Availability: Strategic foresight | Technische Universität München

Strategic foresight: Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Müller, Adrian W. 1976- (Author), Müller-Stewens, Günter 1951- (Author)
Format:	Book
Language:	German
Published:	Stuttgart Schäffer-Poeschel 2009
Subjects:	Organisatorischer Wandel Strategische Unternehmensplanung Strategisches Management - Unternehmensplanung - Zukunftsplanung Theorie Zukunftsforschung Unternehmensplanung Strategische Frühaufklärung Trendforschung Unternehmen Zukunftsplanung Prozessmanagement Strategisches Management
Links:	http://deposit.dnb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=3194313&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017127041&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
Physical Description:	XV, 255 S. graph. Darst. 240 mm x 170 mm
ISBN:	9783791028682

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Record in the Search Index

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adam_text	Titel: Strategic foresight Autor: Marcus, Alfred Jahr: 2009 Contents List of Figures and Tables xi Acknowledgments xiii Introduction 1 Turbulent Times 2 What Is Foresight? 4 The Role of Scenarios—Generating and Testing Strategies 5 Thinking about What Comes Next 6 1 Meeting the Challenges of the Future 9 Weaknesses in Scenario Development 9 Involving Every Person 10 Imagining Sequences of Events 13 Hedging against Uncertainties 14 Gamble on the Most Probable Outcome 14 Take the Robust Route 16 Delay until Further Clarity Emerges 16 Commit with Fallbacks 18 Shape the Future 19 Risk and Uncertainty 21 Looking at Scenarios in a New Way 22 A Tool for Meeting Challenges 24 Boxed Insert: How the Future Affects Commitments Businesses Make Today? 11 2 Thinking about the Future 27 Rules for Creating Scenarios 28 Start with the Past 28 viii • Contents Move to the Future 29 Rely on Master Narratives 30 Romances 30 Tragedies 31 Comedies 32 Understand the Journey 34 Clarify the Uncertainties 39 Use Diverse Stories for Decision Making 41 Engage Employees 43 3 The Challenges Businesses Face 47 What Are the Challenges? 48 How Attractive Are the Options? 52 Repositioning 52 Restructuring 52 Globalization 53 Innovation 53 Does the Organization Have Needed Capabilities? 59 Does the Organization Have Stories about What Might Happen? 60 Can the Organization Identify and Prepare for Surprises? 62 Looking Systematically at the Future 62 4 Population and Security Challenges 65 Looking for Sweet Spots 66 Finding Patterns 66 Finding Drivers 68 Attaching Vivid Names 70 Young and Educated 70 Relative Certainties and Uncertainties 73 Shell s Three Scenarios 73 Weak Signals and Wildcards 76 Irresolution 78 Motors of Change 79 No Regrets Strategy—Wal-Mart 79 Old and Feeble 80 Moving and Seeking 82 Young and Militant 82 Understanding Youth Violence 84 Historical Analogies 85 Indicators 87 Contents • ix Empirical Evidence 88 Theory 88 What Businesses Can Do? 92 Tools for Creating Scenarios 93 Boxed Insert: Growth of the Elderly in the World 81 Boxed Insert: Wal-Mart and Best Buy—A Comparison 83 Political and Economic Challenges 95 Reasons to Create Alternative Stories 97 To Understand the Impacts on Industry Structure 97 To Examine the Potential Outcomes of the Moves a Company Can Make 98 From Society to Government 101 The Centrality of Government 104 Government Scenarios 106 Free to Choose 106 Well-Regulated 108 Special Interests 109 Telecoms—An Example of Special Interests 109 Macroeconomic Scenarios 113 Turmoil and Instability (1930-1955) 114 Progress and Crisis (1956-1980) 115 Stable but Slower Growth (1981-2006) 117 Intersecting Stories 119 The Train Wreck 121 Boxed Insert: Strategic Change at Amazon 100 Boxed Insert: Monsanto s Quest HI Boxed Insert: In and Out of Tune with the Business Cycle 123 Energy and Environmental Challenges 127 An End to the Great Smoothing? 128 Energy Prices 128 Fuel Mix 130 Energy Politics 131 The Drivers of Change 133 Demand for and Supply of Energy 133 War and Global Politics 137 Climate Change 141 Boxed Insert: Overcoming Institutional Constraints in Minnesota 131 x • Contents Boxed Insert: Hope or Hype at General Motors 138 Boxed Insert: U.S. Carbon Emissions 144 Afterword Technology to the Rescue? 