Climate change science: a modern synthesis 1 The physical climate
Gespeichert in:
| Beteiligte Personen: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Dordrecht [u.a.]
Springer
2013
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| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025897222&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025897222&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Umfang: | XXVIII, 564 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9789400757561 9789400797321 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Climate change science |b a modern synthesis |n 1 |p The physical climate |c G. Thomas Farmer ; John Cook |
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| 300 | |a XXVIII, 564 S. |b Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. | ||
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| adam_text | Titel: Bd. 1. Climate change science. The physical climate
Autor: Farmer, G. Thomas
Jahr: 2013
Contents
Part I Scientific Principles and the Scientific Method
1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................................................................................3
1.1 Introduction to Global Warming........................................................................................................3
1.2 Greenhouse Effect....................................................................................................................................................3
1.3 Climate Sensitivity..................................................................................................................................................5
1.4 Average Global Temperature from 1880 to 2009....................................................6
1.5 Carbon Dioxide............................................................................................................................................................6
1.6 Global Warming, Climate, and Weather................................................................................7
1.6.1 Arctic Sea Ice Extent 1979-2005............................................................................8
1.6.2 Impacts of Global Warming..............................................................................................8
1.7 Timescales, Positive Feedbacks, and Tipping Points..........................................9
1.8 Energy and Climate Policy........................................................................................................................11
1.8.1 Energy Choices....................................................................................................................................11
1.9 Forcings and Feedbacks..................................................................................................................................12
1.9.1 Earth s Albedo......................................................................................................................................13
1.9.2 Irradiance......................................................................................................................................................13
1.10 Energy Budget................................................................................................................................................................13
1.11 Affected Weather......................................................................................................................................................14
1.12 Hockey Stick Controversy..........................................................................................................................14
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................16
2 Scientific Principles..................................................................................................................................................................17
2.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................18
2.2 Internet Searches........................................................................................................................................................19
2.3 The Warming Earth: Heat and the Principles
of Thermodynamics..............................................................................................................................................19
2.3.1 The Zeroth Law of Thermodynamics................................................................20
2.3.2 The First Law of Thermodynamics........................................................................20
2.3.3 The Second Law of Thermodynamics..............................................................21
2.3.4 The Third Law of Thermodynamics....................................................................21
xvii
X V11 i
Contents
2.4 Climate Scientists......................................................................................................................................................22
2.4.1 Scientific Laws and Climate Scientists........................................................23
2.5 Scientific Jargon..........................................................................................................................................................24
2.6 Communication Between Scientists and the Public..............................................26
2.7 The Concept of Time..........................................................................................................................................27
2.8 From Hothouse to Icehouse......................................................................................................................30
2.9 Earth s Energy Imbalance............................................................................................................................30
2.10 An Introduction to Science........................................................................................................................30
2.10.1 Reasons to Study Science................................................................................................31
2.10.2 The Philosophy of Science..............................................................................................32
2.10.3 Early History of Science....................................................................................................33
2.10.4 Aristotle (384-322 BC)........................................................................................................34
2.11 Early Scientists..............................................................................................................................................................34
2.11.1 Pliny the Elder (23 AD-79 AD)............................................................................35
2.11.2 Claudius Ptolemy (c. AD 90-c. AD 168)............................................35
2.11.3 Nicolaus Copernicus (1473-1543)....................................................................36
2.11.4 Galileo Galilei (1564—1642)........................................................................................36
2.11.5 Francis Bacon (1561-1626)..........................................................................................37
2.11.6 Johannes Kepler and Tycho Brahe......................................................................37
2.11.7 Isaac Newton........................................................................................................................................38
2.12 Empiricism..........................................................................................................................................................................38
2.13 Inductive Logic............................................................................................................................................................38
2.14 Multiple Working Hypotheses..............................................................................................................39
2.15 Deductive Logic..........................................................................................................................................................40
2.16 Models and Simulations................................................................................................................................40
2.17 The Nature of Science........................................................................................................................................41
