Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Abingdon, Oxon New York, NY
Routledge
2019
|
| Series: | Working guides to estimating & forecasting
volume 5 |
| Subjects: | |
| Links: | https://learning.oreilly.com/library/view/-/9781351661287/?ar |
| Summary: | Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are 'black boxes' and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the 'black box'. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of 'it must be right!'. Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering. |
| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references and index. - Print version record |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (1 volume) illustrations |
| ISBN: | 9781315160030 131516003X 9781351661287 1351661280 |
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| illustrated | Illustrated |
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| language | English |
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| series2 | Working guides to estimating & forecasting |
| spelling | Jones, Alan 1953- VerfasserIn aut Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models Alan R. Jones Abingdon, Oxon New York, NY Routledge 2019 1 online resource (1 volume) illustrations Text txt rdacontent Computermedien c rdamedia Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier Working guides to estimating & forecasting volume 5 Includes bibliographical references and index. - Print version record Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are 'black boxes' and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the 'black box'. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of 'it must be right!'. Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering. Costs, Industrial Statistical methods Research, Industrial Statistical methods Risk Statistical methods Coût de production ; Méthodes statistiques Recherche industrielle ; Méthodes statistiques Risque ; Méthodes statistiques Costs, Industrial ; Statistical methods Research, Industrial ; Statistical methods Risk ; Statistical methods 9781138065055 Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe 9781138065055 |
| spellingShingle | Jones, Alan 1953- Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models Costs, Industrial Statistical methods Research, Industrial Statistical methods Risk Statistical methods Coût de production ; Méthodes statistiques Recherche industrielle ; Méthodes statistiques Risque ; Méthodes statistiques Costs, Industrial ; Statistical methods Research, Industrial ; Statistical methods Risk ; Statistical methods |
| title | Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models |
| title_auth | Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models |
| title_exact_search | Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models |
| title_full | Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models Alan R. Jones |
| title_fullStr | Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models Alan R. Jones |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models Alan R. Jones |
| title_short | Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models |
| title_sort | risk opportunity uncertainty and other random models |
| topic | Costs, Industrial Statistical methods Research, Industrial Statistical methods Risk Statistical methods Coût de production ; Méthodes statistiques Recherche industrielle ; Méthodes statistiques Risque ; Méthodes statistiques Costs, Industrial ; Statistical methods Research, Industrial ; Statistical methods Risk ; Statistical methods |
| topic_facet | Costs, Industrial Statistical methods Research, Industrial Statistical methods Risk Statistical methods Coût de production ; Méthodes statistiques Recherche industrielle ; Méthodes statistiques Risque ; Méthodes statistiques Costs, Industrial ; Statistical methods Research, Industrial ; Statistical methods Risk ; Statistical methods |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jonesalan riskopportunityuncertaintyandotherrandommodels |