Beyond Ukraine: debating the future of war
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2024
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| Abstract: | "War in the 21st century will remain a chameleon that takes on different forms and guises. This book offers the first comprehensive update and revision of ideas about the future of war since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It argues that the war has fundamentally shifted our perspective on the nature and character of future war, but also cautions against marginalising many other parallel trends, types of war, and ways of waging them. World-renowned international experts from the War Studies field consider the impact of the war in Ukraine on the broader social phenomenon of war: they analyse visions of future war; examine the impact of technological innovation on its conduct; assess our ability to anticipate its future; and consider lessons learned for leaders, soldiers, strategists, scholars and concerned citizens." |
| Umfang: | xiii, 449 Seiten Diagramme, Karten |
| ISBN: | 9781911723165 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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CONTENTS Acknowledgements xi List of Figures and Tables xiii Introduction Tim Sweijs and Jeffrey H. Michaels 1 PARTI BOUNDING THE IMPACT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE 1. Revisiting Putin’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine: Implications for Strategic and Security Studies Antulio Echevarria 23 2. The Futures of War: A Recent Western History Frans Osinga 41 3. After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Is the Decline of War a Delusion? Azar Gat 71 4. The Next War Would Be a Cyberwar, Right? Lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian War Paul Ducheine, Peter Pijpers and Kraesten Arnold 85 vii
PART II LANDSCAPES OF FUTURE WAR 5. Four Faces of War Frank Hoffman 107 6. People’s War vs Professional War: Which Has the Future in Europe? Jan Willem Honig 125 7. Urbicide and the Future of Civil War David Betz 147 8. Living with Denial? Great Power Competition Over Economic and Military Access Paul van Hooft 163 PART III MILITARY INNOVATION AND THE FUTURE OF WAR 9. Military-Technological Innovation in the Digital Age Audrey Cronin 183 10. The Rising Dominance of the Tactical Defense? T. X. Hammes 201 11. Artificial Intelligence and the Nature of War Kenneth Payne 223 12. Assembling the Future of Warfare: Innovating Swarm Technology within the Dutch Military—IndustrialCommercial Complex Lauren Gould, Linde Arentze and Marijn Hoijtink 241 PART IV ANTICIPATIN G THE FUTURE OFWAR 13. The Past as Guide to the Future Beatrice Heuser 265 14. Forecasting the Future of War Collin J. Meisel 287 viii
1S. The War in Ukraine and the Apocalyptic Imaginary Jeni Mitchell 305 16. War as Becoming Antoine Bousquet 329 Afterword Christopher Coker 349 Notes 355 Index 433 ix
INDEX Note: Page numbers followed by ‘n’ refer to notes, ‘t’ refer to tables, f’ refer to figures. 3D printers, 17,206-7,253 4Chan, 149, 152 9/11 attacks, 48-9, 331,338 А2/ AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) capabilities, 56, 62, 67, 164, 219-20 ‘adaptationbefore fire’, 197—9 ‘Afghan Model’, 49, 53—4 Afghanistan, 2, 38, 50, 52, 53, 131, 142, 143, 184, 283 AI. See artificial intelligence (AI) Air Alert app, 198 air defence systems, 58, 63, 66, 67 AirLand Battle doctrine, 166 ‘air-power revolution’, 43 Ajax Systems, 198 Alexander Nevsky (film), 274 Algerian National Liberation Front, 283 al-Qaeda, 49, 52, 338 See also 9/11 attacks Amazon Web Services, 196 Amazon, 98, 198 American Civil War, 201,203 American Psychological Association, 325 Angell, Norman, 277, 285 Animal Farm (Orwell), 354 animal war, 225, 226 Anonymous (hacker group), 92, 97 Another Bloody Century (Gray), 47 ‘anticipatory intelligence’, 271 anti-politics practices, 254—5 antithetical potentialities, 275—7 anti-war norms, 27, 29, 38 anti-war youth campaign, 81 apes, 226, 269-70 apocalyptic imaginary, 19, 305—27, 315t,427nl3 apocalyptic threats, defined, 308-10 biological, 316—17 Box X: the unknown/ unimaginable, 319—21 brief history, 310—14 categorizations, 310—11 defined,308—10 433