2.18 The Science of Nature........................................................................................................................................41
2.19 Chaos Theory..................................................................................................................................................................42
2.20 Scientific Notation..................................................................................................................................................43
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................46
3 The Scientific Method and Its Use..................................................................................................................47
3.1 The Scientific Method.........................................................................................................48
3.2 A Linearized Approach to the Scientific Method....................................................53
3.3 Data Collection - Experimentation, Measurement,
Observation........................................................................................................................................................................55
3.4 Ideas, Persistence, Documentation, Testing,
Reproducibility, Publication....................................................................................................................55
3.5 Hypotheses..........................................................................................................................................................................57
3.6 Theories....................................................................................................................................................................................57
3.7 Newton s Laws of Motion............................................................................................................................58
3.8 The Peer-Review Process..............................................................................................................................58
3.9 Use of the Scientific Method....................................................................................................................59
3.9.1 James Hutton and Uniformitarianism............................................................59
3.9.2 Charles Darwin and the Origin of Species..............................................60
3.9.3 James Watson and Francis
Crick - The Structure of DNA..................................................................................62
Contents xix
3.9.4 Harry Hess and Plate Tectonic Theory....................................................63
3.9.5 Plate Tectonic Theory........................................................................................................64
3.9.6 Wallace Broecker and the First
Use of the Term Global Warming....................................................................65
3.10 Use of the Scientific Method in Climate Change Science..........................66
3.10.1 Joseph Fourier and the Greenhouse Effect........................................67
3.10.2 John Tyndall and Thermal Radiation..........................................................67
3.10.3 Svante Arrhenius and Carbon Dioxide....................................................68
3.10.4 T. C. Chamberlin and the Ice Ages................................................................69
3.10.5 Guy Stewart Callendar and Rising Temperatures....................69
3.10.6 Gilbert Plass and Doubling of Carbon Dioxide..........................70
3.10.7 Hans Suess and Carbon-14 in Carbon Dioxide............................71
3.10.8 Roger Revelle and Ocean Chemistry..........................................................72
3.10.9 Charles David Keeling and CO,..........................................................................73
3.10.10 Syukuro ( Suki ) Manabe and Climate Modeling..................74
3.10.11 James Hansen and Temperature Analysis............................................75
3.10.12 William Ruddiman and Paleoclimate..........................................................75
3.10.13 Gavin Schmidt and GISS..............................................................................................76
3.10.14 Stefan Rahmstorf, Sea Level
and Temperature Rise........................................................................................................76
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................76
Part II Overview of Climate Change Science
4 Earth s Energy Budget......................................................................................................................................................81
4.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................................................................82
4.2 Weather and Climate................................................................................................................................................83
4.3 Solar and Heat Energy..........................................................................................................................................83
4.4 Earth s Radiation Laws........................................................................................................................................85
4.5 Earth s Energy Imbalance................................................................................................................................91
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................94
5 Climate Change Trends....................................................................................................................................................97
5.1 Climate Change Trends....................................................................................................................................98
5.2 Rising Temperatures............................................................................................................................................99
5.2.1 Temperature Scales................................................................................................................100
5.2.2 Temperatures Shown by Graphs........................................................................100
5.2.3 Rising Land and Sea Temperatures................................................................103
5.2.4 Tropospheric Warming and Stratospheric Cooling................103
5.3 Sources of Uncertainty with Temperature Data..........................................................104
5.4 Climate Construction from Instrumental Data..............................................................105
5.5 Measurement of Temperature................................................................................................................105
5.5.1 Global Temperature from Meteorological Stations..............106
5.6 The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) Study............................106
5.7 Land Temperatures from Boreholes..............................................................................................107
5.8 Rising Sea Temperatures................................................................................................................................108
xx Contents
5.8.1 Relative Distribution of Sea-Surface
Temperatures (SSTs)............................................................................................................109
5.8.2 Ocean Heat Content..............................................................................................................110
5.9 Melting Ice..........................................................................................................................................................................110
5.9.1 Permafrost, Methane, and Clathrates..........................................................113
5.9.2 Methane Clathrates................................................................................................................114
5.10 Rising Sea Level........................................................................................................................................................115
5.11 Migration of Plants and Animals......................................................................................................116
