The next supreme leader succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran - Nader, Alireza (RAND, 2011)
"Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense."
Preface -- Figures -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1. Introduction -- The Official Procedure for Selecting Iran's Supreme Leader Is Laid Out in the Iranian Constitution -- In Actuality, the Next Succession Is Likely to Occur in a Much Different Way -- The Factional Balance of Power -- The Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih -- Khamenei's Personal Network -- Other Potential Factors Are Not as Relevant if the Succession Happens in the Near Term -- The Trajectory of the Next Succession Will Hinge on How the Three Principal Factors Are Configured at the Time of Khamenei's Departure -- Methodology -- Roadmap of the Report -- Chapter 2. Factor 1: The Factional Balance of Power -- The Factional Landscape in Iran -- The Islamist Right -- The Islamist Left (Reformists) -- Since the Islamic Revolution, Factionalism Has Been More Influential Than Constitutional Process in Decisionmaking and Policymaking Within the Iranian Political System --
- Khomeini Was Able to Keep Factional Jockeying Largely in Check -- Since Khamenei Came to Power in 1989, Factional Competition Has Grown Markedly in Both Intensity and Influence -- Chapter 3. Factor 2: The Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih -- The Absolute View of Velayat-e Faghih -- The Democratic View of Velayat-e Faghih -- The Quietist View of Velayat-e Faghih -- Since Each Faction Has a Different View of Velayat-e Faghih, Whichever Dominates Iran's Political Landscape Will Play a Decisive Role in Shaping Succession -- Chapter 4. Factor 3: Khamenei's Personal Network -- The Members of Khamenei's Personal Network -- The Supreme Leader Has Historically Maintained a Personal Network Instrumental in Making Key Political Decisions -- Khomeini's Personal Network Was the Main Driver of the 1989 Succession -- Since the Mid-1990s, Khamenei and His Personal Network Have Steadily Consolidated Authority and Are Now the Principal Decisionmakers in Iranian Politics --
- Chapter 5. Five Scenarios for Succession of the Supreme Leader in the Near Term -- Indicators That Suggest How Factional Competition Is Evolving -- Indicators That Point to the Prevailing View of Velayat-e Faghih -- Indicators That Signal How Khamenei's Personal Network Is Developing and the Power It Holds -- The Configuration of the Three Factors as of 2011 -- Five Possible Scenarios for Succession of the Current Supreme Leader -- Status Quo: The Supreme Leader Remains Powerful But Not Omnipotent -- Absolutist: The Supreme Leader, a Dictator, Discards Elected Institutions -- Democratic: An Iranian-Stylized Islamic Democracy -- Leadership Council: An Executive Body Beholden to Qom -- Abolition: Demise of the Islamic Republic -- The "Wild Card" Factor: The Nature and Timing of Khamenei's Exit -- The Status Quo and Absolutist Scenarios Seem the Most Likely for the Next Succession -- Chapter 6. Succession of the Supreme Leader in the Longer Term --
- The Longer-Term Effects of the 2009 Election -- The Configuration of the Three Factors Will Change -- Other Factors Will Also Influence Succession in the Longer Term -- The "Old Guard" Will Disappear and Be Replaced -- Domestic Issues Will Inevitably Evolve, Putting Pressure on the Nezam to Adapt -- Iran's Relationship with the United States Will Play a Role -- Chapter 7. Concluding Remarks -- Bibliography
Keywords: Iran / Politics and government / 1997-; Political Science; POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Process / General; POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General; Politik; Heads of state -- Succession -- Iran; Heads of state -- Succession -- Iran -- Forecasting; Staatsoberhaupt; Religiöser Führer; Nachfolge; Iran