INDEX ‘enduring nature’ of, 306 environmental, 316 European tradition, 311—13 human-centred strain of, 313—14 perceptions on policy and strategy, 307, 314—21, 31 St, 321-6,427nl3 and Russo-Ukrainian War, 321-7 sacred, 310-11, 312, 313 secular, 311—13 societal, 317—18 space and planetary, 319 technological apocalyptic threats, 318—19 war and genocide, 317, 321, 323 APT SandWorm, 97, 102-3 ‘Arc of Instability’, 49, 59 armed conflict law, 26—7, 28—9 Aron, Raymond, 275, 276 Arquilla, John, 85 artificial intelligence (AI), 17, 58, 59, 62,64, 119, 122, 164, 187, 193, 194, 195, 223—39, 241—2, 330 apocalyptic imaginary, 307 character of war, changing, 230-2 cognitive domain operations, 115 drones manufacturing, 206—7 ‘friction’, reducing, 232—3 human minds, changing, 233—7, 235/ human nature and decision making, 224—5, 226 human nature of war and, 223-4 language models and decision making, 230, 237—9 434 semiconductors, 167, 173, 175 399-400n48 Socratic model, 236—7 assemblage, 247—8, 249, 251, 252 254,257-8 Aurora Orion, 206 Australia, 73, 270 authoritarian-capitalist regime, 81-2 authoritarianism, 54, 62 autocratic regimes, 25 Autonomous Weapon Systems (AWS), 58,59,62,64, 65, 167 AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control Systems), 187 Awad, Edmund, 229 Baghdad, 153, 168 Balkan crisis, 44 ballistic missiles, 170, 172, 209 ‘BananaWars’, 36 barbarism, sophisticated, 60 Bard, 224 bargaining-versus-brute force model, 33 Barkawi,Tarak, 241 battalion tactical groups (BTG), 63,67 Beevor, Antony, 101 Belgium, 72, 270—1 Berlin Airlift (1948-9), 270 Biden, Joe, 321 biological weapons, 188—90
biotechnology, 189—90, 195 Black Death, 316 Blue Helmets, 45 Book of Revelation, 305, 311 Bookchin, Murray, 152 Bosnia, 45—6 Boston Dynamics, 250 Bostrom, Nick, 319
INDEX ‘botnets’, 96 Boulding’s general theory of conflict, 291,301 Brexit, 277 Brighton, Shane, 241 Britain, 79,81,267, 271,277 Cold War-era civil defence, 161 ‘dehousing’ campaign, 219 food security, 156 information infrastructure, 158-9 intercommunal violence, 153 Brodie, Bernard, 344 BT G. See battalion tactical groups (BTG) Bush, GeorgeW, 283 C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance), 122 Cameron, David, 150 Canada, 72, 155 Capella Space, 204 capitalism, 42, 82, 144 Carter, Ashton, 187, 194 Catherine the Great, 274 Cebrowski, Arthur, 43 Central Intelligence Agency, 186 Chalmers, David, 234, 236, 237 Charles VIII, 281-2 Chechnya, 64, 277 Chiang, Ted, 237 China, 3, 61,71,72, 73, 82, 83, 144, 165, 170, 172, 175, 176, 220, 246, 270, 298, 302 A2/AD capabilities, 164 cognitive domain operations, 114—15 commercial espionage, 112 cross-domain synergy, 120 cyber activity, 57 investment in AI, 167, 188 ‘offset strategy’ against, 187—8 PMCs usage, 118 proxy wars, 117, 118 ‘system destruction warfare’, 121 Chips Act, 175 Churchill, Winston, 184, 266 civil wars, 15, 147—61 causes of, 149 chances for, 148 character, 147, 148 civil defence, 161 economic factor, 150—1 guardedness of, 149 information infrastructure attacks, 158—9 peace operations in, 44—6 as‘political war’, 160 primary objective, 157 strategy, 160—1 trust levels in society, 149—50 weapons availability, 151—2 Western states and, 147 See also urbicide civilian technological innovation, 195-7 Clash of Civilizations,The (Huntington), 48 Clausewitz, Carl von, 19, 33,
125, 126,142,191,223-5,226, 279,281,283-4,302,330,332 ‘apocalyptic imaginary’, 305, 339-42 future of war, 280 on ideal commander, 225 ‘mystery’ of war, 351 on people’s war, 127, 128—9 See also war’s nature and character 435
INDEX climate change, 18, 268—9, 313, 316 coercion, 14, 113 See also strategic coercion cognitive warfare, 14, 112—16 definition of, 113—14 Cohen, Eliot, 42, 43 ColdWar, 7, 29, 38, 42, 44, 48, 56, 127, 141, 149, 161, 163, 184, 188,244,278,279,282, 322,333 Collapse of Complex Societies, The (Tainter) ,317 ‘collateral damage’, 47 command and control (C2), 65 commemoration and mourning, 271-9 commercial espionage, 112 commercial satellites, 205 communism, 48, 79, 140, 144 compellence, 30, 32—3, 34 ‘comprehensive approach’, 50 conflict and mediation event observations (CAMEO), 290 Congress ofVienna, 133 conscription, 126, 134, 135—6, 137, 140, 143 Continental European countries, 267 conventional warfare, 14, 118—22, 141,297,331 ‘cross-domain synergy’, 119-20 ‘system destruction warfare’, 121-2 cool war, 61,63 counterinsurgency (COIN), 51, 53,60,280, 282 counterproliferation tools, 188—90 counter terrorism, 48—9 Covid-19, 316, 324 436 Crimea, annexation of (2014), 3, 37, 54, 56, 89, 142, 249, 277, 279 cruise missiles, 59, 63, 67, 209, 210, 220 Cuban missile crisis, 278—9 cultural anthropology, 228 cultural evolution, 227—9 cultural psychology, 228 ‘culture wars’, 147 ‘cunning intelligence’, 345 Curse ofAkkad, The (poem), 311 cyber espionage and sabotage, 170-1,214 cyber weapons, 88, 100—1,103 cyberattacks, 57—8, 60, 61,62, 63, 65, 86, 307, 317. See cyberwar CyberBerkut, 89 ‘cybernetics’, 232 Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), 110, 111 cyberspace, 52, 58, 85—6 offense dominance, 214—15 See also cyberattacks; cyberwar cyberwar, 85—104 anti-cyber options, 215