5.12 Species Extinctions................................................................................................................................................116
5.13 Human Health Effects of Rising Temperatures..........................................................117
5.14 Attribution............................................................................................................................................................................118
5.15 Greenhouse Gases....................................................................................................................................................119
5.16 Human Fingerprints on Global Warming..............................................................................121
5.16.1 Earth s Cooling Upper Atmosphere..............................................................121
5.16.2 Rising Tropopause..................................................................................................................122
5.16.3 Less Heat Escaping to Space..................................................................................122
5.16.4 Nights Warming Faster than Days..................................................................122
5.16.5 Winter Warming Faster than Summer........................................................122
5.16.6 More Fossil Fuel Carbon in Coral..................................................................122
5.16.7 Shrinking Upper Atmosphere................................................................................123
5.16.8 Less Oxygen in the Atmosphere........................................................................123
5.16.9 More Fossil Fuel Carbon in the Atmosphere..................................123
5.16.10 More Heat Returning to Earth................................................................................123
5.16.11 Pattern of Ocean Warming..........................................................................................123
5.17 Components of the Climate Change Process..................................................................125
5.18 Other Effects of Global Warming....................................................................................................126
5.19 Forcings and Feedbacks in the Climate System........................................................127
5.19.1 Forcings....................................................................................................................................................127
5.19.2 Positive and Negative Forcing and Their Effects......................128
5.19.3 Feedbacks..............................................................................................................................................128
5.20 Climate Sensitivity..................................................................................................................................................130
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................132
6 Earth s Surface Temperature................................................................................................................................135
6.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................136
6.2 Tipping Points................................................................................................................................................................138
6.3 Temperature Records..........................................................................................................................................139
6.4 Data Reduction..............................................................................................................................................................140
6.5 Data Analysis..................................................................................................................................................................140
6.6 Climate Data Analysis Tools (CDAT)........................................................................................140
6.7 Data Reporting..............................................................................................................................................................141
6.8 Average Land Temperatures....................................................................................................................141
6.9 History of the Development of the Global
Average Temperature..........................................................................................................................................141
6.10 Current Analysis Method..............................................................................................................................142
Contents xxi
6.11 Temperature Anomalies..................................................................................................................................144
6.12 History of Temperature Recordings..............................................................................................149
6.13 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)....................................................................................................150
6.14 Projections of Future Temperatures..............................................................................................153
6.15 The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios
(SRES), 2007..................................................................................................................................................................154
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................157
7 Climate Change Science as Earth Science........................................................................................159
7.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................160
7.2 Climate Science as Earth Science....................................................................................................160
7.3 The Faint Young Sun Paradox..............................................................................................................161
7.4 The Gaia Hypothesis............................................................................................................................................162
7.5 Introduction to Life Science......................................................................................................................163
7.6 Introduction to the Atmosphere..........................................................................................................164
7.7 Open System Science..........................................................................................................................................165
7.8 Uniformitarianism and Climate Change Science......................................................166
7.9 Recent Climate Data and Future Projections..................................................................166
7.10 Components of the Climate Change System..................................................................167
7.11 Good Science, Bad Science, and Non-Science............................................................167
7.12 Examples of Good Science........................................................................................................................168
7.13 Examples of Bad Science..............................................................................................................................169
7.14 Examples of Non-Science............................................................................................................................170
7.15 Ethics in Science........................................................................................................................................................171
7.16 The Concept of Scale in Earth and Climate
Change Science............................................................................................................................................................172
7.17 Map Scales..........................................................................................................................................................................173
7.18 Fractals......................................................................................................................................................................................174
