Bayesian philosophy of science: variations on a theme by the Reverend Thomas Bayes
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| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Oxford
Oxford University Press
[2019]
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| Edition: | First edition |
| Subjects: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031585043&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Physical Description: | xxix, 383 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme 24 cm |
| ISBN: | 0199672113 9780199672110 |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents First Author s Preface vii Second Author s Preface xiii List of Figures xxi List of Tables xxiii Book Overview xxv Theme: Bayesian Philosophy of Science Probability and Degrees of Belief.................................... Conditional Degrees of Belief and Bayes Theorem ... Conditionalization and Varieties of Bayesian Inference Causal Bayesian Networks............................................... Variations on a Bayesian Theme....................................... і 4 17 21 31 35 Variation 1: Confirmation and Induction 1.1 Motivating Bayesian Confirmation Theory.................. 1.2 Confirmation as Firmness............................................... 1.3 Confirmation as Increase in Firmness and the Paradoxes of Confirmation................................................................. 1.4 The Plurality of Bayesian Confirmation Measures ... 1.5 Discussion.......................................................................... Appendix: Proofs of the Theorems................................. 41 42 43 Variation 2: The No Alternatives Argument 2.1 Modeling the No Alternatives Argument..................... 2.2 Results................................................................................ 67 68 74 xvu 50 55 61 63
xviii 2.3 Contents Discussion........................................................................... Appendix: Proofs of the Theorems................................. 75 78 Variation 3: Scientific Realism and the No Miracles Argument 81 3.1 The Bayesian No Miracles Argument.............................. 82 3.2 Extending the No Miracles Argument to Stable Scien tific Theories........................................................................ 88 3.3 The Frequency-Based No Miracles Argument............... 95 3.4 Discussion........................................................................... 99 Appendix: Proofs of the Theorems................................. 102 Variation 4: Learning Conditional Evidence 107 4.1 Divergence Minimization and Bayesian Conditionalizationno 4.2 Three Challenges for Minimizing Divergence............... 113 4.3 Meeting the Challenges .............................................. . 115 4.4 Learning Relative Frequencies: The Case of Judy Benjamini2i 4.5 Discussion.......................................................................... 123 Appendix: Proofs of the Theorems................................. 126 Variation 5: The Problem of Old Evidence 5.1 The Dynamic Problem of Old Evidence: The GarberJeffrey-Niiniluoto Approach............................................. 5.2 The Dynamic Problem of Old Evidence: Alternative Explanations....................................................................... 5.3 The Static Problem of Old Evidence: A Counterfactual
Perspective.......................................................................... 5.4 The Hybrid Problem of Old Evidence: Learning Explan atory Relationships........................................................... 5.5 Discussion.......................................................................... Appendix: Proofs of the Theorems................................ 131 133 138 140 143 147 150 Variation 6: Causal Strength 155 6.1 Interventions and Causal Bayesian Networks............... 156 6.2 Probabilistic Measures of Causal Strength..................... 161 6.3 Causal Contribution and Actual Causal Strength .... 171 6.4 Conclusion......................................................................... 176 Appendix: Proofs of the Theorems................................ 178
Contents XIX Variation 7: Explanatory Power 7.1 Causal Theories of Explanatory Power.......................... 7.2 Statistical Relevance and Explanatory Power............... 7.3 Representation Theorems for Measures of Explanatory Power.................................................................................. 7.4 Comparison of the Measures......................................... 7.5 Discussion......................................................................... Appendix: Proofs of the Theorems................................ 185 187 190 192 199 201 204 Variation 8: Intertheoretic Reduction 8.1 The Generalized Nagel-Schaffner Model..................... 8.2 Reduction and Confirmation ......................................... 8.3 Why Accept a Purported Reduction?............................. 8.4 Discussion......................................................................... Appendix: Proofs of the Theorems................................ 207 208 211 217 219 222 Variation 9: Hypothesis Tests and Corroboration 9.1 Confirmation versus Corroboration ............................. 9.2 Popper on Degree of Corroboration............................. 9.3 The Impossibility Results............................................... 9.4 A New Explication of Corroboration............................. 9.5 Discussion.......................................................................... Appendix: Proofs of the Theorems................................ 227 232 235 238 245 251 254 Variation 10: Simplicity and Model Selection xo.i Simplicity in Model
Selection........................................ X0.2 The Akaiké Information Criterion............................... 10.3 The Bayesian Information Criterion ............................. 10.4 The Minimum Message Length Principle..................... 10.5 The Deviance Information Criterion.............................. 10.6 Discussion.......................................................................... Appendix: Sketch of the Derivation of the Akaiké Infor mation Criterion................................................................. 261 263 267 270 273 277 280 Variation 11: Scientific Objectivity 11.1 The Objections.................................................................... 11.2 Convergence Theorems and Bayes Factors .................. 11.3 Frequentism and Scientific Objectivity........................... 287 289 291 293 284
Contents XX Beyond Concordant, Value-Free and Procedural Objec tivity ................................................................................ 298 11.5 Interactive and Convergent Objectivity......................... 300 11.6 Discussion........................................................................307 її.4 Variation 12: Models, Idealizations and Objective Chance 311 12.1 The Equality and Chance-Credence Coordination. . . 313 12.2 The Suppositional Analysis.............................................316 12.3 Suppositional Prior Probabilities and the Trilemma Res olution ............................................................................. 319 12.4 Bayes Theorem Revisited............................................... 322 12.5 Conclusion........................................................................324 Conclusion: The Theme Revisited 327 Bibliography 339 Index 377
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| bvnumber | BV046206046 |
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| id | DE-604.BV046206046 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T18:46:01Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0199672113 9780199672110 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-031585043 |
| oclc_num | 1126674438 |
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| owner | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-29 DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-29 DE-12 |
| physical | xxix, 383 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme 24 cm |
| psigel | BSB_NED_20200817 |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateSearch | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | Oxford University Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spellingShingle | Sprenger, Jan 1982- Hartmann, Stephan 1968- Bayesian philosophy of science variations on a theme by the Reverend Thomas Bayes Bayes, Thomas 1702-1761 (DE-588)118657674 gnd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd Wissenschaftsphilosophie (DE-588)4202787-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)118657674 (DE-588)4144220-9 (DE-588)4202787-1 |
| title | Bayesian philosophy of science variations on a theme by the Reverend Thomas Bayes |
| title_auth | Bayesian philosophy of science variations on a theme by the Reverend Thomas Bayes |
| title_exact_search | Bayesian philosophy of science variations on a theme by the Reverend Thomas Bayes |
| title_full | Bayesian philosophy of science variations on a theme by the Reverend Thomas Bayes Jan Sprenger, Stephen Hartmann |
| title_fullStr | Bayesian philosophy of science variations on a theme by the Reverend Thomas Bayes Jan Sprenger, Stephen Hartmann |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bayesian philosophy of science variations on a theme by the Reverend Thomas Bayes Jan Sprenger, Stephen Hartmann |
| title_short | Bayesian philosophy of science |
| title_sort | bayesian philosophy of science variations on a theme by the reverend thomas bayes |
| title_sub | variations on a theme by the Reverend Thomas Bayes |
| topic | Bayes, Thomas 1702-1761 (DE-588)118657674 gnd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd Wissenschaftsphilosophie (DE-588)4202787-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bayes, Thomas 1702-1761 Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie Wissenschaftsphilosophie |
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