LIPRO 2.0: an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands
Gespeichert in:
| Beteiligte Personen: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Amsterdam u.a.
Swets & Zeitlinger
1991
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Stichting Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut: Publications of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and the Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS)
23. |
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=005827208&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Beschreibung: | Diskette: 5,25" |
| Umfang: | 245 S. graph. Darst. 1 Diskette |
| ISBN: | 9026512414 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a LIPRO 2.0 |b an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands |c Evert van Imhoff ; Nico Keilman |
| 264 | 1 | |a Amsterdam u.a. |b Swets & Zeitlinger |c 1991 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | PART I : INTRODUCTION 1
1. Aims and scope 3
1.1. Introduction 3
1.2. Problem formulation 4
1.3. LIPRO 5
1.4. Outline of this book 6
2. Household models: a survey 9
2.1. Concepts 9
2.2. Definitions 10
2.3. A typology of household models 11
2.4. Static household models 12
2.5. Dynamic household models 13
2.6. Comparison 15
PART II : THEORETICAL ISSUES 17
3. A characterization of multidimensional projection models 19
4. The exponential and the linear model 23
4.1. Preliminaries 24
4.2. Formulation of the exponential model 26
4.2.1. Formulas for age groups x 1 26
4.2.2. Formulas for the youngest age group 27
4.2.3. Formulas for a singular intensity matrix 28
4.3. Formulation of the linear model 29
4.4. Computing rates from events 31
4.5. On the computation of exp[X] and inv[X] 32
Appendix: Calculating sojourn times for a Markov process with
uniform entries and intensity matrix of any rank 33
5. The consistency algorithm 43
5.1. Notation 44
5.2. Formulation of the consistency problem 45
5.3. Solution to the consistency problem for a specific
class of objective functions 45
5.3.1. A specific class of objective functions 45
5.3.2. Interpretation of the parameter p 46
5.3.3. Comparison with the unidimensional
harmonic mean method 47
5.3.4. Relationship between age specific and
aggregate adjustment factors 47
5.4. From adjusted events to adjusted rates 48
6. Some issues in multidimensional life table analysis 51
6.1. Interpretation of life tables in LIPRO 51
6.2. Determining the radix of the life table 51
6.3. Handling the highest age group 53
6.4. Calculating mean ages 54
6.5. Fertility indicators 54
6.6. Experience tables 55
PART III : APPLICATION 57
7. The specification of the state space in the household model .... 59
7.1. General considerations 59
7.2. The specification of household positions 61
7.3. Household events 62
7.4. Consistency relations 68
8. From data to input parameters 73
8.1. Introduction 73
8.2. The Housing Demand Survey of 1985/1986
(WBO 1985/1986) 73
8.3. The initial population 74
8.4. Estimation of jump intensities 74
8.4.1. Estimation of transition probabilities 74
8.4.2. From transition probabilities to jump
intensities 76
8.4.3. Adjusting the intensities to achieve
internal and external consistency 79
9. Demographic scenarios 81
9.1. On the term scenario 81
9.2. Jump intensities and the multidimensional life table .... 81
9.3. Five demographic scenarios 82
9.3.1. Constant Scenario 83
9.3.2. Realistic Scenario 83
9.3.3. Swedish Scenario 84
9.3.4. Fertility Scenario 84
9.3.5. Mortality Scenario 84
9.4. Quantification of the scenarios 84
10. Household projections: results 87
10.1. The Realistic Scenario 87
10.2. A comparison of the five scenarios 92
10.3. The effect of a particular model specification 100
10.4. Comparison with the official NCBS population forecast 101
11. Household projections and social security 105
11.1. Demography and social security 106
11.1.1. General 106
11.1.2. Previous studies for the Netherlands 107
11.1.3. International comparative studies 112
11.1.4. Conclusions 114
11.2. Method 115
11.3. Illustrative social security projections 118
11.3.1. Old age pensions 119
11.3.2. Survivor pensions and social welfare 122
11.3.3. The usefulness of including household
structures in social security projections 122
12. Summary and concluding remarks 127
PART IV : LIPRO USER S GUIDE 133
13. Introduction and overview 135
13.1. Introduction 135
13.2. Hardware requirements 136
13.3. Installation 137
