Optimal control, expectations and uncertainty:
Gespeichert in:
| Beteiligte Personen: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2009
|
| Ausgabe: | [Nachdr.] |
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020333550&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Beschreibung: | Originally published: 1989. - Includes bibliographical references |
| Umfang: | IX, 244 S. |
| ISBN: | 9780521126335 0521126339 9780521264440 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | OPTIMAL CONTROL, EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY SEAN HOLLY CENTRE FOR
ECONOMIC FORECASTING LONDON BUSINESS SCHOOL ANDREW HUGHES HALLETT
UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE THE RIGHT .,/ THE VNITERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE TO
PRINT AND SELL ALL MANNER OF BOOKS WAS GRANTED BY HENRY VIII IN ISM. THE
UNIIERSITY HAS PRINTED AND PUBLISHED CONTINUOUSLY SINCE ISM. CAMBRIDGE
UNIVERSITY PRESS CAMBRIDGE NEW YORK NEW ROCHELLE MELBOURNE SYDNEY
CONTENTS PREFACE PAGE XI 1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 THE THEORY OF ECONOMIC
POLICY AND THE LINEAR MODEL 12 2.1 THE LINEAR MODEL 12 2.2 STATE-SPACE
FORMS 13 2.2.1 DYNAMIC EQUIVALENCES 18 2.3 THE FINAL FORM 19 2.4
CONTROLLABILITY 21 2.4.1 STATIC CONTROLLABILITY 21 2.4.2 DYNAMIC (STATE)
CONTROLLABILITY 23 2.4.3 DYNAMIC (TARGET) CONTROLLABILITY 23 2.4.4
STOCHASTIC CONTROLLABILITY 25 2.4.5 PATH CONTROLLABILITY 25 2.4.6 LOCA L
PATH CONTROLLABILITY 28 2.5 AN ECONOMIC EXAMPLE 28 3 OPTIMAL-POLICY
DESIGN 31 3.1 CLASSICAL CONTROL 31 3.1.1 TRANSFER FUNCTIONS 31 3.1.2
MULTIVARIATE FEEDBACK CONTROL 33 3.1.3 STABILISABILITY 34 3.1.4 THE
DISTINCTION BETWEEN STABILISATION AND CONTROL 36 3.1.5 AN ECONOMIC
EXAMPLE 37 3.2 DETERMINISTIC OPTIMAL CONTROL BY DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING 39
3.2.1 A SCALAR EXAMPLE 43 3.3 THE MINIMUM PRINCIPLE 45 3.4 SEQUENTIAL
OPEN-LOOP OPTIMISATION 48 3.5 UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY REVISIONS 50 3.5./
FIRST-PERIOD CERTAINTY EQUIVALENCE 50 3.5.2 CERTAINTY EQUIVALENCE IN
DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING 51 VI CONTENTS 3.5.3 RESTRICTIONS ON THE USE OF
CERTAINTY EQUIVALENCE 52 3.5.4 OPTIMAL-POLICY REVISIONS 52 3.5.5
FEEDBACK-POLICY REVISIONS 55 3.6 SEQUENTIAL OPTIMISATION AND
FEEDBACK-POLICY RULES 56 3.7 OPEN-LOOP, CLOSED-LOOP AND FEEDBACK-POLICY
RULES 58 4 UNCERTAINTY AND RISK 61 4.1 INTRODUCTION 61 4.2 POLICY DESIGN
WITH INFORMATION AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY 64 4.2.1 ADDITIVE UNCERTAINTY
(INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY) 64 4.2.2 MULTIPLICATIVE UNCERTAINTY (MODEL
UNCERTAINTY) 65 4.2.3 OPTIMAL DECISIONS UNDER MULTIPLICATIVE UNCERTAINTY
66 4.2.4 A DYNAMIC-PROGRAMMING SOLUTION UNDER MULTIPLICATIVE UNCERTAINTY
67 4.3 THE EFFECTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON POLICY DESIGN 68 4.3.1
PARAMETER VARIANCES 69 4.3.2 PARAMETER COVARIANCES 71 4.3.3 INCREASING
PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY 72 4.4 POLICY SPECIFICATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY 73
4.5 RISK-AVERSE (VARIANCE-MINIMISING) POLICIES 75 4.6 RISK-SENSITIVE
DECISIONS 77 4.6.1 OPTIMAL MEAN-VARIANCE DECISIONS 77 4.6.2 TRADING
SECURITY FOR PERFORMANCE LEVEL 78 4.6.3 THE CERTAINTY-EQUIVALENT
REPARAMETERISATION 78 4.6.4 RISK-SENSITIVE POLICY REVISIONS 79 4.6.5 THE
STOCHASTIC INSEPARABILITY OF DYNAMIC RISK-SENSITIVE DECISIONS 80 4.7 THE
KALMAN FILTER AND OBSERVATION ERRORS 82 5 RISK AVERSION, PRIORITIES AND
ACHIEVEMENTS 87 5.1 INTRODUCTION 87 5.2 APPROXIMATE PRIORITIES AND
APPROXIMATE-DECISION RULES 88 5.3 RESPECIFYING THE PREFERENCE FUNCTION
90 5.4 RISK-SENSITIVE PRIORITIES: COMPUTABLE VON NEUMANN- MORGENSTERN
UTILITY FUNCTIONS 92 5.5 RISK-BEARING IN ECONOMIC THEORY 95 5.6 THE
UTILITY-ASSOCIATION APPROACH TO RISK-BEARING 97 5.7 RISK MANAGEMENT IN