149 {with Massoud Amiri) Key Differentiators 153 The New Genetics 154 Information Technology 155 Materials Advances 156 Energetics 156 Biomedical Engineering 156 Nanotechnology 157 Empowered by People 157 The Energy Gap 160 The Problem for Companies 161 Innovation versus Management 163 Systems Theory 165 Appendix A: Intersecting Stories of the Future 169 Appendix B: Social, Political, and Economic Indicators: Web Resources 173 Appendix C: Additional Technological Opportunities 175 Notes 179 Further Reading 195 Index 199 Figures and Tables Figures 3.1 The five-force plus model 50 3.2 The difference between past trends and future developments 51 Tables 1.1 Hedging strategies 15 2.1 Master narratives 31 2.2 Diverse pasts and futures 35 3.1 Macroenvironmental impacts 55 3.2 Six potential futures 57 3.3 Acting on the opportunities and threats 63 4.1 Cross-impact analysis of a key driver 68 4.2 Relative certainties and uncertainties 74 4.3 Declining fertility rates in Middle East nations 89 5.1 Industry structure and alternative futures 96 5.2 Testing options against future conditions 99 5.3 Three patterns of past economic activity 113 6.1 The full model 129 6.2 A return to misery? 130 A.I Option identification 150 A.2 Option feasibility 150 A.3 Three roles for scenarios 153 A.4 Managing the tensions 163 A.5 System-level propositions 166
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spellingShingle	Müller, Adrian W. 1976- Müller-Stewens, Günter 1951- Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien Organisatorischer Wandel stw Strategische Unternehmensplanung stw Strategisches Management - Unternehmensplanung - Zukunftsplanung Theorie stw Zukunftsforschung stw Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 gnd Strategische Frühaufklärung (DE-588)4281858-8 gnd Trendforschung (DE-588)4316413-4 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Zukunftsplanung (DE-588)4132877-2 gnd Prozessmanagement (DE-588)4353072-2 gnd Strategisches Management (DE-588)4124261-0 gnd
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title	Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien
title_auth	Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien
title_exact_search	Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien
title_full	Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien Adrian W. Müller ; Günter Müller-Stewens
title_fullStr	Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien Adrian W. Müller ; Günter Müller-Stewens
title_full_unstemmed	Strategic foresight Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien Adrian W. Müller ; Günter Müller-Stewens
title_short	Strategic foresight
title_sort	strategic foresight trend und zukunftsforschung in unternehmen instrumente prozesse fallstudien
title_sub	Trend- und Zukunftsforschung in Unternehmen ; Instrumente, Prozesse, Fallstudien
topic	Organisatorischer Wandel stw Strategische Unternehmensplanung stw Strategisches Management - Unternehmensplanung - Zukunftsplanung Theorie stw Zukunftsforschung stw Unternehmensplanung (DE-588)4078609-2 gnd Strategische Frühaufklärung (DE-588)4281858-8 gnd Trendforschung (DE-588)4316413-4 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Zukunftsplanung (DE-588)4132877-2 gnd Prozessmanagement (DE-588)4353072-2 gnd Strategisches Management (DE-588)4124261-0 gnd
topic_facet	Organisatorischer Wandel Strategische Unternehmensplanung Strategisches Management - Unternehmensplanung - Zukunftsplanung Theorie Zukunftsforschung Unternehmensplanung Strategische Frühaufklärung Trendforschung Unternehmen Zukunftsplanung Prozessmanagement Strategisches Management
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work_keys_str_mv	AT mulleradrianw strategicforesighttrendundzukunftsforschunginunternehmeninstrumenteprozessefallstudien AT mullerstewensgunter strategicforesighttrendundzukunftsforschunginunternehmeninstrumenteprozessefallstudien

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