Gespeichert in:
| Beteiligte Personen: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Bonn
DIE
2011
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Discussion paper
2011,8 |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024776235&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Beschreibung: | Literaturangaben |
| Umfang: | 37 S. graph. Darst. 30 cm |
| ISBN: | 9783889855374 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Predicting social tipping points |b current research and the way forward |c Sonja Grimm ; Gerald Schneider. [DIE, Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik] |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Predicting social tipping points
Autor: Grimm, Sonja
Jahr: 2011
Contents
Executive Summary 1
1 Introduction 3
1.1 The concept of tipping points in the natural sciences 4
1.2 Value of the concept for the social sciences 5
1.3 Forecasting True Positives and True Negatives 7
1.4 Selection of approaches for predicting social tipping points 9
1.5 Study outline 10
2 Definition of key concepts and introduction of a theoretical model 10
2.1 Social tipping points 10
2.2 Fragile statehood 11
2.3 Our theoretical model of a social tipping point situation 13
3 Approaches for predicting tipping points 17
3.1 Structural approaches 18
3.2 Dynamic approaches 20
3.3 Game theoretic approaches 22
3.4 Comparison of the three approaches: strengths and weaknesses 24
4 The use of the tipping point concept in development policy 24
4.1 Applicability of the tipping point concept in development policy 24
4.2 Challenges of early warning 25
4.3 Conditions for successful early warning 28
5 Conclusions and recommendations 28
5.1 Main findings 28
5.2 Recommendations 29
5.3 Avenues for further research 30
Bibliography 33
Figure 1: A visualization of four ideal type social tipping point models 16
Table 1: Comparing the applicability of the three prediction approaches 17
|
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| author | Grimm, Sonja 1978- Schneider, Gerald 1962- |
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| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)780134189 (DE-599)DNB1012194027 |
| discipline | Politologie Soziologie |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV039917679 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T16:05:16Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783889855374 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-024776235 |
| oclc_num | 780134189 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | 37 S. graph. Darst. 30 cm |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateSearch | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | DIE |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Discussion paper / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik |
| spellingShingle | Grimm, Sonja 1978- Schneider, Gerald 1962- Predicting social tipping points current research and the way forward |
| title | Predicting social tipping points current research and the way forward |
| title_auth | Predicting social tipping points current research and the way forward |
| title_exact_search | Predicting social tipping points current research and the way forward |
| title_full | Predicting social tipping points current research and the way forward Sonja Grimm ; Gerald Schneider. [DIE, Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik] |
| title_fullStr | Predicting social tipping points current research and the way forward Sonja Grimm ; Gerald Schneider. [DIE, Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting social tipping points current research and the way forward Sonja Grimm ; Gerald Schneider. [DIE, Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik] |
| title_short | Predicting social tipping points |
| title_sort | predicting social tipping points current research and the way forward |
| title_sub | current research and the way forward |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024776235&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV021251505 |
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