Modelling future residential development: a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis/Dissertation Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Berlin
Univ.-Verl. der TU Berlin
2010
|
| Series: | Global change of the water cycle
|
| Subjects: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=021100406&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Physical Description: | XXII, 174 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9783798322769 |
Staff View
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| 100 | 1 | |a Hoymann, Jana |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Modelling future residential development |b a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin |c Jana Hoymann |
| 264 | 1 | |a Berlin |b Univ.-Verl. der TU Berlin |c 2010 | |
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| 490 | 0 | |a Global change of the water cycle | |
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Record in the Search Index
| DE-BY-TUM_call_number | 0001 2012 A 4209 |
|---|---|
| DE-BY-TUM_katkey | 1862955 |
| DE-BY-TUM_location | Mag |
| DE-BY-TUM_media_number | 040007522069 |
| _version_ | 1821933857352450049 |
| adam_text | Contents
Danksagung
v
Summary
vii
Zusammenfassung xi
Contents xviii
List of Figures
xx
List of Tables
xxii
1
Introduction
1
1.1
Development of built-up areas
................ 1
1.1.1
Reduction of growth rates of built-up areas as an ob¬
jective for measuring sustainable development
... 4
1.1.2
Development of built-up areas and demographic
change (social dimension)
.............. 8
1.1.3
Development of built-up areas and infrastructure (eco¬
nomic dimension)
.................. 9
1.1.4
Development of built-up areas and natural environ¬
ment (ecological dimension)
............. 10
1.1.5
Development of built-up areas within GLOWA-Elbe
12
1.2
Main research question
.................... 13
1.3
The scenario approach
.................... 14
1.3.1
Theory of scenarios
.................. 14
1.3.2
Existing urban land use scenario studies
....... 16
CONTENTS
1.3.3
Scenarios in the GLOWA-Elbe project
........ 18
1.4
Modelling built-up areas
................... 21
1.4.1
Theory and Methods
................. 21
1.4.2
The Land Use Scanner model
............ 24
1.5
Methodological research deficit
................ 27
1.6
Outline of the thesis
...................... 28
1.6.1
Structure of the thesis
................. 28
1.6.2
Study area and considered land use types
...... 30
Spatial allocation of future residential land use in the Elbe River
Basin
33
2.1
Introduction
.......................... 33
2.2
Residential development in the Elbe River Basin
....... 35
2.3
Data and Methods
....................... 35
2.3.1
Logistic regression
.................. 35
2.3.2
The land use change model
—
Land Use Scanner
. . 41
2.3.3
Variables and data sources
.............. 42
2.3.4
Scenario description
................. 45
2.3.5
Adaptation of regression results to the scenarios studied
46
2.4
Results
............................. 46
2.4.1
Location preferences for residential developments
. 46
2.4.2
Simulation of residential development
........ 50
2.5
Discussion and conclusion
.................. 54
The development of built-up areas in Germany
—
The appropri¬
ateness of statistical analysis to project future developments
59
3.1
Introduction
.......................... 59
3.2
Methods and Data
....................... 63
3.2.1
Conceptual approach
................. 63
3.2.2
Data
.......................... 67
3.3
Results
............................. 68
3.3.1
Results of exploratory data analysis
......... 68
3.3.2
Regression analysis
.................. 69
3.3.2.1
Estimating the built-up area for
1996 ... 69
3.3.2.2
Estimating the ratio of built-up area to total
area of the administrative unit for
1996 . . 74
3.3.2.3
Estimating the annual relative change of built-
up area between
1996
and
2004 ...... 76
xvi
CONTENTS
3.3.3
Comparison of results
................ 81
3.3.4
Analysis of outliers
.................. 81
3.3.5
Projection of built-up area for the year
2020..... 82
3.4
Discussion and outlook
.................... 84
4
Quantifying demand for settlement area
—
A comparison of ap¬
proaches and application to regions with stagnating population
87
4.1
Introduction
.......................... 87
4.2
Study Area
.......................... 89
4.3
Quantifying the demand for settlement area
......... 92
4.3.1
Trend extrapolation
.................. 92
4.3.2
Regression analysis
.................. 92
4.3.3
Density measure
................... 93
4.3.4
Applicability of the approaches in study areas with
structural changes
................... 94
4.4
Methods and Data
....................... 94
4.4.1
Calculating demand for settlement area
....... 94
4.4.1.1
Trend extrapolation
............ 95
4.4.1.2
Linear regression analysis
......... 95
4.4.1.3
Density measure