STATISTICAL DECISIONS 99 5.7.1 THE REGRESSION ANALOGY 99 5.7.2 THE
OPTIMAL RISK-SENSITIVITY MATRIX 101 5.7.3 A SIMPLIFICATION 102 5.8
ACHIEVEMENT INDICES 102 5.9 CONCLUSIONS: FIXED OR FLEXIBLE DECISION
RULES? 103 CONTENTS VII 6 NON-LINEAR OPTIMAL CONTROL 105 6.1
INTRODUCTION 105 6.2 NON-LINEARITIES AND CERTAINTY EQUIVALENCE 106 6.3
NON-LINEAR CONTROL BY LINEARISATION 108 6.3.1 LINEARISATION BY
STOCHASTIC PERTURBATION 109 6.3.2 A LINEARISATION IN STACKED FORM 110
6.4 NON-LINEAR CONTROL AS A NON-LINEAR PROGRAMMING PROBLEM 111 6.4.1 A
MODIFIED GRADIENT ALGORITHM 114 6.4.2 REPEATED LINEARISATION V . __ 115
7 THE LINEAR RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS MODEL 117 7.1 INTRODUCTION 117 7.2
THE RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS 118 7.3 THE GENERAL LINEAR
RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS MODEL 120 7.4 THE ANALYTIC SOLUTION OF
RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS MODELS 121 7.4.1 A FORWARD-LOOKING SOLUTION
PROCEDURE 122 7.4.2 THE FINAL-FORM RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS MODEL 123 7.4.3
A PENALTY-FUNCTION SOLUTION 124 7.4.4 MULTIPERIOD SOLUTIONS 126 7.4.5 TH
E STOCHASTIC PROPERTIES OF RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS SOLUTIONS 127 7.5
TERMINAL CONDITIONS 128 7.6 THE NUMERICAL SOLUTION OF
RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS MODELS 131 7.6.1 JACOBIAN METHODS 132 7.6.2
GENERAL FIRST-ORDER ITERATIVE METHODS 133 7.6.3 NON-LINEARITIES AND THE
EVALUATION OF MULTIPLIERS 136 7.6.4 SHOOTING METHODS 138 7.7 STOCHASTIC
SOLUTIONS OF NON-LINEAR RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS MODELS 139 7.8
CONTROLLABILITY AND THE NON-NEUTRALITY OF POLICY UNDER RATIONAL
EXPECTATIONS 141 7.8.1 DYNAMIC CONTROLLABILITY 142 7.8.2 AN EXAMPLE: THE
NON-NEUTRALITY OF MONEY 144 7.8.3 CONCLUSION: THE STOCHASTIC NEUTRALITY
OF POLICY 147 8 POLICY DESIGN FOR RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS MODELS 148 8.1
INTRODUCTION 148 8.2 THE DYNAMIC-PROGRAMMING SOLUTION 148 8.3
NON-RECURSIVE METHODS 150 8.3.1 A DIRECT METHOD 150 8.3.2 A
PENALTY-FUNCTION APPROACH 151 VIII CONTENTS 8.4 TIME INCONSISTENCY 152
8.4.1 A SCALAR DEMONSTRATION 152 8.4.2 SUBOPTIMAL VERSUS
TIME-INCONSISTENT POLICIES 153 8.4.3 A SIMPLE EXAMPLE 153 8.4.4 TH E
CASE OF ZERO POLICY-ADJUSTMENT COSTS 156 8.5 MICROECONOMIC INSTANCES OF
INCONSISTENCY 156 8.6 PRECOMMITMENT, CONSISTENT PLANNING AND CONTRACTS
159 8.7 RULES VERSUS DISCRETION 161 8.8 SEQUENTIAL OPTIMISATION AND
CLOSED-LOOP POLICIES 163 8.8.1 OPEN-LOOP DECISIONS 164 8.8.2 OPTIMAL
REVISIONS 165 8.9 SOURCES OF SUBOPTIMAL DECISIONS 167 8.10 AN
INTERPRETATION OF TIME CONSISTENCY 168 9 NON-COOPERATIVE,
FULL-INFORMATION DYNAMIC GAMES 169 9.1 INTRODUCTION 169 9.2 TYPES OF
NON-COOPERATIVE STRATEGY 171 9.2.1 THE NASH SOLUTION 171 9.2.2
SIMPLIFIED NON-COOPERATIVE SOLUTIONS 173 9.2.3 FEEDBACK-POLICY RULES 174
9.3 NASH AND STACKELBERG FEEDBACK SOLUTIONS 175 9.3.1 THE NASH CASE 176
9.3.2 THE STACKELBERG CASE 179 9.4 THE OPTIMAL OPEN-LOOP NASH SOLUTION
180 9.5 CONJECTURAL VARIATIONS 181 9.5.1 THE CONJECTURAL-VARIATIONS
EQUILIBRIUM 182 9.6 UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTATIONS 184 9.7 ANTICIPATIONS
AND THE LUCAS CRITIQUE 187 9.7.1 A HIERARCHY OF SOLUTIONS 187 9.8
STACKELBERG GAMES: THE FULL-INFORMATION CASE 189 9.9 DYNAMIC GAMES WITH
RATIONAL OBSERVERS 192 9.9.1 A DIRECT METHOD 192 9.9.2 A
PENALTY-FUNCTION METHOD 194 10 INCOMPLETE INFORMATION, BARGAINING AND
SOCIAL OPTIMA 197 10.1 INTRODUCTION 197 10.2 INCOMPLETE INFORMATION,
TIME INCONSISTENCY AND CHEATING 198 10.3 COOPERATION AND POLICY
COORDINATION 202 10.3.1 COOPERATIVE DECISION-MAKING 203 10.3.2 SOCIALLY
OPTIMAL DECISIONS 204 10.3.3 SOME EXAMPLES 206 CONTENTS IX 10.4
BARGAINING STRATEGIES 209 10.4.1 FEASIBLE POLICY BARGAINS 212 10.4.2
