Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand?:
Global trade growth over the past few years has appeared extraordinarily weak, even in relation to weak global GDP growth. This paper shows that the apparent breakdown in the relationship between global trade and global GDP growth is largely explained by two factors: an inappropriate measurement of...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2015
|
| Series: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
|
| Subjects: | |
| Links: | https://doi.org/10.1787/5js1qvnff3hk-en |
| Summary: | Global trade growth over the past few years has appeared extraordinarily weak, even in relation to weak global GDP growth. This paper shows that the apparent breakdown in the relationship between global trade and global GDP growth is largely explained by two factors: an inappropriate measurement of global GDP and extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area. As a measure of demand for traded goods, global GDP at market exchange rates is more appropriate than the conventional purchasing power parity-based measure. Moreover, extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area - which is a particularly trade intensive region - has had a substantial negative effect on intra-euro area trade flows, which are commonly counted towards global trade. When global GDP is measured at market exchange rates and intra-euro area flows are removed from the measure of global trade, econometric estimations suggest that over the past 15 years the long-term elasticity of global trade to GDP has been similar to that of the 1990s. Indeed, the overwhelming part of post-crisis trade weakness can be attributed to weak global demand rather than structural changes, according to the econometric estimations in this paper and supporting evidence on changes in global investment, international production fragmentation and protectionism |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/5js1qvnff3hk-en |
Staff View
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000zc 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV047934126 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 007 | cr|uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 220413s2015 xx o|||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1787/5js1qvnff3hk-en |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (ZDB-13-SOC)061284661 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1312686310 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV047934126 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e aacr | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-384 |a DE-91 |a DE-473 |a DE-824 |a DE-29 |a DE-739 |a DE-355 |a DE-20 |a DE-1028 |a DE-1049 |a DE-188 |a DE-521 |a DE-861 |a DE-898 |a DE-92 |a DE-573 |a DE-19 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Ollivaud, Patrice |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? |c Patrice Ollivaud and Cyrille Schwellnus = La faiblesse du commerce mondiale après la crise reflète-t-elle seulement une faible demande? / Patrice Ollivaud et Cyrille Schwellnus |
| 246 | 1 | 3 | |a La faiblesse du commerce mondiale après la crise reflète-t-elle seulement une faible demande? |
| 264 | 1 | |a Paris |b OECD Publishing |c 2015 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten) |c 21 x 29.7cm | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a OECD Economics Department Working Papers | |
| 520 | |a Global trade growth over the past few years has appeared extraordinarily weak, even in relation to weak global GDP growth. This paper shows that the apparent breakdown in the relationship between global trade and global GDP growth is largely explained by two factors: an inappropriate measurement of global GDP and extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area. As a measure of demand for traded goods, global GDP at market exchange rates is more appropriate than the conventional purchasing power parity-based measure. Moreover, extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area - which is a particularly trade intensive region - has had a substantial negative effect on intra-euro area trade flows, which are commonly counted towards global trade. When global GDP is measured at market exchange rates and intra-euro area flows are removed from the measure of global trade, econometric estimations suggest that over the past 15 years the long-term elasticity of global trade to GDP has been similar to that of the 1990s. Indeed, the overwhelming part of post-crisis trade weakness can be attributed to weak global demand rather than structural changes, according to the econometric estimations in this paper and supporting evidence on changes in global investment, international production fragmentation and protectionism | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Economics | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Schwellnus, Cyrille |4 ctb | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5js1qvnff3hk-en |x Verlag |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033315620 | |
Record in the Search Index
| DE-BY-OTHR_katkey | 6533484 |
|---|---|
| DE-BY-TUM_katkey | 2630486 |
| _version_ | 1831257606235095042 |
| adam_text | |
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Ollivaud, Patrice |
| author2 | Schwellnus, Cyrille |
| author2_role | ctb |
| author2_variant | c s cs |
| author_facet | Ollivaud, Patrice Schwellnus, Cyrille |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Ollivaud, Patrice |
| author_variant | p o po |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV047934126 |
| collection | ZDB-13-SOC |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-13-SOC)061284661 (OCoLC)1312686310 (DE-599)BVBBV047934126 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1787/5js1qvnff3hk-en |