characteristics, 87—8 cyber operations, expectations and reality, 97—101 digital intelligence operations, 88 evolution of, 92—7 hard-cyber operations, 88, 89, 90, 97, 98, 99, 101 malicious software (malware), 88,90 pitfall, 86 soft-cyber operations, 88, 89, 90-1,97 term, 87
INDEX Da Jiang Innovations, 250 Damen Shipyards Group, 248 Darwinist nationalism, 277 DDoS. See Distributed-Denial-ofService (DDoS) attacks ‘decline of war’ thesis, 290 deep fakes, 59 Defence Innovation Agency, France, 9, 353 defense dominance. See offensedefense balance Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA), NATO, 242-3 Defense Innovation Competition (DIC),The Netherlands, 256 Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), United States, 194, 195 Deleuze, Gilles, 343, 344 Delft Dynamics, 257 democracies, 74, 140, 143 COIN campaigns and, 53 new technologies, exploitation of, 115-16 spread of, 25, 79—80 democratic constitutional reform, 133 ‘de-Nazification’, 322—3 denial. See economic and military denial depopulation policy, 33 Der große Konig (film), 274 deterrence, 12, 30-3, 123, 140 by denial, 30—1, 32 by punishment, 30 rediscovering, 56—9 Die Geschwister Oppermann (Feuchtwanger), 274 Die Hermannsschlacht (play) (von Kleist), 274 disinformation, 55, 61,89, 114 Distributed-Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks, 89,91,92, 93 diversity of war, 9—11 DNA, 189-90 DoD. See US Department of Defense (DoD) Donbas, 25,37, 66, 89,93, 142, 323 drones, 53—4, 60, 62, 64—5, 68, 185, 193, 196, 197, 198, 221, 224 commercial drone sector, 206 high-altitude drones, 213 ISIS, 186 MoD’s drones purchasing, 250 MQ-9 Reaper drones, 255 naval drones, 209 ‘Project PARIS’, 251,256, 257 proliferation of, 59 rise of, 205—6 SkyHive system, 256, 257, 259-60 SPEAR (Swarm-based Persistent Autonomous Reconnaissance), 245, 247, 257-8 See also swarm technology dual-use technologies, 59, 164, 169, 175
Dutch military—industrialcommercial complex, 244—62 assemblage, 247—8, 249, 251, 252,254 commonalities and critiques, 254 5 new alliances, forging, 250—4 re-assemblage, 257—8 shift in threat perceptions and technical solutions, 248—9 swarm technology, 246—8 437
INDEX tensions, contradictions and failures management, 258—60 valley of death, bridging the, 255-7 Dutch Ministry of Defense (MoD), 244-5, 248-9 anti-politics practices, 254—5 Defense Innovation Strategy (2018), 259 Defensity College program, 250-1,256 efforts to forge alignments, 255-7 employees, 252 ‘Frontdoor’ (website page), 252 MQ-9 Reaper drones acquisition, 255 off-the-shelf technologies, buying, 250 ‘Project PARIS’, 251,256, 257 Robots and Autonomous Systems (RAS) units, 247, 251,252-3,254,257 startups, collaboration with, 251-2, 255-7 See also Dutch militaryindustrial—commercial complex Dutch Royal Military Police, 250 dynamite, 185, 186 economic and military denial, 163-79 combining possibilities, 170—3 current trends, 164-5 globalization, 165—7 impact of, 173-9, 177—8t inequalities, deepening, 168—70 maritime costs, decline in, 165-6 working of, 168 438 economic crisis (2007—8), 82, 148 151,267, 268 economic integration, 26, 27—8 economic modernization, 74 economic openness, 78, 79 Edelman Trust Barometer, 149—50 Elbit Systems, 246 electronic warfare (EW), 216—17, 371n24 EMP systems, 62, 212, 216 EMS domain, 216—17 End of History and the Last Man, The (Fukuyama), 48 Ender’s Game (Card), 353 Enlightenment Now (Pinker), 349 enmity, 24, 39, 128, 129, 133, 140,339 ‘ environmentally-mediated intellectual decline’ theory, 316-17 ESET, 92, 94 Esper, MarkT, 214 Estonia cyberattack (2007), 57, 350 European army, 276 European Coal and Steel Community, 276 European colonialism, 312 European Space Agency, 319 European Union (EU), 25,45, 50, 61 Evera, Stephan van, 219
existential risk (‘X-risk’). See apocalyptic imaginary Expulsions: Brutality and Complexity in the Global Economy (Sassen), 261 ‘extra-judicial killing’, 53 Facebook, 93, 98, far-right‘extremism’, 160
INDEX Feuchtwanger, Lion, 274 Flame attack (2012), 57 flu pandemic, 316 forecasting, future war, 287—303 conventional war, probability of, 297 invasion of Ukraine and calculation changes, 299—303 prediction of war, possibilities, 289-91 See also war and patterns of (un) knowability four faces of warfare. See warfare, four faces of ‘fourth-generation warfare’, 48, 60 France, 76,79, 130, 134-6, 15 3, 269,276,277, 353 Franco-Prussian War, 135—6 free trade, 13,78,79,83 Freedman, Lawrence, 4, 30, 44 French Revolution, 125—6, 127, 129-30, 131, 132, 143, 145, 268,272,283 Fukuyama, Francis, 48, 62 ‘futurology’, 149 German Democratic Republic (GDR), 274 Germany, 75, 76, 79, 81, 135, 269 economy, 78 military leadership, 137—8 Nazi political leadership, 139—40 Project Cassandra, 353 global positioning system (GPS), 206,213 Global War on Terror (GWOT), 49, 147, 168, 331,350 globalization, 165—7, 331 Goebbels, Joseph, 139 40 Google, 112, 196, 198 GPT, 17,233,236 ChatGPT exchange, 223, 235^ GPT-4, 224 ‘gray zone’, 25, 29 Gray, Colin, 47, 339 Graziano, Michael, 234 Great Depression, 79 great powers, long peace between, 74-5, 75/, 77-9, 3 34 Greenfield, Susan, 353 Guattari, Félix, 343—4 Guicciardini, Francesco, 282 Gaddafi’s regime, 53 Gartzke, Erik, 289, 294 general purpose technologies, 188-90 genocide, 76, 95, 153, 311, 317, 321—4geopolitical rivalry, 61 George, Kennan, 25—6 Georgia, war against (2008), 278, 324 Gerasimov, Valery Vasilyevich, 265, 266 German armed forces, 136—7 Hädicke, Martijn, 254 Harari,Yuval, 349 Hedges, Chris, 48 Henry V (film), 274 Heraclitus, 342—3 HermeticWiper,
