Interpreting the great moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels
"We review evidence on the Great Moderation in conjunction with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level. We combine the two types of evidence to develop a tentative story for important components of the aggregate volatility decline and its consequences. The key ingredients are decli...
Gespeichert in:
| Beteiligte Personen: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.
National Bureau of Economic Research
2008
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research
14048 |
| Links: | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w14048.pdf |
| Zusammenfassung: | "We review evidence on the Great Moderation in conjunction with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level. We combine the two types of evidence to develop a tentative story for important components of the aggregate volatility decline and its consequences. The key ingredients are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility -- most dramatically in the durable goods sector -- but the absence of a decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s much of the moderation reflects a decline in high frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site |
| Umfang: | 37, [2] S. graph. Darst. 22 cm |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Interpreting the great moderation |b changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels |c Steven J. Davis ; James A. Kahn |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge, Mass. |b National Bureau of Economic Research |c 2008 | |
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| 490 | 1 | |a Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research |v 14048 | |
| 520 | 8 | |a "We review evidence on the Great Moderation in conjunction with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level. We combine the two types of evidence to develop a tentative story for important components of the aggregate volatility decline and its consequences. The key ingredients are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility -- most dramatically in the durable goods sector -- but the absence of a decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s much of the moderation reflects a decline in high frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kahn, James A. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Online-Ausgabe |
| 810 | 2 | |a National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.> |t NBER working paper series |v 14048 |w (DE-604)BV002801238 |9 14048 | |
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| id | DE-604.BV023593931 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T13:23:21Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016909261 |
| oclc_num | 254561122 |
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| owner_facet | DE-521 |
| physical | 37, [2] S. graph. Darst. 22 cm |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| publishDateSearch | 2008 |
| publishDateSort | 2008 |
| publisher | National Bureau of Economic Research |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research |
| spelling | Davis, Steven J. 1957- Verfasser (DE-588)129367141 aut Interpreting the great moderation changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels Steven J. Davis ; James A. Kahn Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2008 37, [2] S. graph. Darst. 22 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 14048 "We review evidence on the Great Moderation in conjunction with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level. We combine the two types of evidence to develop a tentative story for important components of the aggregate volatility decline and its consequences. The key ingredients are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility -- most dramatically in the durable goods sector -- but the absence of a decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s much of the moderation reflects a decline in high frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site Kahn, James A. Verfasser aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.> NBER working paper series 14048 (DE-604)BV002801238 14048 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w14048.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Davis, Steven J. 1957- Kahn, James A. Interpreting the great moderation changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels |
| title | Interpreting the great moderation changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels |
| title_auth | Interpreting the great moderation changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels |
| title_exact_search | Interpreting the great moderation changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels |
| title_full | Interpreting the great moderation changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels Steven J. Davis ; James A. Kahn |
| title_fullStr | Interpreting the great moderation changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels Steven J. Davis ; James A. Kahn |
| title_full_unstemmed | Interpreting the great moderation changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels Steven J. Davis ; James A. Kahn |
| title_short | Interpreting the great moderation |
| title_sort | interpreting the great moderation changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels |
| title_sub | changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w14048.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT davisstevenj interpretingthegreatmoderationchangesinthevolatilityofeconomicactivityatthemacroandmicrolevels AT kahnjamesa interpretingthegreatmoderationchangesinthevolatilityofeconomicactivityatthemacroandmicrolevels |