Durability of output and expected stock returns:

The demand for durable goods is more cyclical than that for nondurable goods and services. Consequently, the cash flow and stock returns of durable-good producers are exposed to higher systematic risk. Using the NIPA input-output tables, we construct portfolios of durable-good, nondurable-good, and...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Gomes, João (Author), Kogan, Leonid 1974- (Author), Yogo, Motohiro (Author)
Format: Book
Language:English
Published: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2007
Series:Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research 12986
Links:http://papers.nber.org/papers/w12986.pdf
Summary:The demand for durable goods is more cyclical than that for nondurable goods and services. Consequently, the cash flow and stock returns of durable-good producers are exposed to higher systematic risk. Using the NIPA input-output tables, we construct portfolios of durable-good, nondurable-good, and service producers. In the cross-section, a strategy that is long on durables and short on services earns a sizable risk premium. In the time series, a strategy that is long on durables and short on the market portfolio earns a countercyclical risk premium. We develop an equilibrium asset-pricing model that explains these empirical findings.
Physical Description:61 S. graph. Darst. 22 cm