7.19 Graph Scales....................................................................................................................................................................175
7.20 Time Scales........................................................................................................................................................................175
7.21 Earth Scales........................................................................................................................................................................175
7.22 Planetary Scales..........................................................................................................................................................175
7.23 Cosmic Scales...............................................................................................................................................................175
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................176
Part III Earth s Atmosphere
8 Introduction to Earth s Atmosphere..........................................................................................................179
8.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................180
8.2 The Atmosphere..........................................................................................................................................................181
8.3 Composition of the Atmosphere..........................................................................................................181
8.3.1 Carbon Dioxide....................................................................................................................................183
8.3.2 Methane (CH4)......................................................................................................................................188
8.3.3 Nitrous Oxide (N,0)....................................................................................................................188
8.3.4 Ozone (03).......... ..............................................................................................................................188
8.3.5 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)............................................................................................189
xxii Contents
8.3.6 Other Trace Gases....................................................................................................................189
8.3.7 Aerosols..................................................................................................................................................190
8.4 Lapse Rate............................................................................................................................................................................190
8.5 Vertical Structure of the Atmosphere..........................................................................................191
8.6 Atmospheric Circulation................................................................................................................................194
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................198
9 Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases,
and the Carbon Cycle..........................................................................................................................................................199
9.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................200
9.2 Carbon Dioxide (C02)......................................................................................................................................200
9.2.1 The Keeling Curve..................................................................................................................202
9.3 The Carbon Cycle....................................................................................................................................................203
9.4 Carbon Dioxide and the Carbon Cycle....................................................................................204
9.5 Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide......................................................................................204
9.5.1 Sources of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide............................................207
9.5.2 Oxidation - Reduction of Carbon....................................................................207
9.5.3 Sinks of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide....................................................208
9.5.4 Carbon Cycle Disequilibrium................................................................................209
9.5.5 Restoring Carbon Cycle Equilibrium........................................................209
9.6 Methane (CH4)..............................................................................................................................................................210
9.6.1 Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Methane..................................211
9.7 Nitrous Oxide..................................................................................................................................................................212
9.7.1 Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide................212
9.7.2 Increases in Atmospheric Nitrous
Oxide Concentration............................................................................................................212
9.8 Halocarbons......................................................................................................................................................................213
9.8.1 Sources and Sinks of Halocarbons..................................................................213
9.8.2 Increases in Atmospheric Halocarbons
Concentration..................................................................................................................................213
9.9 Ozone..........................................................................................................................................................................................213
9.10 Other Trace Gases....................................................................................................................................................215
9.11 Atmospheric Residence Time of Greenhouse Gases..........................................215
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................215
10 Earth s Albedo, Radiative Forcing and Climate Change........................................217
10.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................218
10.1.1 Earth s Albedo................................................................................................................................218
10.1.2 Radiative Forcing......................................................................................................................220
10.1.3 Global Warming Potentials (GWPs)............................................................222
10.1.4 Calculation of Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing................223
10.1.5 Radiative Forcing of Ozone......................................................................................223
10.1.6 Aerosols....................................................................................................................................................224
10.1.7 Direct Radiative Forcing................................................................................................225
10.1.8 Indirect Radiative Forcing............................................................................................226
10.1.9 Total Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing:
Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols........................................................................226
Contents xxiii
10.1.10 Observed Climate Variations................................................................................226
10.1.11 Clouds and Their Impacts on Climate Change........................227
10.1.12 Orographic Rainfall............................................................................................................228
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................229
11 Atmospheric Circulation and Climate....................................................................................................231
