The politics of exchange rates in developing countries: political cycles and domestic institutions
Gespeichert in:
| Beteilige Person: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Hochschulschrift/Dissertation Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Heidelberg
Physica-Verl.
2006
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Contributions to economics
|
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015518508&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Umfang: | 1 Online-Ressource |
| ISBN: | 3790817155 9783790817157 9783790817164 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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Table of contents
Acknowledgements V
List of abbreviations XI
1 General introduction 1
1.1 The context 1
1.2 The aim of the thesis 2
1.3 The structure of the thesis 5
2 The normative and the positive view on exchange rate policy 13
2.1 Introduction to chapter 2 13
2.2 Economic treatment of exchange rate regime choice 15
2.2.1 The optimum currency area hypothesis 15
2.2.2 The Mundell Fleming framework 16
2.2.3 Credibility, reputation, and time consistency 16
2.2.4 The bipolar view 18
2.3 The political and institutional hypothesis 19
3 Fear of floating and fear of pegging: How important is politics?. 23
3.1 Introduction to chapter 3 23
3.2 Fear of devaluing 24
3.2.1 Economic effects of devaluations 25
3.2.2 Political costs of devaluations 26
3.3 The economic rationale for exchange rate stabilization 28
3.4 Political reasons for reneging on exchange rate policy 31
3.4.1 The study by Alesina and Wagner (2003) 31
3.4.2 Democracy and the propensity to renege 32
3.4.3 Political instability and the propensity to renege 34
3.5 Presentation of the dataset 37
3.5.1 Exchange rate regime classifications 37
3.5.2 Dependent variable 39
3.5.3 Explanatory variables 41
3.6 Estimation method and regression results 46
3.6.1 Methodological issues on binary response models 46
VIII Table of contents
3.6.2 Estimation results 47
3.6.3 Regression diagnostics and robustness checks 54
3.7 Discussion of findings 58
3.A Appendix to chapter 3 61
4 Political uncertainty and speculative attacks 63
4.1 Introduction to chapter 4 63
4.2 A political economic perspective on currency crises 64
4.3 To devalue or to defend? 69
4.4 Previous research on the political economy of exchange rates 72
4.4.1 Literature on the political economy of exchange rate regime
choice 73
4.4.2 Literature on the political economy of speculative attacks 77
5 Developing a theory of currency peg duration 89
5.1 Introduction to chapter 5 89
5.2 Elections and changes of policymakers 89
5.2.1 The political business cycle theory 90
5.2.2 Political opportunism and exchange rate policymaking 92
5.2.3 The partisan theory 95
5.2.4 Partisan interests and exchange rate policymaking 96
5.3 Institutions and processes 99
5.3.1 Categories of theories 99
5.3.2 Veto players 101
5.3.3 Central bank independence 105
5.3.4 Democratic and authoritarian regimes 108
5.3.5 Political instability 110
5.4 Private groups and interests 113
5.4.1 Characteristic features of interest group lobbying 113
5.4.2 Limitations of interest group lobbying 114
5.4.3 Specifying interest groups' exchange rate preferences 116
5.4.4 Implications for the sustainability of currency pegs 118
5.5 Overview of hypotheses 120
6 The determinants of fixed exchange rate regime duration:
A survival analysis 123
6.1 Introduction to chapter 6 123
6.2 The variables definition 125
6.2.1 Measuring exchange rate regime longevity 125
6.2.2 Measuring political, institutional, and interest group
characteristics 127
6.2.3 Macroeconomic, structural, and financial variables 130
Table of contents IX
6.3 Modeling exchange rate regime duration 134
6.3.1 The concept of survival analysis 134
6.3.2 Mathematical components of survival analysis 136
6.3.3 Estimating survivor and hazard functions 138
6.3.4 The Cox model 139
6.4 Estimation results 141
6.4.1 Nonparametric analysis with the Kaplan Meier estimator. 141
6.4.2 Descriptive statistics on fixed exchange rate regime periods 146
6.4.3 Results of the Cox estimates 147
6.5 Testing for misspecification 156
