Population ageing, pensions and growth: intertemporal trade-offs and consumption planning
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cheltenham
Elgar
2009
|
| Subjects: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017625479&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references (p. 273-288) and index |
| Physical Description: | XV, 299 S. graph. Darst. 24 cm |
| ISBN: | 9781848445314 |
Staff View
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Population ageing, pensions and growth |b intertemporal trade-offs and consumption planning |c John Creedy ; Ross Guest |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Pensions | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Expenditures, Public | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Social policy | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Older people / Government policy / Economic aspects | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Pensions | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Expenditures, Public | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Social policy | |
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1819367189613903872 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Population ageing, pensions and growth
Autor: Creedy, John
Jahr: 2009
Contents
List of Tables x
List of Figures xii
Acknowledgements xv
I Introduction
1 Introduction 1
II Discounting and Time Preference
2 Discounting and Time Preference 11
2.1 Social Evaluations 13
2.1.1 A Social Welfare Function 14
2.1.2 Comparing Alternative Time Streams 17
2.2 Existence of Time Preference 20
2.2.1 An Axiomatic Approach 21
2.2.2 A Measure of Pure Time Preference 23
2.3 Choice of Optimal Time Stream 26
2.4 The Social Time Preference Rate 28
2.5 Time Varying Discount Rates 30
2.5.1 An Alternative Welfare Function 30
2.5.2 Uncertainty 34
2.6 The Choice of Unit of Analysis 35
2.7 Measurement Attempts 37
2.7.1 Taxation and Equal Absolute Sacrifice 39
2.8 Interpreting Orders of Magnitude 43
2.9 Conclusions 44
3 The Elasticity of Marginal Valuation 47
3.1 Social Evaluations: A Single Period 49
3.1.1 The Welfare Function 50
CONTENTS
3.1.2 The Elasticity of Marginal Valuation 52
3.1.3 Choice of Values 52
3.2 Multi-Period Contexts 54
3.2.1 A Single Individual 55
3.2.2 Social Evaluations 58
3.3 Taxation and Equal Absolute Sacrifice 59
3.4 Interpreting Orders of Magnitude 64
3.5 Conclusions 65
Sustainable Preferences 67
4.1 The Concept of Sustainability 68
4.2 A Standard Welfare Function and Time Preference 70
4.3 Sustainable Preferences 73
4.3.1 A Chichilnisky Social Welfare Function 73
4.3.2 A Modified Li and Lofgren Social Welfare Function 75
4.4 Logistic Preferences 76
4.5 Economy with Damage and Abatement Functions 78
4.5.1 Structure of the Model 78
4.5.2 The Euler Equation 81
4.5.3 A Solution Procedure 84
4.6 Implications of Alternative Value Judgements 84
4.6.1 Calibration of the Model 85
4.6.2 Numerical Results 86
4.7 Conclusions 91
Representative Agent and Social Planner 93
5.1 The Basic Framework 96
5.2 The Representative Agent 97
5.3 The Social Planner 99
5.3.1 The Social Welfare Function 99
5.3.2 Consumption per Adult Equivalent 100
5.4 Alternative Consumption Units 102
5.4.1 Individuals as Units of Analysis 104
5.4.2 Equivalent Persons as Units 106
5.5 Some Comparisons 107
5.6 Numerical Examples 108
5.6.1 Population Projections 109
5.6.2 Optimal Consumption Paths 111
5.7 Conclusions 115
CONTENTS vii
III Pensions and Taxation
6 Pension Tax, Savings and Labour Supply 121
6.1 The Lifetime Model 123
6.1.1 The Lifetime Budget Constraint 123
6.1.2 Utility Maximisation 126
6.2 A Policy Change 127
6.2.1 Effects of Unanticipated Tax Changes 128
6.2.2 The Government s Budget Constraint 129
6.3 Some Numerical Examples 131
6.3.1 Complete Life-Cycle Plans 132
6.3.2 Unanticipated Changes 136
6.4 Conclusions 139
7 Private Pensions and Savings 141
7.1 The Model 144
7.1.1 Firms 144
7.1.2 Households Optimisation Problem 145
7.1.3 The Effective Price of Leisure 147
7.1.4 Optimal Plans of Households 149
7.1.5 Government 151
7.1.6 Value Judgements 153
7.2 Calibration of the Model 154
7.3 Simulation Results 158
7.3.1 Consumption 158
7.3.2 Labour Supply 161
7.3.3 National Savings 162
7.3.4 Social Welfare 164
7.3.5 Higher Superannuation Contribution Rates 165
7.4 Conclusion 167
Appendix: Equivalence of TTT, TTE and ETT 169
IV Population Ageing
8 Tax Smoothing and Population Ageing 173
8.1 Effects of Tax Smoothing 175
8.1.1 Intergenerational Equity: An Illustrative Model 176
8.2 The Simulation Model 182
8.2.1 Firms 182
8.2.2 Households 184
8.2.3 Government 188
viii CONTENTS
8.3 Value Judgements 189
8.4 Empirical Application 191
8.4.1 Data and Parameters 191
8.4.2 Simulations and Eesults 192
8.4.3 Sensitivity 198
8.5 Conclusion 199