11.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................232
11.2 Atmospheric Circulation............................................................................................................................232
11.3 Insolation............................................................................................................................................................................233
11.4 Air Flow Patterns..................................................................................................................................................234
11.5 Climate Change Effects on Atmospheric Circulations................................237
11.6 Extreme Weather Events............................................................................................................................239
11.6.1 Washington, D.C. Metro Rainfall..................................................................240
11.6.2 Binghamton, N. Y. - Rainfall................................................................................240
11.6.3 Allentown, PA. - Rainfall........................................................................................240
11.6.4 Harrisburg, PA - Rainfall..........................................................................................240
11.6.5 Cincinnati, Ohio - Rainfall....................................................................................240
11.6.6 Dayton, Ohio - Rainfall..............................................................................................240
11.6.7 Colorado Springs, Colorado - Rainfall................................................241
11.6.8 Tucson, Arizona - Rainfall....................................................................................241
11.7 Record Heat..................................................................................................................................................................241
11.7.1 Houston, Texas..........................................................................................................................241
11.7.2 Dallas, Texas................................................................................................................................241
11.7.3 Phoenix, Arizona....................................................................................................................241
11.7.4 Seattle, Washington............................................................................................................241
11.7.5 Corpus Christi, Texas......................................................................................................242
11.8 Record Cold..................................................................................................................................................................242
11.8.1 International Falls, Minnesota..........................................................................242
11.9 Record River Flooding..................................................................................................................................242
11.10 Tropical Storm Lee s Tornadoes....................................................................................................242
11.11 Other Meteorological Events..............................................................................................................242
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................243
Part IV The World Ocean and Climate
12 The World Ocean........................................................................................................................................................................247
12.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................248
12.2 The World Ocean..................................................................................................................................................248
12.3 Ocean Salinity............................................................................................................................................................249
12.4 Ocean Topography..............................................................................................................................................250
12.5 The World Ocean and Carbon Dioxide................................................................................253
12.6 Ocean Acidification..........................................................................................................................................254
12.7 Oceanic Circulation..........................................................................................................................................255
12.7.1 Thermohaline Circulation........................................................................................256
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................257
xxiv Contents
13 Ocean Heat Content and Rising Sea Level......................................................................................261
13.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................262
13.2 Global Warming and Sea Level Rise......................................................................................262
13.3 Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Arctic Sea Ice..................................................................263
13.4 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)......................................................................265
13.5 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)............................................................................................266
13.6 Future Potential Sea Level Rise......................................................................................................266
13.7 Ocean Heat Content..........................................................................................................................................268
13.8 El Niño - La Niña (or ENSO)............................................................................................................269
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................273
Part V Earth s Cryosphere and Recent Climate History
14 Glaciers and the Latest Ice Age..........................................................................................................................277
14.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................278
14.2 Greenland Ice Sheet..........................................................................................................................................279
14.3 Antarctica..........................................................................................................................................................................284
14.4 Mountain Glaciers................................................................................................................................................287
14.5 Ice Cores............................................................................................................................................................................291
14.6 Stable Isotope Analysis................................................................................................................................292
14.7 Ice Cores and Proxies...................................................................................293
14.7.1 Dating Ice Cores..........................................................................................................................293
14.7.2 Mountain Glacier Ice Cores......................................................................................294
14.8 The Ice Age ............................................................................................................................................................296
14.8.1 History........................................................................................................................................................296
14.8.2 Climate Forcing by Orbital Variations......................................................296
14.8.3 Eccentricity........................................................................................................................................297
