The dynamics of car sales: a discrete choice approach
Mankiw [1982] explores the Permanent Income Hypothesis implication that durable expenditures follow an ARMA(1,1) representation. He finds that durable expenditures are represented by an AR(1) process which implies that the rate of depreciation of durables, under the PIH model, is 100%. This finding...
Gespeichert in:
| Beteiligte Personen: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.
National Bureau of Economic Research
2000
|
| Schriftenreihe: | NBER working paper series
7785 |
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w7785.pdf |
| Zusammenfassung: | Mankiw [1982] explores the Permanent Income Hypothesis implication that durable expenditures follow an ARMA(1,1) representation. He finds that durable expenditures are represented by an AR(1) process which implies that the rate of depreciation of durables, under the PIH model, is 100%. This finding presents a puzzle. Our paper builds on earlier work which attempts to explain this puzzle by considering the aggregation of the discrete dynamic choices of heterogeneous households. We implement this approach by estimating a dynamic discrete choice model of car replacement. We find that through aggregation we can explain both the AR and MA components of Mankiw's results. Further we find that our model is able to match a VAR representation of car sales, prices and income. We find that most of the variation in car sales is due to shocks which influence the replacement probability. |
| Umfang: | 35 S. graph. Darst. |
Internformat
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| 650 | 4 | |a Automobile industry and trade |z United States | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Consumers' preferences |z United States | |
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| geographic_facet | USA |
| id | DE-604.BV035046811 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T13:18:50Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
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| physical | 35 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2000 |
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| series | NBER working paper series |
| series2 | NBER working paper series |
| spelling | Adda, Jérôme Verfasser aut The dynamics of car sales a discrete choice approach Jérôme Adda ; Russell Cooper Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2000 35 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier NBER working paper series 7785 Mankiw [1982] explores the Permanent Income Hypothesis implication that durable expenditures follow an ARMA(1,1) representation. He finds that durable expenditures are represented by an AR(1) process which implies that the rate of depreciation of durables, under the PIH model, is 100%. This finding presents a puzzle. Our paper builds on earlier work which attempts to explain this puzzle by considering the aggregation of the discrete dynamic choices of heterogeneous households. We implement this approach by estimating a dynamic discrete choice model of car replacement. We find that through aggregation we can explain both the AR and MA components of Mankiw's results. Further we find that our model is able to match a VAR representation of car sales, prices and income. We find that most of the variation in car sales is due to shocks which influence the replacement probability. Automobile industry and trade United States Automobiles Purchasing United States Consumers' preferences United States USA Cooper, Russell W. 1955- Verfasser (DE-588)124082564 aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe NBER working paper series 7785 (DE-604)BV002801238 7785 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w7785.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Adda, Jérôme Cooper, Russell W. 1955- The dynamics of car sales a discrete choice approach NBER working paper series Automobile industry and trade United States Automobiles Purchasing United States Consumers' preferences United States |
| title | The dynamics of car sales a discrete choice approach |
| title_auth | The dynamics of car sales a discrete choice approach |
| title_exact_search | The dynamics of car sales a discrete choice approach |
| title_full | The dynamics of car sales a discrete choice approach Jérôme Adda ; Russell Cooper |
| title_fullStr | The dynamics of car sales a discrete choice approach Jérôme Adda ; Russell Cooper |
| title_full_unstemmed | The dynamics of car sales a discrete choice approach Jérôme Adda ; Russell Cooper |
| title_short | The dynamics of car sales |
| title_sort | the dynamics of car sales a discrete choice approach |
| title_sub | a discrete choice approach |
| topic | Automobile industry and trade United States Automobiles Purchasing United States Consumers' preferences United States |
| topic_facet | Automobile industry and trade United States Automobiles Purchasing United States Consumers' preferences United States USA |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w7785.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT addajerome thedynamicsofcarsalesadiscretechoiceapproach AT cooperrussellw thedynamicsofcarsalesadiscretechoiceapproach |