Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions?: new evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB
Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real t...
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| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
München
CESifo
2009
|
| Series: | CESifo working paper
2760 : Category 7, Monetary policy and international finance |
| Subjects: | |
| Summary: | Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real time expected inflation and output are used. We use five indicators of ECB communication that are all based on the ECB President's introductory statement at the press conference following an ECB policy meeting. Our results suggest that even though the indicators are sometimes quite different from one another, they add information that helps predict the next policy decision of the ECB. Furthermore, also when the interbank rate is included in our Taylor rule model, the ECB communication indicators remain significant. -- ECB ; central bank ; communication ; Taylor rule |
| Physical Description: | 24 S. graph. Darst. |
Staff View
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| id | DE-604.BV035816274 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T14:00:51Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-018675111 |
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| physical | 24 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
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| publisher | CESifo |
| record_format | marc |
| series | CESifo working paper |
| series2 | CESifo working paper |
| spelling | Sturm, Jan-Egbert 1969- Verfasser (DE-588)122159551 aut Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? new evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB Jan-Egbert Sturm ; Jakob de Haan München CESifo 2009 24 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier CESifo working paper 2760 : Category 7, Monetary policy and international finance Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real time expected inflation and output are used. We use five indicators of ECB communication that are all based on the ECB President's introductory statement at the press conference following an ECB policy meeting. Our results suggest that even though the indicators are sometimes quite different from one another, they add information that helps predict the next policy decision of the ECB. Furthermore, also when the interbank rate is included in our Taylor rule model, the ECB communication indicators remain significant. -- ECB ; central bank ; communication ; Taylor rule Europäische Zentralbank (DE-588)5287962-8 gnd rswk-swf Taylor-Formel (DE-588)4184549-3 gnd rswk-swf Währungspolitik (DE-588)4064152-1 gnd rswk-swf Politische Kommunikation (DE-588)4134262-8 gnd rswk-swf Europäische Zentralbank (DE-588)5287962-8 b Währungspolitik (DE-588)4064152-1 s Politische Kommunikation (DE-588)4134262-8 s Taylor-Formel (DE-588)4184549-3 s DE-604 Haan, Jakob de 1960- Verfasser (DE-588)130624608 aut CESifo working paper 2760 : Category 7, Monetary policy and international finance (DE-604)BV013978326 2760 |
| spellingShingle | Sturm, Jan-Egbert 1969- Haan, Jakob de 1960- Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? new evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB CESifo working paper Europäische Zentralbank (DE-588)5287962-8 gnd Taylor-Formel (DE-588)4184549-3 gnd Währungspolitik (DE-588)4064152-1 gnd Politische Kommunikation (DE-588)4134262-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)5287962-8 (DE-588)4184549-3 (DE-588)4064152-1 (DE-588)4134262-8 |
| title | Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? new evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB |
| title_auth | Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? new evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB |
| title_exact_search | Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? new evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB |
| title_full | Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? new evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB Jan-Egbert Sturm ; Jakob de Haan |
| title_fullStr | Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? new evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB Jan-Egbert Sturm ; Jakob de Haan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? new evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB Jan-Egbert Sturm ; Jakob de Haan |
| title_short | Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? |
| title_sort | does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions new evidence based on a taylor rule model for the ecb |
| title_sub | new evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB |
| topic | Europäische Zentralbank (DE-588)5287962-8 gnd Taylor-Formel (DE-588)4184549-3 gnd Währungspolitik (DE-588)4064152-1 gnd Politische Kommunikation (DE-588)4134262-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Europäische Zentralbank Taylor-Formel Währungspolitik Politische Kommunikation |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV013978326 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sturmjanegbert doescentralbankcommunicationreallyleadtobetterforecastsofpolicydecisionsnewevidencebasedonataylorrulemodelfortheecb AT haanjakobde doescentralbankcommunicationreallyleadtobetterforecastsofpolicydecisionsnewevidencebasedonataylorrulemodelfortheecb |