| format | Electronic eBook |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>00000nam a2200000zc 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV047934126</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr|uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">220413s2015 xx o|||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1787/5js1qvnff3hk-en</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(ZDB-13-SOC)061284661</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1312686310</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV047934126</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">aacr</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-384</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-824</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1028</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1049</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-188</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-521</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-861</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-898</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-92</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-573</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Ollivaud, Patrice</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand?</subfield><subfield code="c">Patrice Ollivaud and Cyrille Schwellnus = La faiblesse du commerce mondiale après la crise reflète-t-elle seulement une faible demande? / Patrice Ollivaud et Cyrille Schwellnus</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="246" ind1="1" ind2="3"><subfield code="a">La faiblesse du commerce mondiale après la crise reflète-t-elle seulement une faible demande?</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Paris</subfield><subfield code="b">OECD Publishing</subfield><subfield code="c">2015</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten)</subfield><subfield code="c">21 x 29.7cm</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">OECD Economics Department Working Papers</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Global trade growth over the past few years has appeared extraordinarily weak, even in relation to weak global GDP growth. This paper shows that the apparent breakdown in the relationship between global trade and global GDP growth is largely explained by two factors: an inappropriate measurement of global GDP and extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area. As a measure of demand for traded goods, global GDP at market exchange rates is more appropriate than the conventional purchasing power parity-based measure. Moreover, extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area - which is a particularly trade intensive region - has had a substantial negative effect on intra-euro area trade flows, which are commonly counted towards global trade. When global GDP is measured at market exchange rates and intra-euro area flows are removed from the measure of global trade, econometric estimations suggest that over the past 15 years the long-term elasticity of global trade to GDP has been similar to that of the 1990s. Indeed, the overwhelming part of post-crisis trade weakness can be attributed to weak global demand rather than structural changes, according to the econometric estimations in this paper and supporting evidence on changes in global investment, international production fragmentation and protectionism</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Schwellnus, Cyrille</subfield><subfield code="4">ctb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5js1qvnff3hk-en</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="z">kostenfrei</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="943" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033315620</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV047934126 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-01-11T15:45:42Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033315620 |
| oclc_num | 1312686310 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
| owner | DE-384 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-188 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-92 DE-573 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| owner_facet | DE-384 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-188 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-92 DE-573 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| psigel | ZDB-13-SOC |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateSearch | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | OECD Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | OECD Economics Department Working Papers |
| spellingShingle | Ollivaud, Patrice Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? Economics |
| title | Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? |
| title_alt | La faiblesse du commerce mondiale après la crise reflète-t-elle seulement une faible demande? |
| title_auth | Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? |
| title_exact_search | Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? |
| title_full | Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? Patrice Ollivaud and Cyrille Schwellnus = La faiblesse du commerce mondiale après la crise reflète-t-elle seulement une faible demande? / Patrice Ollivaud et Cyrille Schwellnus |
| title_fullStr | Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? Patrice Ollivaud and Cyrille Schwellnus = La faiblesse du commerce mondiale après la crise reflète-t-elle seulement une faible demande? / Patrice Ollivaud et Cyrille Schwellnus |
| title_full_unstemmed | Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? Patrice Ollivaud and Cyrille Schwellnus = La faiblesse du commerce mondiale après la crise reflète-t-elle seulement une faible demande? / Patrice Ollivaud et Cyrille Schwellnus |
| title_short | Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand? |
| title_sort | does the post crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/5js1qvnff3hk-en |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ollivaudpatrice doesthepostcrisisweaknessofglobaltradesolelyreflectweakdemand AT schwellnuscyrille doesthepostcrisisweaknessofglobaltradesolelyreflectweakdemand AT ollivaudpatrice lafaiblesseducommercemondialeapreslacriserefletetelleseulementunefaibledemande AT schwellnuscyrille lafaiblesseducommercemondialeapreslacriserefletetelleseulementunefaibledemande |