RATIONAL POLICY BARGAINS 212 10.4.3 RELATIONS BETWEEN BARGAINING
SOLUTIONS 214 10.5 SUSTAINING COOPERATION 215 10.5.1 AN EXAMPLE 215
10.5.2 CHEATING SOLUTIONS 216 10.5.3 THE RISK OF CHEATING 217 10.5.4
PUNISHMENT SCHEMES V __ 218 10.6 REPUTATIONAL EQUILIBRIA AND TIME
INCONSISTENCY 219 10.6.1 ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION AND UNCERTAINTY 221
10.6.2 GENERALISATIONS OF REPUTATIONAL EFFECTS 224 10.6.3 CONCLUSIONS
225 NOTES 227 REFERENCES 231 INDEX 241
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Holly, Sean Hughes Hallett, Andrew 1947- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)170354482 (DE-588)124833969 |
| author_facet | Holly, Sean Hughes Hallett, Andrew 1947- |
| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | Holly, Sean |
| author_variant | s h sh h a h ha hah |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV036461671 |
| classification_rvk | QH 721 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)552317195 (DE-599)GBV610513370 |
| dewey-full | 330.0151 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
| dewey-raw | 330.0151 |
| dewey-search | 330.0151 |
| dewey-sort | 3330.0151 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | [Nachdr.] |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV036461671 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T14:33:58Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780521126335 0521126339 9780521264440 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-020333550 |
| oclc_num | 552317195 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-11 |
| owner_facet | DE-11 |
| physical | IX, 244 S. |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | Cambridge Univ. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spellingShingle | Holly, Sean Hughes Hallett, Andrew 1947- Optimal control, expectations and uncertainty Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 gnd Wirtschaftstheorie (DE-588)4079351-5 gnd Wirtschaftsmodell (DE-588)4079348-5 gnd Optimale Kontrolle (DE-588)4121428-6 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Rationale Erwartung (DE-588)4121553-9 gnd Kontrolltheorie (DE-588)4032317-1 gnd Rationalität (DE-588)4048507-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4186957-6 (DE-588)4079351-5 (DE-588)4079348-5 (DE-588)4121428-6 (DE-588)4070864-0 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4121553-9 (DE-588)4032317-1 (DE-588)4048507-9 |
| title | Optimal control, expectations and uncertainty |
| title_auth | Optimal control, expectations and uncertainty |
| title_exact_search | Optimal control, expectations and uncertainty |
| title_full | Optimal control, expectations and uncertainty Sean Holly ; Andrew Hughes Hallett |
| title_fullStr | Optimal control, expectations and uncertainty Sean Holly ; Andrew Hughes Hallett |
| title_full_unstemmed | Optimal control, expectations and uncertainty Sean Holly ; Andrew Hughes Hallett |
| title_short | Optimal control, expectations and uncertainty |
| title_sort | optimal control expectations and uncertainty |
| topic | Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 gnd Wirtschaftstheorie (DE-588)4079351-5 gnd Wirtschaftsmodell (DE-588)4079348-5 gnd Optimale Kontrolle (DE-588)4121428-6 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Rationale Erwartung (DE-588)4121553-9 gnd Kontrolltheorie (DE-588)4032317-1 gnd Rationalität (DE-588)4048507-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Unsicherheit Wirtschaftstheorie Wirtschaftsmodell Optimale Kontrolle Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit Mathematisches Modell Rationale Erwartung Kontrolltheorie Rationalität |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020333550&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hollysean optimalcontrolexpectationsanduncertainty AT hugheshallettandrew optimalcontrolexpectationsanduncertainty |