9 Demographic Change in OECD Countries 203
9.1 The Demographic Transition and Prosperity 204
9.2 Demographic Change and Living Standards 205
9.2.1 Demographic Change and the Support Ratio 207
9.2.2 Ageing and Average Labour Productivity 209
9.2.3 Ageing and Saving per Worker 212
9.3 Calculations for OECD Countries 214
9.3.1 The Open Economy Solow Dividend 218
9.3.2 The Saving Dividend 220
9.3.3 The Imperfect Labour Substitutability Dividend 222
9.4 Conclusion 224
10 Capital Intensity and Productivity 227
10.1 Capital Intensity and Expenditure 229
10.2 The Simulation Model 236
10.2.1 Firms 236
10.2.2 Consumers 238
10.2.3 Living Standards 241
10.3 Calibration and Solution Method 242
10.3.1 Allocating Labour Between the Two Goods 242
10.3.2 Age-dependent Preferences for the Two Goods 243
10.3.3 Other Parameter Values 243
10.3.4 Demographic Projections 244
10.3.5 The Solution Method 245
10.4 Simulation Results 246
10.4.1 Sensitivity 251
10.5 Conclusion 253
11 Extensions and Sensitivity Analyses 255
11.1 Two Effects of Ageing on Labour Productivity 255
11.1.1 Imperfect Substitutability of Workers by Age 256
11.1.2 Applying the CRESH Function 258
11.1.3 Sectors with Different Capital Intensities 261
11.2 Ageing and Consumption Bundles 262
11.3 Imperfect Capital Mobility 263
11.4 Demographic Projections 264
CONTENTS ix
11.5 Simulations and Results 266
11.6 Conclusion 270
Bibliography 273
Index 289
List of Tables
4.1 Benchmark Parameter Values 85
6.1 Income Flows 124
7.1 Base Case Parameters and Initial Values 157
7.2 Effect on Social Welfare, V 165
8.1 Base Case Parameters and Initial Values 191
8.2 Social Welfare Gains from Tax Smoothing in Units of
Equivalent GDP per year 197
8.3 Percentage Effect of Partial Tax Smoothing on Lifetime Utility
of Generation Measured in Equivalised Annual Values 199
9.1 Projected Employment to Population Ratios: Alternative
Measures 215
9.2 Percentage Change in Labour Force Ratios: 2006 to 2050 217
9.3 Percentage Effects of Potential Dividends From Population-
Ageing: 2006 to 2050 219
9.4 Values of Parameters, at 223
10.1 Consumer Expenditure Shares for the U.S. from 2004 Survey 231
10.2 Consumer Expenditure Shares for Australia from 2004 Survey 232
10.3 Capital-Output Ratios, KIX, for the US Private Sector in 2005 233
10.4 Capital-Output Ratios, KIX, for the Australian Private Sector
in 2004 234
10.5 Input—Output Parameters and KlX Ratios 234
11.1 Parameters Used in Applying the CRESH Function 260
11.2 Capital-Output Ratios for Australia in 2002 261
11.3 Possible Scenarios Determining the Effect of Population
Ageing on Average Capital Intensity 266
LIST OF TABLES xi
11.4 Effects and Labour Productivity: Percentage Change Relative
to No Demographic Change 267
11.5 Ageing and Living Standards: Percentage Change Relative to
No Demographic Change 267
11.6 Percentage Change in Consumption per Person Relative to No
Demographic Change 267
List of Figures
2.1 The Discount Factor and Time Period 15
2.2 Sensitivity of W (C) to Choice of Epsilon (Less Than 1) 15
2.3 Sensitivity of W (Q to Choice of Epsilon (Greater Than 1) 16
2.4 Two Consumption Profiles With One Intersection 18
2.5 Present Value, W (C), of Consumption Profiles for e = 0.6 and
Alternative p 19
2.6 Two Consumption Profiles With Two Intersections 19
2.7 Present Value, W (Q, of Consumption Profiles for e = 0.2 and
Alternative p 20
2.8 Social Indifference Curves and Time Preference 25
3.1 Time Preference 56
3.2 Marginal and Average Tax Rates: Equal Absolute Sacrifice 63
4.1 Hyperbolic and Logistic Time Preference Rate Functions 77
4.2 Alternative Discount Factors 78
4.3 Damages as Percentage of GDP 86
4.4 Consumption with Alternative Welfare Functions: Damages
with Zero Abatement 87
4.5 Consumption with Damage Abatement Policy: Constant
Discount Rate 87
4.6 Consumption with Damage Abatement: Sustainable Preferences 88
5.1 Consumption Weights, Sj, by Age 110
5.2 Series Forp- n 111
5.3 Optimal Consumption Growth for Social Planner: Individuals
as Unit of Analysis 113
5.4 Optimal Consumption Growth For Social Planner: Equivalent
Persons as Unit of Analysis 114
5.5 Difference Between Optimal Consumption Paths 115
Xll
LIST OF FIGURES xiii
5.6 Percentage Difference in Consumption Levels for Given Present
Value of Consumption Over the Period 116
6.1 Private Savings 133
6.2 Labour Supply 134
6.3 The Price of Leisure 135
6.4 Labour Supply Following Change to TTE 137
6.5 The Price of Leisure Following Change to TTE 138
6.6 Private Savings Following Move to TTE 138
7.1 Percentage Change in Lifetime Consumption by Generation 159
7.2 Percentage Boost to Living Standards 161
7.3 Percentage Change in Aggregate Labour Supply 162
7.4 The National Saving Eate as Proportion of GDP 164
7.5 Percentage Change in Lifetime Consumption by Generation 166
8.1 The Young Worker 179
