Availability: Economic growth and business cycle forecasting at the regional level

Economic growth and business cycle forecasting at the regional level:

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Lehmann, Robert 1986- (Author)
Format:	Thesis/Dissertation Book
Language:	English
Published:	München ifoInstitut [2016]
Series:	ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 65
Subjects:	Wirtschaftsstruktur Wirtschaftswachstum Regionalforschung Exporte Konjunkturprognosen Hochschulschrift
Links:	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028822694&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
Physical Description:	XII, 146 Seiten Diagramme
ISBN:	9783959420075 3959420072

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MARC


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Record in the Search Index

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adam_text	T ABLE O F C O N TEN TS LIST OF FIGURES V LIST OF TABLES VII LST OF ABBREVIATIONS X 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 SUMMARY AND THEMATIC C OHERENCE .............................................................. 2 1.2 OWN CONTRIBUTION TO JOINT RESEACH PROJECTS ............................................ 5 2 MARSHALL OR JACOBS? NEW INSIGHTS 7 2.1 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................... 7 2.2 METHODS AND D A T A .......................................................................................... 10 2.2.1 ESTIMATION A PPROACH........................................................................... 10 2.2.2 D A T A ....................................................................................................... 15 2.3 R ESULTS................................................................................................................ 17 2.3.1 MANUFACTURING .................................................................................... 19 2.3.2 ADVANCED SERVICES .............................................................................. 22 2.3.3 CONSTRUCTION ....................................................................................... 25 2.3.4 BASIC SERVICES....................................................................................... 25 2.3.5 DISCUSSION AND E NDOGENEITY .............................................................. 28 2.4 CONCLUSION.......................................................................................................... 32 APPENDIX2.A .......................................................................................................... 34 3 FORECASTING GDP AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL 39 3.1 M OTIVATION.......................................................................................................... 39 3.2 DATA AND EMPIRICAL S E T U P ............................................................................... 43 3.2.1 D ATA............................................................................................... 43 3.2.2 INDICATOR F O RE CA STS.............................................................................. 48 3.2.3 COMBINATION STRATEGIES....................................................................... 50 3.2.4 FACTOR M ODELS....................................................................................... 52 3.2.5 FORECAST EVALUATION ............................................................................. 53 3.3 R ESULTS............................................................................................................... 55 3.3.1 GENERAL R E SU LTS.................................................................................... 55 3.3.2 DETAILED REGIONAL R E S U LTS ................................................................. 65 3.4 CONCLUSION......................................................................................................... 68 4 REGIONAL DISAGGREGATED GVA FORECASTS 71 4.1 M OTIVATION......................................................................................................... 71 4.2 DATA AND M ETHODOLOGY.................................................................................... 74 4.2.1 D A T A ...................................................................................................... 74 4.2.2 AGGREGATION OF GVA SUB-COMPONENTS............................................... 77 4.2.3 FORECAST P RO CED U RE.............................................................................. 78 4.2.4 POOLING ................................................................................................ 79 4.2.5 FACTOR M ODELS....................................................................................... 80 4.2.6 FORECAST ACCURACY .............................................................................. 81 4.3 R ESULTS................................................................................................................ 83 4.3.1 DISAGGREGATED R E S U LTS ....................................................................... 83 4.3.2 AGGREGATED R E SU LTS ............................................................................. 88 4.3.3 COMPARISON OF THE TWO A PPROACHES.................................................. 90 4.4 CONCLUSION ..................................... : ................................................................. 92 APPENDIX4.A ......................................................................................................... 93 5 EXPORT FORECASTS ** EUROPE: SURVEYS OR H A D DATA? 101 5.1 MOTIVATION............................................................................................................ 101 5.2 DATA AND EMPIRICAL S E T U P .................................................................................104 5.2.1 D A T A ....................................................................................... .... 104 5.2.2 E M P IRIC ALS ETTIN G .. ......................... 107 5.3 R ESULTS...................................................................................................................110 5.3.1 PSEUDO OUT-OF-SAMPLE A N A LY S IS ...........................................................110 5.3.2 ENCOMPASSING T E S T .................................................................................113 5.3.3 ROBUSTNESS C H E C K S.................................................................................114 5.3.4 DISCUSSION OF THE R ESU LTS....................................................................... 117 5.4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION .................................................................................121 APPENDIX 5.* 123 6 CONCLUDING REMARKS 133 LITERATURE 135
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author	Lehmann, Robert 1986-
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dewey-sort	3330
dewey-tens	330 - Economics
discipline	Wirtschaftswissenschaften
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physical	XII, 146 Seiten Diagramme
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series	ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung
series2	ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung
spellingShingle	Lehmann, Robert 1986- Economic growth and business cycle forecasting at the regional level ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung Wirtschaftsstruktur (DE-588)4129504-3 gnd Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd Regionalforschung (DE-588)4177424-3 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4129504-3 (DE-588)4066527-6 (DE-588)4177424-3 (DE-588)4113937-9
title	Economic growth and business cycle forecasting at the regional level
title_auth	Economic growth and business cycle forecasting at the regional level
title_exact_search	Economic growth and business cycle forecasting at the regional level
title_full	Economic growth and business cycle forecasting at the regional level Robert Lehmann
title_fullStr	Economic growth and business cycle forecasting at the regional level Robert Lehmann
title_full_unstemmed	Economic growth and business cycle forecasting at the regional level Robert Lehmann
title_short	Economic growth and business cycle forecasting at the regional level
title_sort	economic growth and business cycle forecasting at the regional level
topic	Wirtschaftsstruktur (DE-588)4129504-3 gnd Wirtschaftswachstum (DE-588)4066527-6 gnd Regionalforschung (DE-588)4177424-3 gnd
topic_facet	Wirtschaftsstruktur Wirtschaftswachstum Regionalforschung Hochschulschrift
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028822694&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
volume_link	(DE-604)BV013457541
work_keys_str_mv	AT lehmannrobert economicgrowthandbusinesscycleforecastingattheregionallevel AT ifoinstitut economicgrowthandbusinesscycleforecastingattheregionallevel

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