13.4. Menus 138
13.5. Command bars 138
13.6. Edit screens 138
13.7. Directory screens 139
13.8. Browse 141
13.9. Editing ASCII files 141
13.10. Output files 143
13.11. Turbo Pascal error codes 143
14. Getting started 145
14.1. The MAIN menu 145
14.2. Basic input files 147
14.2.1. The definition file 147
14.2.2. The parameter file 148
14.3. The DEFINITIONS menu 150
14.4. The STATE SPACE menu 151
14.4.1. Ranges and default values 153
14.4.2. Example 154
14.5. The PARAMETERS menu 154
14.5.1. Ranges and default values 155
14.5.2. Example 155
14.6. State labels and variable indicators 156
15. Preparing data 159
15.1. The EDIT DATA menu 160
15.1.1. Edit mode 162
15.2. The CONVERT menu 163
15.2.1. Example 167
15.3. The RATES menu 168
16. Implementation of the consistency algorithm 171
16.1. The input file for the consistency algorithm 172
16.2. Formulas for consistency relations 173
16.3. Passive consistency relations 174
16.4. Formulas for endogenous constants 175
16.5. Endogenous constants varying over time 176
16.6. Comments in the input file 177
16.7. A complete example 177
17. Setting scenarios 181
17.1. Overview of the SCENARIOS command 182
17.2. The input file for the SCENARIOS command 183
17.2.1. Assignment formulas for rates 185
17.2.2. Assignment formulas for endogenous
constants 186
17.3. Example 186
17.4. The SCENARIOS menu 189
18. Projection 191
19. Analysis 193
19.1. The ANALYSIS menu 194
19.2. The TABLES command 194
19.2.1. Input files for the TABLES command 195
19.2.2. Default values for parameters in TABLES
input files 197
19.2.3. The TABLES menu 197
19.2.4. Example 199
19.3. The AGGREGATE command 199
19.3.1. The AGGREGATE input file 199
19.3.2. Default values for parameters
in AGGREGATE input files 202
19.3.3. The AGGREGATE menu 203
19.4. The LIFE TABLE ANALYSIS command 204
19.4.1. The RATES command 205
19.4.2. The DISTRIBUTION OF BIRTHS
command 205
19.4.3. The EXPERIENCE TABLES command .... 206
19.4.4. Example 207
19.5. The TRANSITION PROBABILITIES command 208
19.5.1. The TRANSITION PROBABILITIES
input file 208
19.5.2. Default values for parameters in
TRANSITION PROBABILITIES input files . . 210
19.5.3. The TRANSITION PROBABILITIES menu . . 211
19.6. Exporting LIPRO results 211
20. Miscellaneous program features 213
20.1. The UTILITIES menu 213
20.2. The SCREEN COLOURS command 214
20.3. The EXECUTE A PROGRAM command 215
20.4. The MS/DOS INTERNAL COMMAND command ... 215
20.4.1. Example 216
20.5. The BIN68 program 216
21. Linking user profiles 219
21.1. The SOCPROF data files 220
21.2. Calling the SOCPROF program 222
21.3. The DEFINITIONS menu 223
21.4. The SHOW PROFILES menu 224
21.5. The EDIT PROFILE menu 225
21.5.1. The EDIT TABLE command 226
21.6. The TIME SERIES menu 227
21.7. The FULL TABLES menu 229
References 231
Author index 237
Subject index to parts I, II and III 239
Subject index to LIPRO User s Guide 243
LIST OF TABLES _
3.1. Classification of events 21
7.1. Events matrix of the household model 63
8.1. The population in private households according to age, sex,
and household position, the Netherlands, December 31, 1985 . 75
8.2. Assumptions on multiple events 78
8.3. Constraints for external consistency, 1986 1990 80
9.1. Key indicators in the five scenarios 86
10.1. Results of the Realistic Scenario 88
10.2. Results of the various scenarios, 2035 and 2050 93
10.3. Population by sex and household position, 1985 and 2035
(Constant Scenario), three model specifications 101
10.4. Comparison of LIPRO projection with NCBS forecast 102
11.1. Social security expenditures in the Netherlands,
1975 1988 106
11.2. Expenditures for and number of recipients of demographic
schemes, the Netherlands, 1975 1988 108
11.3. Projected expenditures for AOW, AWW, and ABW,
the Netherlands Ill
11.4. Average annual growth rate in public expenditure
on pensions in OECD countries 113
11.5. Public expenditures for old age pensions in selected
industrialized countries (index 1980=100) 114
11.6. Comparing social security data from different sources .... 117
11.7. Projections for old age state pensions (AOW) Realistic
Scenario 120
11.8. AOW expenditures under various scenarios 121
11.9. Projections for the sum of survivor pensions (AWW) and
welfare (ABW) Realistic Scenario 123
11.10. AWW + ABW expenditures under various scenarios 124
11.11. Four methods to project social security expenditures,
Realistic Scenario 125
19.1. Part of the output file for the TABLES command 201