8.2 The Middle-Aged Worker 179
8.3 The Retired Worker 180
8.4 The Future Worker 180
8.5 Household Post-Tax Labour Income and Consumption:
Balanced Budget Case 187
8.6 Fiscal Pressure From Population Ageing: Projected Path of Tax
to GDP Ratio 189
8.7 Net Government Assets as Proportion of GDP 194
8.8 Percentage Change in Labour Supply From Tax Smoothing 195
8.9 Percentage Change in Equivalent Annual Income from Tax
Smoothing for Representative Household Born in Year Indicated 195
9.1 Age-Specific Productivity Weights 216
9.2 Wealth of Representative Worker over Life Cycle 221
10.1 Effect of Population Ageing on Long Run Output and
Consumption Ratios 235
10.2 Support Ratios for the US and Australia 245
10.3 Index of Consumer Preferences Parameter, fi( 247
10.4 US Labour Productivity 247
10.5 Australian Labour Productivity 248
10.6 Decomposition of Effect of Ageing on Living Standards in the
US from 2005 to 2050 249
10.7 Decomposition of Effect of Ageing on Living Standards in
Australia from 2005 to 2050 249
xiv LIST OF FIGURES
11.1 Age Distribution of the Labour Force 258
|
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV035569875 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T13:38:03Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781848445314 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-017625479 |
| oclc_num | 636287136 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-945 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-945 DE-188 |
| physical | XV, 299 S. graph. Darst. 24 cm |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | Elgar |
| record_format | marc |
| spellingShingle | Creedy, John 1949- Guest, Ross Population ageing, pensions and growth intertemporal trade-offs and consumption planning Age distribution (Demography) / Economic aspects Older people / Government policy / Economic aspects Pensions Expenditures, Public Social policy Economic development Alternde Bevölkerung stw Alterssicherung stw Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsum stw Steuer stw Zeitpräferenz stw Politik Wirtschaftsentwicklung Sozialstaat (DE-588)4055896-4 gnd Generationengerechtigkeit (DE-588)7559164-9 gnd Zeitpräferenz (DE-588)4190616-0 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Altersversorgung (DE-588)4001479-4 gnd Wohlfahrtsfunktion (DE-588)4190150-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4055896-4 (DE-588)7559164-9 (DE-588)4190616-0 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4001479-4 (DE-588)4190150-2 |
| title | Population ageing, pensions and growth intertemporal trade-offs and consumption planning |
| title_auth | Population ageing, pensions and growth intertemporal trade-offs and consumption planning |
| title_exact_search | Population ageing, pensions and growth intertemporal trade-offs and consumption planning |
| title_full | Population ageing, pensions and growth intertemporal trade-offs and consumption planning John Creedy ; Ross Guest |
| title_fullStr | Population ageing, pensions and growth intertemporal trade-offs and consumption planning John Creedy ; Ross Guest |
| title_full_unstemmed | Population ageing, pensions and growth intertemporal trade-offs and consumption planning John Creedy ; Ross Guest |
| title_short | Population ageing, pensions and growth |
| title_sort | population ageing pensions and growth intertemporal trade offs and consumption planning |
| title_sub | intertemporal trade-offs and consumption planning |
| topic | Age distribution (Demography) / Economic aspects Older people / Government policy / Economic aspects Pensions Expenditures, Public Social policy Economic development Alternde Bevölkerung stw Alterssicherung stw Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsum stw Steuer stw Zeitpräferenz stw Politik Wirtschaftsentwicklung Sozialstaat (DE-588)4055896-4 gnd Generationengerechtigkeit (DE-588)7559164-9 gnd Zeitpräferenz (DE-588)4190616-0 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Altersversorgung (DE-588)4001479-4 gnd Wohlfahrtsfunktion (DE-588)4190150-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Age distribution (Demography) / Economic aspects Older people / Government policy / Economic aspects Pensions Expenditures, Public Social policy Economic development Alternde Bevölkerung Alterssicherung Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsum Steuer Zeitpräferenz Politik Wirtschaftsentwicklung Sozialstaat Generationengerechtigkeit Bevölkerungsentwicklung Altersversorgung Wohlfahrtsfunktion |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017625479&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT creedyjohn populationageingpensionsandgrowthintertemporaltradeoffsandconsumptionplanning AT guestross populationageingpensionsandgrowthintertemporaltradeoffsandconsumptionplanning |