Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons From the Republic of Congo
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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Carcillo, Stéphane (Author)
Format: Electronic eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2007
Series:IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 07/80
Links:http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/01113-9781451866445/01113-9781451866445/01113-9781451866445.xml
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Abstract:In a number of oil producing countries, oil revenue accounts for the majority of government revenue, but is expected to be depleted in a relatively short time frame. Ensuring that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path is thus a high priority, but political and social adjustment costs create incentives to delay fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates how the permanently sustainable non-oil primary deficit (PSNOPD) depends on the speed of consolidation, using an optimization model with habit formation. Realism is added by allowing for negative growth-adjusted interest rates during a temporary period of catch-up growth. Applied to the Republic of Congo, this approach leads to the following conclusions: (i) the current fiscalpolicy stance is unsustainable; (ii) social adjustment costs justify spreading the bulk of the adjustment over five years; and (iii) the slower the adjustment, the lower the PSNOPD level
Physical Description:1 Online-Ressource (28 p)
ISBN:1451866445
9781451866445