14.8.4 Obliquity................................................................................................................................................298
14.8.5 Precession............................................................................................................................................299
14.9 Milankovitch Cycles and Ice Ages............................................................................................300
14.10 Solar Variations........................................................................................................................................................302
14.11 Questions Not Explained by Milankovitch Cycles............................................305
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................306
15 Permafrost and Methane................................................................................................................................................307
15.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................308
15.2 Distribution....................................................................................................................................................................308
15.3 Origin of Permafrost........................................................................................................................................310
15.4 Methane Chemistry...................................................................... 311
15.5 Future Projections for Permafrost and Methane.......................... 314
15.6 Methane Gun Hypothesis............................................................. 315
Additional Readings.................................................................................. 316
Contents
X.X.V
Part VI Land and Its Climates
16 Continents and Mountain Ranges..................................................................................................................321
16.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................322
16.2 Continental Drift........................................................................................................................................................323
16.3 Harry Hess and Sea-Floor Spreading..........................................................................................324
16.4 Plate Tectonics..............................................................................................................................................................326
16.4.1 Types of Plate Boundaries..............................................................................................327
16.5 Continental Mountain Ranges................................................................................................................331
16.6 Islands........................................................................................................................................................................................337
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................337
17 Climate Classifications........................................................................................................................................................339
17.1 An Introduction to Climate Classification..........................................................................340
17.2 Air Masses..........................................................................................................................................................................342
17.3 Modern Climate Classification............................................................................................................345
17.3.1 The Bergeron Climate Classification..............................................................345
17.4 The Köppen-Geiger Classification..................................................................................................346
17.4.1 Group A Climates........................................................................................................................346
17.4.2 Group B Climates........................................................................................................................347
17.4.3 Group C Climates........................................................................................................................347
17.4.4 Group D Climates........................................................................................................................348
17.4.5 Group E Climates........................................................................................................................349
17.5 The Thornthwaite Climate Classification............................................................................350
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................351
Part VII Climate Models
18 Types of Models..............................................................................................................................................................................355
18.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................356
18.2 Climate Models............................................................................................................................................................356
18.2.1 Simplifying the Climate System............................................................................357
18.2.2 Boundary Conditions..............................................................................................................357
18.2.3 Climate Modeling Centers..............................................................................................360
18.3 Types of Climate Models..............................................................................................................................365
18.3.1 Box Models............................................................................................................................................365
18.3.2 Energy Balance Models......................................................................................................365
18.3.3 Radiative-Convective Models....................................................................................368
18.3.4 Statistical-Dynamical Models....................................................................................368
18.3.5 General Circulation Models..........................................................................................368
18.4 Confidence and Validation..........................................................................................................................369
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................370
XXVI
Contents
Part VIII Climates of the Past (Paleoclimatology)
19 Ancient Climates and Proxies................................................................................................................................375
19.1 Introduction...................................................................................................................................376
19.2 Historical Records................................................................................................................................................377
19.3 Ice Cores............................................................................................................................................................................378
19.4 Stable Isotope Analysis................................................................................................................................378
19.5 Ice Cores and Proxies......................................................................................................................................378
19.6 Dating Ice Cores....................................................................................................................................................378
19.7 Dendroclimatology............................................................................................................................................379
19.8 Ocean Sediments....................................................................................................................................................379
19.9 Paleoclimate Reconstruction from Biogenic Material..................................380
19.10 Paleoclimate Reconstruction from Terrigenous Material........................384