92, 94 Hezbollah, 51,52, 117 high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS), 65, 66 Hitler, Adolf, 267, 277, 278 Holland, 72 How to Lose the Information War (Jankowicz), 350 fascists, 272 Fedorov, Mykhailo, 92, 93, 241 439
INDEX Howard, Michael, 68 Hughes, Wayne, 210 ‘human machine team’, 237—9, 320 ‘human security’, 309 ‘humane warfare’, 47 humanitarian wars, 44—7, 59 Hungary, 268 Huntington, Samuel, 48 Hussein, Saddam, 49, 142 hybrid conflict, 51, 54—6, 60, 102, 336 hypersonic missiles, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64,67, 188 Hyten, John, 216 ICANN, 98 ICJ. See International Court of Justice (ICJ) ICT. See information and communications technology (ICT) ideology, 62 Iliad (Homer), 346, 351 immaculate war, 60, 64 improvised explosive device (IED), 160,186, 221,338 India, 298 Industrial Control Systems (ICS), 90 industrial growth, 77—9 Industrial Revolution II, 185, 186-7,204 Industrial Revolution III, 197 Industrial Revolution IV, 16 ‘Industroyer2’ ICS malware, 94 Inflation Reduction Act, 175 ‘influence operations’ doctrines, 52 information and communications technology (ICT), 43, 44, 51, 85,99,101,103 440 ‘information revolution’, 43 innovation. See militarytechnological innovation Innovative Technologies Shaping the 2040 Battlefield, 350-1 Instagram, 87, 196 'intelligentized warfare ’,121 International Atomic Energy Agency, 215 International Committee for the Red Cross, 54 International Court of Justice (ICJ), 323-3 International Criminal Court, 27 international law, 26—7, 28—9, 136-7 International Monetary Fund, 26, 61 International Organization for Migration, 38 Internet ofThings, 198 Internet Research Agency (aka Glavset), 102—3 internet, 51—2, 97 Iran, 117, 164, 168-9, 171, 184, 214 Stuxnet attack (2010), 215 UAV production, 169, 172 Iraq, 2,38,43,52, 142, 143, 184 civil war, 50 post-Saddam, 159
urban counterinsurgency operations, 153 Irish Republican Army, 283 irregular warfare, 51—2 IsaacWiper, 94 ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), 6, 51,52, 53, 60, 186 ISR capabilities, 174—5 Israel, 51, 52, 246 IT-Army of Ukraine, 93
INDEX James,William, 343, 353 Japan, 72,79, 140, 175 Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons (US), 174 Jullien, François, 341 Kagan, Robert, 47 Kaldor, Mary, 44 5,47, 59-60 Kaspersky Lab, 90 Kennedy, John E, 282 Kermode, Frank, 306 Kilcullen, David, 51,60, 157 ‘killer robots’, 58, 59, 62, 64, 65, 167 Kokoshin, Andrey, 279 Kolberg (film), 274 Korean War, 281, 282 Kosinski, Michal, 236 Kosovo, 46, 270 Kuhn,Thomas, 36 L’actionfrançaise (periodical), 138 Landwehr, 131 Lebanon War (2006), 51 Leicester, intercommunal violence (Sep 2022), 153 Levada Centre, 325 ‘liberal peace security culture’, 59-60 liberalism, 42, 54, 62,79,82 Limits of the City, The (Bookchin), 152 Lind, Bill, 48 Link Magazine, 252 Linkola, Pentti, 160—1 London, urban riots (2011), 156—7 Long Peace, 74-5, 75/, 77-9, 334 Louis XVI, 130 low-risk warfare, 53—4 Ludendorff, Erich, 139 Luhansk, 25 machine learning, 115, 187,231, 242, 244 Maersk, 111 Mahabharata, 351 Major Accident Hazard Pipelines (MAHP), 154-5 major war, decline of, 24—9, 40 anti-war norms, spread of, 27, 29, 38 democracies, spread of, 25 economic integration, increasing, 26, 27—8 international law and the law of armed conflict, 26—7, 28—9 mass destruction weapons, proliferation of, 25 multilateral institutions, growth of, 25-6 Mali, 69 malware, 88, 90, 94 Mandiant, 92 Mao 2 (DeLillo), 351 Marconi, Guglielmo, 185 Marcus, Gary, 234, 235, 236 Marine Corps (US), 205—6 Maritime Research Institute Netherlands (MARIN), 248 Mariupol, 66, 68 martial empiricism, 337, 342—5 mass destruction weapons, 12, 25, 298 McFate, Sean, 60 media, 36
Medvedev, Dmitry, 54, 297, 324 Melvin, Mungo, 280 Merkel, Angela, 150 Meta, 196 metis, 345 Meyer, Laurence, 293 441