.............. 96
4.4.2
Accuracy assessment and comparison of results
... 97
4.4.3
Data
.......................... 98
4.4.3.1
Data sources
................ 98
4.4.3.2
Spatial scale
................ 98
4.4.3.3
Variables
.................. 99
4.5
Results
............................. 101
4.5.1
Trend extrapolation
.................. 101
4.5.2
Linear regression analysis
.............. 103
4.5.3
Density measure
................... 107
4.5.4
Comparison of results
................ 109
4.6
Discussion and outlook
.................... 112
5
Accelerating urban sprawl in depopulating regions
—
A scenario
analysis for the Elbe River Basin
115
5.1
Introduction
.......................... 115
5.1.1
Suburbanisation
and depopulation in the Elbe River
Basin
......................... 116
5.1.2
Residential land use demand in land use change models
117
xvii
CONTENTS
5.2
Methods and Data
....................... 121
5.2.1
Demand for residential area
............. 121
5.2.1.1
Input data
................. 121
5.2.1.2
Demand calculation based on input data
. 124
5.2.2
The land use change model
—
Land Use Scanner
. . 126
5.2.3
Scenario description
................. 127
5.2.3.1
Globalisation with current land use policy
127
5.2.3.2
Globalisation with effective land use policy
127
5.2.3.3
Differentiation with current land use policy
128
5.2.3.4
Differentiation with effective land use policy
128
5.3
Results
............................. 128
5.3.1
Residential land use demand
............. 128
5.3.2
Simulation of residential development
........ 130
5.4
Discussion
........................... 135
6
Conclusion
141
6.1
Summary of the results
.................... 141
6.2
Answering the research questions
.............. 145
6.2.1
Main research questions
............... 145
6.2.2
Progress towards the methodological research deficit
148
6.3
Outlook
............................ 152
6.3.1
Outlook for methods and data
............ 152
6.3.2
Possible application of residential land use change
studies
........................ 153
References
174
XVIII
|
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| geographic_facet | Elbe-Gebiet |
| id | DE-604.BV037185886 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T14:46:11Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783798322769 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-021100406 |
| oclc_num | 734049934 |
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| owner | DE-83 DE-634 DE-12 DE-29 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM |
| owner_facet | DE-83 DE-634 DE-12 DE-29 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM |
| physical | XXII, 174 S. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publishDateSearch | 2010 |
| publishDateSort | 2010 |
| publisher | Univ.-Verl. der TU Berlin |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Global change of the water cycle |
| spellingShingle | Hoymann, Jana Modelling future residential development a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin Siedlungsgang (DE-588)4116495-7 gnd Landnutzung (DE-588)4259046-2 gnd Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd Verkehrsfläche (DE-588)4187808-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4116495-7 (DE-588)4259046-2 (DE-588)4326464-5 (DE-588)4187808-5 (DE-588)4234659-9 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Modelling future residential development a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin |
| title_auth | Modelling future residential development a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin |
| title_exact_search | Modelling future residential development a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin |
| title_full | Modelling future residential development a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin Jana Hoymann |
| title_fullStr | Modelling future residential development a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin Jana Hoymann |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling future residential development a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin Jana Hoymann |
| title_short | Modelling future residential development |
| title_sort | modelling future residential development a scenario analysis for the elbe river basin |
| title_sub | a scenario analysis for the Elbe River Basin |
| topic | Siedlungsgang (DE-588)4116495-7 gnd Landnutzung (DE-588)4259046-2 gnd Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd Verkehrsfläche (DE-588)4187808-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Siedlungsgang Landnutzung Nachhaltigkeit Verkehrsfläche Elbe-Gebiet Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=021100406&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hoymannjana modellingfutureresidentialdevelopmentascenarioanalysisfortheelberiverbasin |
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