21.1. Output of the TIME SERIES command 229
LIST OF FIGURES _
10.1. The population by private household position, the
Netherlands, 1985 2050 (Realistic Scenario) 90
10.2. Private households by type, the Netherlands, 1985 2050
(Realistic Scenario) 90
10.3. Age pyramid for some household positions, 1985 91
10.4. Age pyramid for some household positions, 2035
(Realistic Scenario) 91
10.5. Population by household position, 1985 and 2050,
Realistic Scenario versus Swedish Scenario 98
10.6. Households by household type, 1985 and 2050,
Realistic Scenario versus Swedish Scenario 98
10.7. Age pyramid for some household positions, 2035
(Fertility Scenario) 99
10.8. Age pyramid for some household positions, 2035
(Mortality Scenario) 99
11.1. Interrelations between demographic developments and
social security 108
14.1. The MAIN menu 145
14.2. The STATE SPACE menu 151
14.3. The DIMENSIONS command 152
14.4. The INTERNAL POSITIONS command 153
14.5. The edit screen of the PARAMETERS menu 156
15.1. The EDIT DATA menu 161
15.2. The edit mode of the EDIT DATA menu 162
15.3. The CONVERT menu 165
15.4. Example of the BROWSE command 167
15.5. Example of the EDIT INPUT FILE command 168
17.1. Three types of scenario setting 184
17.2. The SCENARIOS menu 189
19.1. The TABLES menu 200
19.2. The EDIT INPUT FILE command 200
19.3. Example 1 of the EXPERIENCE TABLES command 209
19.4. Example 2 of the EXPERIENCE TABLES command 209
21.1. The MAIN menu of the SOCPROF program 222
21.2. The EDIT PARAMETERS command 224
21.3. The SHOW PROFILES menu 224
21.4. The EDIT TABLE command of the EDIT PROFILES menu 226
21.5. The PROFILE command of the TIME SERIES menu 228
|
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| id | DE-604.BV008807878 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T09:27:22Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9026512414 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-005827208 |
| oclc_num | 260146302 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-11 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-11 |
| physical | 245 S. graph. Darst. 1 Diskette |
| publishDate | 1991 |
| publishDateSearch | 1991 |
| publishDateSort | 1991 |
| publisher | Swets & Zeitlinger |
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| series | Stichting Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut: Publications of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and the Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS) |
| series2 | Stichting Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut: Publications of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and the Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS) |
| spellingShingle | Imhoff, Evert van Keilman, Nico LIPRO 2.0 an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands Stichting Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut: Publications of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and the Population and Family Study Centre (CBGS) Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd LIPRO (DE-588)4342404-1 gnd Haushaltsstruktur (DE-588)4120431-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4342404-1 (DE-588)4120431-1 (DE-588)4042203-3 |
| title | LIPRO 2.0 an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands |
| title_auth | LIPRO 2.0 an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands |
| title_exact_search | LIPRO 2.0 an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands |
| title_full | LIPRO 2.0 an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands Evert van Imhoff ; Nico Keilman |
| title_fullStr | LIPRO 2.0 an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands Evert van Imhoff ; Nico Keilman |
| title_full_unstemmed | LIPRO 2.0 an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands Evert van Imhoff ; Nico Keilman |
| title_short | LIPRO 2.0 |
| title_sort | lipro 2 0 an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the netherlands |
| title_sub | an application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands |
| topic | Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd LIPRO (DE-588)4342404-1 gnd Haushaltsstruktur (DE-588)4120431-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Mathematisches Modell LIPRO Haushaltsstruktur Niederlande |
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| volume_link | (DE-604)BV004850960 |
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