INDEX Microsoft, 91,92,93-4, 98, 112, 196 middle powers, 164, 176, 177—8i migration, waves of, 268—9 ‘Military Innovation by Doing’ (MIND), 253 military—industrial—commercial complex. See Dutch militaryindustrial—commercial complex military-technological innovation, 16-18, 183-200, 333 ‘adaptation before fire’, 197—9 biological weapons, 188—9 civilian technological innovation, 195—7 counterproliferation tools, 188-90 destructive use of inventions, 186 late nineteenth century, 185 lethal open technologies, 186 pioneers, 183 as primarily military, 193—5 professional military education (PME), 190-3, 199 views, 10—11 See also artificial intelligence (AI) Milley, Mark, 207 Milosevic, Slobodan, 46 mobilization, 2, 8, 31,56, 131—2, 133-4,139-40,203, 330, 332, 344 ‘Modernization Peace’, 78 Mongol conquests, 76 Moskva (Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship), 96 MQ-9 Reaper drones, 255 Mueller, John, 44, 61 multiculturalism, 150 multidomain operations (MDO), 119-20 442 multilateral institutions, growth of, 25-6 museums, 272^-, 275 Musk, Elon, 92 N PRGRSS (magazine), 259 Nagorno-Karabakh War, 209, 246 Napoleon III, 134, 135 Napoleonic Wars, 269, 282, 305, 331-2 NASA,319 National Transmission System (UK), 154 nationalism, 79, 133-4, 281 NATO. See North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Nazis, 139—40 Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre, 319 Nelson, Horatio, 209 Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), 248 the Netherlands, 17, 175, 244, 245,247 ‘start-up ecosystems’, 253 See also Dutch militaryindustrial—commercial complex; Dutch Ministry of Defense (MoD)
‘network-centric warfare’, 43-4 ‘New Cold War’, 57 New START treaty, 321 ‘NewWorld Order’, 42 New Zealand, 73, 270 ‘new’ wars, 281-4 Nobel, Alfred, 185 non-state actors, 36, 38, 41,48, 51, 54, 164, 169 cyber-enabled influence operations, 94—5, 97—8
INDEX Cyberspace, 87—8 drones usage, 59 sophisticated barbarism, 60 United States and, 168 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 7, 25, 29-30, 34, 38, 45,46,50,63,99, 176, 268, 281, 288, 307, 320, 324, 326 annexation of Crimea responses, 56 conscription, 140 conventional defence, 140—1 defense dominance, 220—1 Innovation Fund, 261 Military Committee, 270 military spending, 242—3 multidomain operations (MDO), 119, 120 nuclear war, fear of, 321—2 Russian cyberattacks, 112 Warsaw Summit (2016), 57 North Korea, 72, 73, 117, 214 Northern Alliance, 49 NotPetya ransomware attack (2017), 86, 90, 100, 111, 214-15 nuclear peace, 74 nuclear war, 29, 307, 313, 317, 320,321-2,326-7 nuclear weapons, 13, 57, 59, 83, 140, 141, 184, 186, 187, 188, 193, 276, 281,284, 313, 321-2,326-7 decline of major war, 79—80 Nye, Joseph, 58 O’Brien, Philips, 171 offense—defense balance, 201—21, 221t, 303 air domain, 211—12 cyber domain, 2Id—15 dominance vs. temporary advantage, 201 EMS domain, 216—17 interaction between domains, 217-18 land domain, 208—9 sea domain, 209—10 shifting balance in history, 203-8 space domain, 213 strike warfare, 218—19 the West, 219-21, 221c On War (Clausewitz), 39, 129, 191, 302, 339, 340-1 OpenAI, 224, 233 GPT-4, 224 Operation Allied Force, 46 Operation Deliberate Force, 46 Operation Desert Storm, 42 Operation Enduring Freedom, 49, 53 Operation Iraqi Freedom, 49, 53 Operation Orchard, 86 Operation Unified Protector, 53 Oracle, 198 Orwell, George, 354 Ottoman Empire, 272 PalantirTechnologies, 243 Panetta, Leon E., 57, 214 Paradise Built in Hell (Solnit), 352 Parry,
Chris, 280 Payer, Friedrich von, 143 Peloponnesian War (431—04 BCE), 75,271-2 ‘the people’, 125—45 as a legitimate actor in war, 127-32 as a limited resource for technocratic war, 133—7 total war, 137 42 443
INDEX People’s Liberation Army (PLA), 114 ‘system destruction warfare’, 121 ‘three battles’, 115 people’s war. See ‘the people’ Prussia, 125—6 Ukraine, 126, 142, 143 pervasive surveillance, 204—5, 209 Pinker, Steven, 290, 349, 353-4 Planet Lab, 204 Planetary Defense Coordination Office (US), 319 PME. See professional military education (PME) Poland, 268, 277, 278 ‘political extremism’, 157 ‘political polarization’, 150 Poroshenko, Petro, 89 ports, mining of, 210 post-human condition, 352—3 post-Qaddafi Libya, 159 presentism, 18—19,42 private military companies (PMCs), 117-18 professional military education (PME), 190-3, 199 Project Cassandra, 9, 353 protectionism, 79, 82—3 proxy wars, 14, 53-4, 116—18, 123,320 Prussia, 75, 125-6, 129-130, 135, 280 Putin, Vladimir, 24, 27, 28—9, 64, 66,97, 143,277,285,291, 294, 321,324,325-6 NATO as a threat, 25 Russian economy, 26 ‘special military operation’ speech (24 Feb 2022), 323 444 See also Crimea, annexation of (2014); Russia; RussoUkrainian War; Ukraine, invasion of (2022) Putnam, Robert, 150 quantum computing, 62, 188 Quds Force, 117 RAND, 115 RAS. See Robots and Autonomous Systems (RAS) units revolution in military affairs (RMA), 44, 45, 46, 49, 62, 67 Richards, David, 57—8 RIPE, 98 Ritter, Gerhard, 135 robotics, 58, 119, 185, 188, 193, 194,206 Robots and Autonomous Systems (RAS)units, 247, 251,252-3, 254, 257 Rönfeldt, David, 85 Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre (NLR), 248 Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), 207, 211 Rumsfeld, Donald, 284 Rusk, Dean, 333 Russia authoritarian and nationalist character, 82 critical