19.11 Terrestrial Sediments......................................................................................................................................384
19.12 Periglacial Features............................................................................................................................................385
19.13 Glacial Fluctuations..........................................................................................................................................385
19.14 Lake-Level Fluctuations..............................................................................................................................385
19.14.1 Russia s Lake El gygytgyn (Lake E)......................................................386
19.15 Pollen Analysis........................................................................................................................................................389
19.16 Sedimentary Rocks............................................................................................................................................390
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................391
20 Climates of the Recent Past........................................................................................................................................393
20.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................394
20.2 Holocene Climates..............................................................................................................................................394
20.3 Younger Dryas Cooling................................................................................................................................396
20.4 Mid-Holocene Thermal Maximum............................................................................................397
20.5 Late Holocene Neoglaciation..............................................................................................................398
20.6 Little Ice Age..............................................................................................................................................................398
20.7 Medieval Warm Period..................................................................................................................................398
20.8 Holocene Climate Forcing Mechanisms............................................................................399
20.9 Coupled Internally-Externally Driven Climate Change..............................400
20.10 Contemporary Climate Change........................................................................................................400
, Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................406
21 Pleistocene Glaciations......................................................................................................................................................407
21.1 Glacials and Interglacials..........................................................................................................................409
21.2 Causes of Glacial Advances and Retreats........................................................................411
21.3 Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum................................................................................411
21.4 Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM)....................................................................412
21.5 The Cooling Begins..........................................................................................................................................412
21.6 Formation of the Isthmus of Panama and the Freezing
of the Arctic..................................................................................................................................................................413
21.7 Other Influences and Possible Causes of Ice Ages............................................415
21.8 Maximum Extent and Characteristics
of Continental Glaciers................................................................................................................................416
21.8.1 The N orth American Ice Li ne............................................................................418
Contents
XXVil
21.8.2 Europe and Asia s Continental Glaciation..............................................419
21.8.3 Southern Hemisphere Glaciation..........................................................................420
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................427
Part IX Future Climates and Mitigation
22 Projections of Future Climates............................................................................................................................431
22.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................432
22.2 Hotter - Global Warming..............................................................................................................................433
22.3 Flatter - The Digital Age................................................................................................................................433
22.4 More Crowded - Population Increase........................................................................................434
22.4.1 Population and Demographics..................................................................................436
22.5 IPCC Projections of Future Climate Change..................................................................438
22.6 Politics and Global Warming..................................................................................................................440
22.6.1 Politicians and Their Views..........................................................................................440
22.6.2 Ronald Reagan..................................................................................................................................441
22.6.3 Richard Nixon...............................................................................441
22.6.4 Barak Obama......................................................................................................................................441
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................442
Part X Understanding Climate Change Denial
23 Understanding Climate Change Denial................................................................................................445
23.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................446
23.2 Basis for the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change..................................446
23.3 Characteristics of Denial................................................................................................................................449
23.3.1 Fake Experts........................................................................................................................................450
23.3.2 Cherry Picking..................................................................................................................................451
23.3.3 Logical Fallacies............................................................................................................................452
23.3.4 Impossible Expectations....................................................................................................454
23.3.5 Conspiracy Theories................................................................................................................454
23.3.6 Denial Characteristics at a Psychological Level............................456
23.4 Drivers of Climate Denial............................................................................................................................457
23.4.1 Conservative Ideology..........................................................................................................458
23.4.2 Conservative Think Tanks..............................................................................................458
23.4.3 Mainstream Media s Balance-as-Bias..........................................................459
23.4.4 Government..........................................................................................................................................460
23.4.5 Corporate Vested Interests..............................................................................................461
