Short-Term Forecasting: Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead
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520 | 3 | |a This paper presents a ""bridge model"" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the ""bridge"" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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author | Iacoviello, Matteo |
author_facet | Iacoviello, Matteo |
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id | DE-604.BV048350530 |
illustrated | Not Illustrated |
indexdate | 2024-12-20T19:42:20Z |
institution | BVB |
isbn | 1451853211 9781451853216 |
language | English |
oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033729798 |
oclc_num | 1337138336 |
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physical | 1 Online-Ressource (23 p) |
psigel | ZDB-1-IMF |
publishDate | 2001 |
publishDateSearch | 2001 |
publishDateSort | 2001 |
publisher | International Monetary Fund |
record_format | marc |
series2 | IMF Working Papers |
spellingShingle | Iacoviello, Matteo Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead |
title | Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead |
title_auth | Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead |
title_exact_search | Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead |
title_full | Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead Iacoviello, Matteo |
title_fullStr | Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead Iacoviello, Matteo |
title_full_unstemmed | Short-Term Forecasting Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead Iacoviello, Matteo |
title_short | Short-Term Forecasting |
title_sort | short term forecasting projecting italian gdpone quarter to two years ahead |
title_sub | Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead |
url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/06208-9781451853216/06208-9781451853216/06208-9781451853216.xml |
work_keys_str_mv | AT iacoviellomatteo shorttermforecastingprojectingitaliangdponequartertotwoyearsahead |