infrastructure, cyberattacks on, 110—12 cyber disruption attacks, 214—15 cyber operations against Ukraine, 89—92 defense industry, 172—3 democracy, failure of, 268 Estonia cyberattack (2007), 57, 350
INDEX GDP per capita, 290 geopolitics, 61 Georgia, war against (2008), 278,324 influence campaigns, 114 international trade, 83 New START treaty withdrawal, 321 nuclear missiles, 57 offense as dominant, 204 proxy wars, 117 reliance on PMCs, 117 semiconductors, inflow of, 173 strike warfare, 219 See also Crimea, annexation of (2014); Russo-Ukrainian War; Ukraine, invasion of (2022) Russian economy, 26 sanctions and embargoes, 28, 30,34-5, 279 Russian Military Intelligence (GRU), 90, 91,93 Russian military air power, 66—7 ‘Anti-Access/Area Denial’ (А2/ AD) capabilities, 56 cross-domain integration, 120 loss of tanks, armoured vehicles and soldiers, 66 professionalism and discipline, 56 Russophobia, 95 Russo-Ukrainian War, 20, 62—9, 71, 123, 142, 265-6, 277, 278, 334 AI usage, 232-3, 241-2 air superiority, 211—12 apocalyptic imaginary, 321—7 assumptions, 1—2 cyber operations, expectations and reality, 97—101 defensive positions gaps, 202 denial and countering denial, 170,173 denial capabilities, 164, 165, 172 drone tech in, 186, 207, 211-12 failures, 65, 66—7, 68, 96 ‘the Ghost of Kyiv’, 96 impact of, 12—14 pervasive surveillance, 209 social media and, 95—6 tech platforms and, 196, 243 troops withdrawal, 66 UAVs, 169 weaponization, 338 See also cyberwar Sapolsky, Robert, 269—70 Sassen, Saskia, 261 satellites, 17, 62, 92, 184, 193, 204,208,233 active satellites, 205 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), 194, 204, 205,206 war in space, 213 See also Starlink Savunma Teknolojileri Mühendislik (STM), 246 Schelling,Thomas, 26, 30, 33, 37, 322 science fiction, 8—9, 306, 353 Scientific
American (journal), 185 Second Punic War, 75 Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), 90, 96 semiconductors, 167, 173, 175, 399—400n48 Sense of an Ending,The (Kermode), 306 Sergeytsev, Timofey, 322—3 445
INDEX Shaw, Martin, 47 SkyHive system, 256, 257, 259-60 small powers, 164, 169, 174, 177—8 t Smith, Adam, 83 Smith, Rupert, 24, 44 ‘war amongst the people’ paradigm, 24, 35—9 social media, 52, 55, 60, 61,95, 97 exploitation of, 114, 115 Zelensky’s use of, 64, 95 societal warfare, 14, 109—12 ‘soft power’, 44 SolarWinds hack (2020), 111,215 Solnit, Rebecca, 352 South China Sea, 3, 71,83, 220 South Korea, 72—3, 175 Soviet Union (USSR) collapse of, 126, 166, 283 covert biological weapons program, 189 NATO vs., 7, 140—1 recreating, 268 World War II casualty rate, 76 space surveillance, 205 SpaceX, 196 Starlink, 64, 92, 98, 196 Spain, 76, 153 SPEAR (Swarm-based Persistent Autonomous Reconnaissance), 245, 247, 257-8 Spetsnaz units, 56 Spot (dog-like robot), 250 Srebrenica massacre (Jul 1995), 46, 274 Stalin, Joseph, 278 Stand Out of Our Light (Williams), 353 Starlink, 64, 92,98, 196 446 Starship Troopers (Heinlein), 353 startups fear of, 254 Dutch MoD’s collaboration with, 251-2,255-7 valley of death, 255—7 State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection, Ukraine, 94 state-building, 50 strategic bombing, 110, 202 strategic coercion, 24, 30—5, 40 definition, 30 irrational actor versus the ignorant actor, 31—2 Stuxnet attack (2010), 57, 86, 215 submarine technology, 170 Sudan civil war, 69 Sun Tzu, 114—15 surface-to-air missile (SAM), 63, 65,66 Surkov, Vladislav, 114 ‘surrogate warfare’, 53, 60—1,123 surveillance pervasive surveillance, 204—5, 209 sea domain, 209 space surveillance, 205 V-BAT 128 surveillance drone, 206 Svechin, Aleksandr Andreyevich, 266, 279
swarm technology, 246—8 SPEAR (Swarm-based Persistent Autonomous Reconnaissance), 245, 247, 257-8 Tective Robotics, 256—7 See also drones Sweden, 269