23.4.6 Internet..........................................................................................................................................................461
23.5 Responding to Climate Denial..............................................................................................................462
23.5.1 Familiarity Backfire Effect............................................................................................462
23.5.2 Overkill Backfire Effect......................................................................................................463
23.5.3 Worldview Backfire Effect..............................................................................................463
23.5.4 Alternative Explanation......................................................................................................464
23.5.5 Summary....................................................................................................................................................464
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................464
xxviii
Contents
Part XI Specific Declarations Against Climate Science
and Climate Scientists
24 Rebuttals to Climate Myths...................................................................................................................469
24.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................470
24.2 Fake Experts......................................................................................................................................................................470
24.2.1 A Petition of Tens of Thousands of Non-experts........................470
24.2.2 A Contrarian Take on Climate Sensitivity..............................................471
24.3 Cherry Picking..............................................................................................................................................................472
24.3.1 Warming at Over Two Hiroshima Bombs
per Second..............................................................................................................................................472
24.3.2 Hockey Stick Versus Hockey Team..................................................................474
24.3.3 Sun and Climate Moving in Opposite Directions........................475
24.3.4 Human Emissions Upsetting the Natural Balance......................476
24.4 Logical Fallacies........................................................................................................................................................476
24.4.1 What Does Past Climate Change Tell Us?..............................................477
24.4.2 CO, Lag - The Chicken and Egg Dilemma..........................................478
24.4.3 What Were Scientists Predicting in the 1970s?..............................479
24.4.4 How a Trace Gas Has Such a Significant Effect............................480
24.5 Impossible Expectations.......................................................................480
24.5.1 What Lessons Do We Learn from Past
Model Predictions?....................................................................................................................480
24.5.2 Science Is Never Settled....................................................................................................481
24.5.3 Uncertainty Is Not Our Friend..................................................................................482
24.6 Conspiracy Theories............................................................................................................................................483
24.6.1 Nine Climategate Investigations Across
Two Countries....................................................................................................................................483
24.6.2 Confusing Mike s Trick with Hide the Decline ....................484
24.6.3 Tracking Down Trenberth s Missing Heat ........................................485
Additional Readings....................................................................................................................................................................485
Appendices..............................................................................................................................................................................................................487
Abbreviations....................................................................................................................................................................................................493
Glossary......................................................................................................................................................................................................................503
Index..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................535
G. Thomas Farmer · John Cook
Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis
Volume 1 - The Physical Climate
Climate Change Science: A Modern Synthesis introduces the principles of climate change
science, emphasizing the empirical evidence for climate change and a warming world.
Divided into eleven sections, this comprehensive book opens with an introduction to
basic scientific principles including the scientific method, the laws of thermodynamics,
the gathering and interpretation of data, biographical notes on a few of the giants of
science and their contributions, profiles of selected climate change scientists and their
contributions, Newtons laws of motion and more.
The remaining sections include an Overview of Climate Change Science; Earths Atmos-
phere; The World Ocean and Climate; Earths Cryosphere and Climate History; Land
and Its Climates; Climate Models; Paleoclimatologv; Future Climates and Mitigation;
Skeptics and Deniers of Olobal Warming and Specific Declarations against Climate Sci-
ence and Climate Scientists. The book offers extensive coverage of the major aspects of
climate change and its effects and interactions with the atmosphere, the World Ocean,
glaciers and land. Modeling the Climate receives its own chapter, and there are sections
on past climates and a chapter outlining the ideas of climate change skeptics and deniers
and the scientific evidence that either refutes or substantiates their claims.
Each chapter opens with a list of “Things to Know.” The book goes on to offer chapter-
length discussion of the atmosphere, biosphere, geosphere, hydrosphere and anthro-
pospliere and their inter-relationships and much more. Designed as an introductory
text for use at the undergraduate level, Climate Change Science assumes no science
background on the part of the reader.
|
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| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T16:27:09Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9789400757561 9789400797321 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-025897222 |
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| publishDate | 2013 |
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| publisher | Springer |
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| spellingShingle | Farmer, G. Thomas Cook, John Climate change science a modern synthesis |
| title | Climate change science a modern synthesis |
| title_auth | Climate change science a modern synthesis |
| title_exact_search | Climate change science a modern synthesis |
| title_full | Climate change science a modern synthesis 1 The physical climate G. Thomas Farmer ; John Cook |
| title_fullStr | Climate change science a modern synthesis 1 The physical climate G. Thomas Farmer ; John Cook |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change science a modern synthesis 1 The physical climate G. Thomas Farmer ; John Cook |
| title_short | Climate change science |
| title_sort | climate change science a modern synthesis the physical climate |
| title_sub | a modern synthesis |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025897222&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025897222&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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| work_keys_str_mv | AT farmergthomas climatechangescienceamodernsynthesis1 AT cookjohn climatechangescienceamodernsynthesis1 |
Inhaltsverzeichnis
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| Signatur: |
1002 GEO 781f 2016 A 6024-1 Lageplan |
|---|---|
| Exemplar 1 | Ausleihbar Am Standort |