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Economic forecasting and policy:

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Bibliographic Details
Previous Title:	Carnot, Nicolas Economic forecasting
Main Authors:	Carnot, Nicolas 1973- (Author), Koen, Vincent 1960- (Author), Tissot, Bruno 1966- (Author)
Format:	Book
Language:	English
Published:	Basingstoke [u.a.] Palgrave Macmillan 2011
Edition:	2. ed.
Subjects:	Wirtschaft Economic forecasting BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Money & Monetary Policy BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Theory Prognoseverfahren Prognose Wirtschaftsentwicklung
Links:	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024392645&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
Item Description:	references and index
Physical Description:	XX, 495 S. graph. Darst.
ISBN:	9780230243217 9780230243224 0230243215 0230243223

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Record in the Search Index

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adam_text	Titel: Economic forecasting and policy Autor: Carnot, Nicolas Jahr: 2011 Contents List ofFigures viii List of Tables x List ofBoxes xi Foreword by Jean-Philippe Cotis xiii Acknowledgements xv List of Abbreviations xvi Introduction 1 What is economic forecasting? 2 The book s aims 2 Roadmap 3 1 Overview 5 1.1 What to forecast? 7 1.2 Why forecast? 12 1.3 How to forecast? 16 1.4 Frequently asked questions 21 2 Business Cycle Analysis 24 2.1 Monitoring the ups and downs 25 2.2 Collecting economic information 26 2.3 Business and consumer surveys 29 2.4 Making sense of the data 38 2.5 Bridge modeis 54 2.6 Final health warning 59 Appendix 2.1 Some useful concepts and tools 61 3 Real Sector Building Blocks 66 3.1 Business investment 70 3.2 Household spending 80 3.3 Imports and exports 88 3.4 Employment 93 3.5 Prices and wages 95 Appendix 3.1 Sectoral forecasting 107 Appendix 3.2 Commodity prices 112 Appendix 3.3 Semi-structural estimation ofthe NAIRU 117 vi Contents 4 Financial Sector Dynamics 119 4.1 Dealing with volatility 121 4.2 Short-term interest rates 125 4.3 Long-term interest rates 145 4.4 Bond prices and yield spreads 151 4.5 Stock prices 153 4.6 Real estate prices 155 4.7 Exchange rates 159 Appendix 4.1 Integrating the financial stability perspective - lessons from the 2007 financial crisis 170 Appendix 4.2 Technical analysis 182 Appendix 4.3 Country risk analysis 184 5 Public Finances 191 5.1 The macroeconomic view 193 5.2 The detailed approach 193 5.3 Long-run fiscal trends 203 5.4 Fiscal policy analysis 205 5.5 Forecasting Performance 215 Appendix 5.1 Fiscal implications of financial sector rescues 219 Appendix 5.2 The fiscal response to the 2007 financial crisis 221 6 Medium- and Long-Run Projections 223 6.1 The medium run 225 6.2 The long run 246 7 Risks and Accuracy 265 7.1 Conceptual issues 267 7.2 Analysing errors 271 7.3 Forecasters track record 274 7.4 What causes errors? 281 7.5 Can accuracy be improved? 285 7.6 Accuracy is not enough - assessing the risks around forecasts 288 Appendix 7.1 Measuring accuracy in practice 296 Appendix 7.2 Can forecasters predict severe crises? Recent lessons 302 8 Policy Making and Forecasts 309 8.1 Economic forecasts virtues and limitations 311 8.2 Forecasts and macroeconomic policy 316 8.3 Private sector uses 324 8.4 Explaining the technicalities 326 Contents vii 8.5 Transparency 331 8.6 Science or politics? 334 Appendix 8.1 A world tour ofthe forecasting institutions 339 Epilogue 354 Annex I The data 357 ALI The national accounts framework 359 AI.2 Quarterly national accounting 374 AI.3 Technical hurdles 377 AI.4 Open questions and limitations 388 Annex II Time series methods 396 All. 1 Time series methods used for macroeconomic forecasts 398 AII.2 Volatility modelling 422 Annex III Macroeconomic modeis 435 AIII.l General features 436 AIII.2 Macroeconomic logic 437 AIII.3 Estimation and Simulation properties 443 AIII.4 Forecasting with a model 448 AIII.5 Overall assessment 456 Bibliography 463 Index 484
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author	Carnot, Nicolas 1973- Koen, Vincent 1960- Tissot, Bruno 1966-
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dewey-ones	330 - Economics
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dewey-search	330.9001/12
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dewey-tens	330 - Economics
discipline	Wirtschaftswissenschaften
edition	2. ed.
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spellingShingle	Carnot, Nicolas 1973- Koen, Vincent 1960- Tissot, Bruno 1966- Economic forecasting and policy Wirtschaft Economic forecasting BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Money & Monetary Policy bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Theory bisacsh Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4066438-7
title	Economic forecasting and policy
title_auth	Economic forecasting and policy
title_exact_search	Economic forecasting and policy
title_full	Economic forecasting and policy Nicolas Carnot ; Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot
title_fullStr	Economic forecasting and policy Nicolas Carnot ; Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot
title_full_unstemmed	Economic forecasting and policy Nicolas Carnot ; Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot
title_old	Carnot, Nicolas Economic forecasting
title_short	Economic forecasting and policy
title_sort	economic forecasting and policy
topic	Wirtschaft Economic forecasting BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Money & Monetary Policy bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Theory bisacsh Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd
topic_facet	Wirtschaft Economic forecasting BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Money & Monetary Policy BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Theory Prognoseverfahren Prognose Wirtschaftsentwicklung
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work_keys_str_mv	AT carnotnicolas economicforecastingandpolicy AT koenvincent economicforecastingandpolicy AT tissotbruno economicforecastingandpolicy

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