INDEX Symantec, 94 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), 194, 204, 205, 206 ‘system destruction warfare’, 121-2 tactical defense. See offensedefense balance Tainter, Joseph, 317 Taiwan, 71,73, 278, 302 Taliban, 49, SO, 51,52, 142-3 technological apocalyptic threats, 318-19 technological innovation. See military-technological innovation Tective Robotics, 256—7, 259—60 Telegram, 93, 95 The Future of liar: A History (Freedman), 4 ‘theory of mind’, 226, 231,236 Thirty Years War (1618-48), 76 This England (film), 274 Threat Analysis Group (TAG), Google, 112 ‘Thucydides trap’, 80—1 TikTok, 115 total war, 137-4-2 Tournear, Derek, 218 Transformation ofWar, The (van Creveld), 60 Trojan. Killdisk, 94 troll armies, 55,61 Turkey, 246, 269 Ukraine cyber infrastructure, 98 denial, 179 drones, 197, 198, 205 Kyiv, 28, 31,63-4, 112, 198, 322 power grid attack, 86, 90, 94, 97 presidential election (May 2014), 89 Russian cyber operations against, 89—97, 110—12 Russian cyberattacks, countering, 91,92—3, 96 Russian troops withdrawal, 66 strategies of control, 33-4 tech capacity, 197—8 ‘total defense’ policy, 30—1 use of EMS, 216 West’s support to, 221 Ukraine, invasion of (2022), 1,3, 11,23-40,63, 163,280,285, 303 cyberspace activities, 85, 86, 87 material capabilities, 302 plight of refugees, 38 Putin’s justifications, 40 sanctions and embargoes, 28, 30, 34-5, 279 strategic coercion, 24, 30—5, 40 US intelligence community’s predictions, 288, 289 ‘war amongst the people’ paradigm, 24, 35—9 Western materiel support for, 34, 35 See also major war, decline of; Russo-Ukrainian War; war’s nature and
character Ukrainian Armed Forces, 2, 35, 97, 169, 262 Ukrainian hackers, 198 UN Safe Areas, 45 (un)knowability characteristics. See war and patterns of (un) knowability unconventional terrorism, 81 447
INDEX Union of Concerned Scientists, 205 United Kingdom (UK) ‘dehousing’ campaign, 219 gas networks, 154—5 London, urban riots, 156—7 United Nations (UN), 25, 45, 50, 61,298 United States (US), 23, 61,71,72, 79, 168, 246, 266, 271, 282 9/11 attacks, 48-9, 331, 338 A2/AD system, 219, 220 American Civil War, 201,203 armed forces, 2—3 civil war and, 147 ‘command of the commons’, 164 debt—GDP ratio, 150—1 Global War on Terror (GWOT), 49, 147, 168, 331, 350 globalization, benefits, 166—7 hegemony, 71,74, 81 military power, 42—4 monitoring PLA, 115 National Defense Strategy (2018), United States, 118, 192,307 offense/defense competition, 201-2 ‘Offset X’, 187-8 PME system, 192-3, 199 power projection, 168—9, 170, 174,175,176 presidential election (2016) and cyberattack, 86 proxy wars, 117 Roosevelt’s ‘New Deal’, 268 structural inequalities, use of, 165 war participation, 36—7 (un)knowability. See war and patterns of (un)knowability 448 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), 166, 167, 169, 173, 246 unmanned aircraft system (UAS), 216 Unrestricted Warfare (1999 book), 56 urbicide, 152—61 aims, 152 definition, 152 gas networks as target, 154-5 outflows of people, 156—7 security services, 157 tactics amongst anti-status quo, 154 transportation and logistics infrastructure as target, 156 See also civil wars US Cyber Command Vision, 214 US Department of Defense (DoD), 11-12, 157, 187, 194-5, 199, 338 US Energy Information Administration, 298 US National Intelligence Council, 299 US Navy, 43, 168, 184, 205-6 van Creveld, Martin, 47, 48, 60, 283, 291 Vann, John Paul, 160 V-BAT 128 surveillance
drone, 206 Vertical take-off and landing (VTOL), 206 Viasat, 92, 196, 215 Vietnam, 3, 117,282,283 VKontakte, 90, 95, 197 Vodafone, 93, 98 von Kleist, Heinrich, 274 Wagner Group, 61,64, 69, 117 Wall Street Crash (1929), 267, 268 Walters, Barbara F., 150
INDEX Walzer, Michael, 349 ‘war amongst the people’ paradigm, 24, 35—9 war and patterns of (un) knowability, 287, 288, 292—6, 295—96t, 303 complexity, 292 equilibration, 293 measurability, 292—3 stochasticity, 294 tractability, 294, 295 war as becoming, 329 47 against an essence of war, 334—8 becoming Clausewitz, 339 42 martial empiricism, 342—5 (no-)futures of war, 345—7 perpetual transformation of war, 331-4 See also war’s nature and character War in the Air, The (Wells), 312 War is a Force That Gives Us Meaning (Hedges), 48 war memorials, 272—4, 275 War of theWorlds, The (Wells), 313 war’s nature and character, 19—20, 24, 33, 39-40 cultural evolution, 227—9 human nature and decision making, 224—5, 226 human nature of war, 223—4 implications of, 229 language capability, 227 metaphysical dimension of war, 351-2 See also artificial intelligence (AI); war and patterns of (un)knowability; war as becoming warfare, four faces of, 107—24, 109f framework, 108—9, 109/" risk assessment, 122—3 Warsaw Pact, 29, 166, 282 ‘Washington Consensus’, 50 Web 2.0, 51-2 Weimar Germany, 267 Wells, H.G., 149,312 WhatsApp, 87 Williams, Christopher, 316—17 'wiperware'-attack, 91,92, 94, 112 Work, Robert O., 187, 188 World Bank, 61 World Set Free, The (Wells), 312 World War I, 2, 36, 37, 75, 79, 137, 143 -4, 186, 201,208, 269, 272-3, 277, 281,282, 284, 332 World War II, 27, 36, 37, 56, 75, 76, 139-40, 172, 184, 186, 187, 201,219, 269, 270, 274, 281,282,332-3 World War III, 282, 313, 325 Wright, Orville, 185 Wright, Wilbur, 185 X (formerly known as Twitter), 93, 98,196,234 Yandex, 197 Yarosh,
