The Future in Graphs 231 The Cliff-Hanger 234 My Own Reactions 236 Eight Straight Questions about the Future 239 Wild Cards 250 The Path to 2052 254 Glimpse 9-1: Sudden Rush to Solar 256 Glimpse 9-2: Financing the Future 260 10 Five Regional Futures 265 Toward 2052: The United States 266 Glimpse 10-1: Bright Solar Future 270 Toward 2052: China 274 Glimpse 10-2: China — the New Hegemon 274 Toward 2052: OECD-less-US 283 Toward 2052: BRISE 288 Glimpse 10-3: Rich on Biofuels 292 Toward 2052: Rest of the World 296 11 Comparison with Other Futures 300 Testing against a Global Computer Model 300 Comparison with The Limits to Growth Studies 301 Overshoot and Collapse in Some Detail 307 Perspectives on the Second Half of the Twenty-First Century 313 Glimpse 11-1: The Fifth Cultural Step 314 Glimpse 11-2: The Third Flowering of the Tree of Life 318 12 What Should You Do? 323 What Global Society Ideally Should Have Done 325 Twenty Pieces of Personal Advice 328 Learn to Live with Impending Disaster without Losing Hope 351 Closing Words 353 Appendices 354 1. Summary 354 2. Definitions and Data Sources 356 3. Further Reading for the 2052 Glimpses 359 4. Extra Data on Fertility and Productivity 366 Notes 368 Index 377
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id	DE-604.BV040123406
illustrated	Illustrated
indexdate	2024-12-20T16:08:37Z
institution	BVB
isbn	9781603584678 9781603584210
language	English
oai_aleph_id	oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-024979438
oclc_num	796217426
open_access_boolean
owner	DE-N2 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-M49 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-523 DE-83 DE-M481 DE-Lfn1 DE-1046 DE-M382
owner_facet	DE-N2 DE-155 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-M49 DE-BY-TUM DE-384 DE-523 DE-83 DE-M481 DE-Lfn1 DE-1046 DE-M382
physical	XVI, 392 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt.
psigel	UBM-RCC
publishDate	2012
publishDateSearch	2012
publishDateSort	2012
publisher	Chelsea Green Publ.
record_format	marc
spellingShingle	Randers, Jørgen 1945- 2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] Economic history / 21st century Economic forecasting Wirtschaft. Geschichte Zivilisation (DE-588)4067906-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 gnd Umweltpolitik (DE-588)4078523-3 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd Weltmodell (DE-588)4065443-6 gnd Ökologie (DE-588)4043207-5 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 gnd Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd Menschheit (DE-588)4169436-3 gnd Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd Grenzen des Wachstums (DE-588)4113786-3 gnd Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 gnd Energieverbrauch (DE-588)4014733-2 gnd Rohstoffbedarf (DE-588)4178385-2 gnd Umweltschaden (DE-588)4117286-3 gnd Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4067906-8 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4065468-0 (DE-588)4194332-6 (DE-588)4078523-3 (DE-588)4164199-1 (DE-588)4129300-9 (DE-588)4065443-6 (DE-588)4043207-5 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4557997-0 (DE-588)4066527-6 (DE-588)4169436-3 (DE-588)4326464-5 (DE-588)4113786-3 (DE-588)4068097-6 (DE-588)4014733-2 (DE-588)4178385-2 (DE-588)4117286-3 (DE-588)4125901-4
title	2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"]
title_alt	Twentyfiftytwo Two thousand and fifty-two
title_auth	2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"]
title_exact_search	2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"]
title_full	2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] Jorgan Randers
title_fullStr	2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] Jorgan Randers
title_full_unstemmed	2052 a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"] Jorgan Randers
title_short	2052
title_sort	2052 a global forecast for the next forty years a report to the club of rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of the limits to growth
title_sub	a global forecast for the next forty years ; [a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of "The limits to growth"]
topic	Economic history / 21st century Economic forecasting Wirtschaft. Geschichte Zivilisation (DE-588)4067906-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 gnd Umweltpolitik (DE-588)4078523-3 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Bevölkerungswachstum (DE-588)4129300-9 gnd Weltmodell (DE-588)4065443-6 gnd Ökologie (DE-588)4043207-5 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Globalisierung (DE-588)4557997-0 gnd Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd Menschheit (DE-588)4169436-3 gnd Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd Grenzen des Wachstums (DE-588)4113786-3 gnd Zukunft (DE-588)4068097-6 gnd Energieverbrauch (DE-588)4014733-2 gnd Rohstoffbedarf (DE-588)4178385-2 gnd Umweltschaden (DE-588)4117286-3 gnd Weltbevölkerung (DE-588)4125901-4 gnd
topic_facet	Economic history / 21st century Economic forecasting Wirtschaft. Geschichte Zivilisation Prognose Weltwirtschaft Szenario Umweltpolitik Klimaänderung Bevölkerungswachstum Weltmodell Ökologie Wirtschaftsentwicklung Globalisierung Wirtschaftswachstum Menschheit Nachhaltigkeit Grenzen des Wachstums Zukunft Energieverbrauch Rohstoffbedarf Umweltschaden Weltbevölkerung
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024979438&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
work_keys_str_mv	AT randersjørgen 2052aglobalforecastforthenextfortyyearsareporttotheclubofromecommemoratingthe40thanniversaryofthelimitstogrowth AT randersjørgen twentyfiftytwo AT randersjørgen twothousandandfiftytwo

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