6.5.1 Motivation for employing an alternative specification 156
6.5.2 Results for specification tests 158
6.6 Hypotheses verification 160
6.7 The politics of speculative attacks 163
6.7.1 Identifying speculative attacks 163
6.7.2 Results of the speculative attack specification 168
6.7.3 Findings for an alternative speculative attack indicator 174
6.8 Summary of results 177
6.A Appendix to chapter 6 178
7 Political cycles and the real exchange rate 187
7.1 Introduction to chapter 7 187
7.2 Elections and currency markets 188
7.2.1 Politics and currency markets 188
7.2.2 Theoretical models on political exchange rate cycles 191
7.2.3 The empirical literature on political exchange rate cycles. 195
7.3 The data 198
7.3.1 Rationalizing the choice of the dependent variable 199
7.3.2 Graphical data analysis 200
7.3.3 Explanatory variables 203
7.3.4 The logic of lagged dependent variables 205
7.4 Methodological issues in TSCS analysis 206
7.4.1 Testing for stationarity 206
7.4.2 Basic model selection 211
7.4.3 Error specification 216
7.5 Empirical results 218
7.6 Robustness checks 221
7.6.1 Exchange rate regime 221
7.6.2 Degree of central bank independence 223
7.6.3 US elections 225
7.6.4 Competitiveness of elections 226
X Table of contents
7.6.5 Endogenous election timing 227
7.7 Summary of chapter 7 230
7.A Appendix to chapter 7 232
8 Conclusion and discussion 237
8.1 Main contributions to the literature 237
8.2 Discussion of findings and open issues 240
References 243 |
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| spelling | Setzer, Ralph 1975- Verfasser (DE-588)134244613 aut The politics of exchange rates in developing countries political cycles and domestic institutions Ralph Setzer Heidelberg Physica-Verl. 2006 1 Online-Ressource txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Contributions to economics Zugl.: Hohenheim, Univ., Diss., 2006 Wechselkurspolitik (DE-588)4131291-0 gnd rswk-swf Politische Ökonomie (DE-588)4115586-5 gnd rswk-swf Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Entwicklungsländer (DE-588)4014954-7 g Wechselkurspolitik (DE-588)4131291-0 s Politische Ökonomie (DE-588)4115586-5 s DE-604 https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 Verlag Volltext HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015518508&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Setzer, Ralph 1975- The politics of exchange rates in developing countries political cycles and domestic institutions Wechselkurspolitik (DE-588)4131291-0 gnd Politische Ökonomie (DE-588)4115586-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4131291-0 (DE-588)4115586-5 (DE-588)4014954-7 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | The politics of exchange rates in developing countries political cycles and domestic institutions |
| title_auth | The politics of exchange rates in developing countries political cycles and domestic institutions |
| title_exact_search | The politics of exchange rates in developing countries political cycles and domestic institutions |
| title_full | The politics of exchange rates in developing countries political cycles and domestic institutions Ralph Setzer |
| title_fullStr | The politics of exchange rates in developing countries political cycles and domestic institutions Ralph Setzer |
| title_full_unstemmed | The politics of exchange rates in developing countries political cycles and domestic institutions Ralph Setzer |
| title_short | The politics of exchange rates in developing countries |
| title_sort | the politics of exchange rates in developing countries political cycles and domestic institutions |
| title_sub | political cycles and domestic institutions |
| topic | Wechselkurspolitik (DE-588)4131291-0 gnd Politische Ökonomie (DE-588)4115586-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wechselkurspolitik Politische Ökonomie Entwicklungsländer Hochschulschrift |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1716-3 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=015518508&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT setzerralph thepoliticsofexchangeratesindevelopingcountriespoliticalcyclesanddomesticinstitutions |