Dmytro, 89 Yudin, Grigory, 326 Yugoslav civil war, 45, 153 Zelensky, Volodymyr, 27, 64, 97, 143 appeal to the US Congress, 302 ‘total defense’ policy, 30—1 See also Russo-Ukrainian War; Ukraine; Ukraine, invasion of (2022) Zmiinyi Island (‘Snake Island’), 96 ‘zone of peace'/'zone of war’, 72, 83 Bayerische QtoTtsbiblfothek Hönch«n 449 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author2 | Sweijs, Tim 1981- Michaels, Jeffrey H. |
| author2_role | edt edt |
| author2_variant | t s ts j h m jh jhm |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1144192153 (DE-588)1020247029 |
| author_facet | Sweijs, Tim 1981- Michaels, Jeffrey H. |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV049666059 |
| classification_rvk | MK 3100 MG 82940 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1437837981 (DE-599)KXP1881570797 |
| discipline | Politologie |
| era | Prognose gnd |
| era_facet | Prognose |
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| id | DE-604.BV049666059 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-01-11T12:21:36Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781911723165 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-035009171 |
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| physical | xiii, 449 Seiten Diagramme, Karten |
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| publishDate | 2024 |
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| publisher | Hurst & Company |
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| spelling | Beyond Ukraine debating the future of war Tim Sweijs and Jeffrey H. Michaels (editors) London Hurst & Company 2024 xiii, 449 Seiten Diagramme, Karten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier "War in the 21st century will remain a chameleon that takes on different forms and guises. This book offers the first comprehensive update and revision of ideas about the future of war since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It argues that the war has fundamentally shifted our perspective on the nature and character of future war, but also cautions against marginalising many other parallel trends, types of war, and ways of waging them. World-renowned international experts from the War Studies field consider the impact of the war in Ukraine on the broader social phenomenon of war: they analyse visions of future war; examine the impact of technological innovation on its conduct; assess our ability to anticipate its future; and consider lessons learned for leaders, soldiers, strategists, scholars and concerned citizens." Prognose gnd rswk-swf Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd rswk-swf Kriegführung (DE-588)4073817-6 gnd rswk-swf Krieg (DE-588)4033114-3 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift 2022 Amsterdam gnd-content Krieg (DE-588)4033114-3 s Kriegführung (DE-588)4073817-6 s Prognose z DE-604 Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X s Sweijs, Tim 1981- (DE-588)1144192153 edt Michaels, Jeffrey H. (DE-588)1020247029 edt Äquivalent Druck-Ausgabe, Hardback 978-0-19-779024-3 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-1-80-526215-2 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035009171&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035009171&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register |
| spellingShingle | Beyond Ukraine debating the future of war Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd Kriegführung (DE-588)4073817-6 gnd Krieg (DE-588)4033114-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)106969780X (DE-588)4073817-6 (DE-588)4033114-3 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Beyond Ukraine debating the future of war |
| title_auth | Beyond Ukraine debating the future of war |
| title_exact_search | Beyond Ukraine debating the future of war |
| title_full | Beyond Ukraine debating the future of war Tim Sweijs and Jeffrey H. Michaels (editors) |
| title_fullStr | Beyond Ukraine debating the future of war Tim Sweijs and Jeffrey H. Michaels (editors) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Beyond Ukraine debating the future of war Tim Sweijs and Jeffrey H. Michaels (editors) |
| title_short | Beyond Ukraine |
| title_sort | beyond ukraine debating the future of war |
| title_sub | debating the future of war |
| topic | Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg (DE-588)106969780X gnd Kriegführung (DE-588)4073817-6 gnd Krieg (DE-588)4033114-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg Kriegführung Krieg Konferenzschrift 2022 Amsterdam |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035009171&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=035009171&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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