Climate change and economic development: SEA regional modelling and analysis
Gespeichert in:
| Beteiligte Personen: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Basingstoke [u.a.]
Palgrave Macmillan
2007
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016141113&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Abstract: | The impacts of climate change on economic development have the potential to be unevenly distributed around the globe. This book focuses on South East Asia with respect to the economics of climate change and the relationship between climate change and economic development. |
| Beschreibung: | Incl. bibliogr. references and index |
| Umfang: | XXIV, 188 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780230542792 0230542794 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Climate change and economic development |b SEA regional modelling and analysis |c Jamie Sanderson and Sardar M.N. Islam |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
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| 500 | |a Incl. bibliogr. references and index | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a The impacts of climate change on economic development have the potential to be unevenly distributed around the globe. This book focuses on South East Asia with respect to the economics of climate change and the relationship between climate change and economic development. | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Climatic changes / Economic aspects / Southeast Asia | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1819297276752822272 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Tables xiii
List of Figures xv
Acknowledgement and Sources of Some Materials xvii
Summary and Preface xix
Foreword xxi
List of Abbreviations xxiii
Chapter 1 Introduction: Issues and Developments in
Climate Change 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 A brief review of the science and history of climate
change 2
1.2.1 The discovery of the greenhouse 2
1.2.2 The international response to climate change 3
1.2.3 The outcome from Kyoto 6
1.3 The economics of climate change 10
1.3.1 Problems presented by climate change for
economics 11
1.4 Climate change policy options: mitigation and
adaptation 12
1.4.1 Mitigation and adaptation: definitions and
contrasts 12
1.4.2 Reasons for the relative paucity of climate change
adaptation research 13
1.5 Objectives of this book 15
1.6 Contributions of this book 16
1.7 The structure of this book 17
Chapter 2 Issues in Climate Change for South East Asia 21
2.1 Introduction 21
2.2 South East Asia 22
2.2.1 Recent economic and social development in
South East Asia 23
2.2.2 Recent economic reform and growth 25
vii
viii Contents
2.2.3 The environment as an issue in South East Asia 26
2.2.3.1 South East Asia s activities in international
environmental law 28
2.2.4 Climate change activities in South East Asia 29
2.3 Greenhouse gas emissions of South East Asia 36
2.3.1 The contribution of deforestation to climate
change 36
2.3.2 Energy use in South East Asia as a contributor to
climate change 37
2.3.3 Overall structure of emissions 37
2.3.4 South East Asia s place in the global greenhouse 38
2.3.5 Economic development and climate change
emissions 40
2.4 Conclusion 44
Chapter 3 Climate Change Impact Estimates for South
East Asia 47
3.1 Introduction 47
3.2 Aggregate climate change impact estimation methods
and results 47
3.2.1 The methodology 47
3.2.2 Other aggregate impact estimates 49
3.3 The likely impacts of climate change on South East
Asia 52
3.4 Sectoral climate change impact estimates for South
East Asia 54
3.4.1 Sea level rise 54
3.4.1.1 Sea level rise studies for South East Asia 55
3.4.1.2 An impact estimate for sea level rise for South
East Asia 56
3.4.2 Agriculture 57
3.4.2.1 An impact estimate for agriculture in South
East Asia 60
3.4.3 Impacts of climate change on health 60
3.4.4 Human settlements and ecosystems 61
3.4.4.1 Human settlement 61
3.4.4.2 Ecosystem loss 62
3.4.5 Vulnerability to natural disasters 63
3.4.6 Other vulnerable sectors 64
Contents ix
3.5 Overall economic impact of climate change on South
East Asia 65
3.5.1 Comparison with other results 65
3.6 Conclusion 66
Chapter 4 Model Forecasting the Future Scenarios
for Climate Change and Economic Growth for South
East Asia 67
4.1 Introduction 67
4.2 Integrated assessment models of climate change 67
4.2.1 Major modelling issues 70
4.2.1.1 Data limitations 70
4.2.1.2 Intertemporal issues 71
4.3 The choice of model 73
4.3.1 The difference between DICE and SEADICE 73
4.3.2 Arguments in favour of the DICE model 74
4.3.3 Arguments against the DICE model 75
4.3.4 The model solution process the choice between
GAMS and Excel 76
4.4 Model structure 77
4.4.1 Objective function 78
4.4.2 Constraints 79
4.4.3 Climate equations 80
4.5 Model results 86
4.5.1 SEADICE results for five model runs 86
4.5.1.1 Results for climate and environmental
variables 88
4.5.1.2 Results for the economic variables 91
4.6 Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios 97
4.7 Conclusion 99
Appendix 4.A SEADICE (South East Asia DICE) Model 100
Appendix 4.B SEADICE Results 104
Chapter 5 Theoretical Discussion of Adaptation to
Climate Change and Application To The Seadice Model 107
5.1 Introduction 107
5.2 General adaptation concepts 107
5.2.1 Scientific concepts of adaptation 108
5.2.2 Economic concepts of adaptation 109
x Contents
5.3 Adaptation concepts for climate change 110
5.3.1 Definitions of climate change adaptation 111
5.4 Autonomous and planned adaptation 112
5.4.1 Autonomous adaptation 113
5.4.1.1 The importance of autonomous adaptation
for base case estimates 113
5.4.1.2 Technology as a determinant of autonomous
adaptation 116
5.4.2 Planned adaptation 117
5.4.3 Summary definitions 119
5.5 Endogenous technical change: a representation of
autonomous adaptation 120
5.5.1 Theories of economic growth and the emergence
of endogenous technical progress 120
5.6 A review of the modelling of climate change
adaptation 123
5.6.1 Review of climate change models incorporating
adaptation 123
5.6.1.1 Modelling of adaptation in climate change
economics 124
5.7 An application to SEADICE 126
5.7.1 Application of endogenous technical progress to
the SEADICE model 127
5.8 Conclusion 129
Chapter 6 Mitigation Policy Options for South East Asia 131
6.1 Introduction 131
6.2 Policy options for greenhouse gas emission reductions
in South East Asia 131
6.2.1 Clean development mechanism 132
6.2.2 Emissions trading 134
6.2.3 Joint implementation 135
6.2.4 No regrets mitigation options for South East Asia 135
6.2.4.1 Mitigation policy options for land use in
South East Asia 136
6.2.4.2 Policy options for the energy sector 138
6.2.5 Carbon tax 139
6.3 Expected climate change mitigation actions for
South East Asia 140
Contents xi
6.4 Recommended mitigation actions for South East Asia 141
6.5 Conclusion 142
Chapter 7 Adaptation Policy Options for South
East Asia 143
7.1 Introduction 143
7.2 Definition of climate change adaptation policy 143
7.2.1 What is adaptation policy? 143
7.2.2 What is adaptation s status as an international
policy issue? 144
7.2.3 Reasons for the increasing importance of climate
change adaptation policy 145
7.2.4 Options for the identification of adaptation
policies 147
7.2.4.1 Generic procedures for adaptation policy
assessments 147
7.2.4.2 Results of adaptation policy identification 149
7.2.5 Difficulties of adaptation policy identification 149
7.3 Adaptation policy options for South East Asia 152
7.4 Conclusion 156
Chapter 8 Conclusion: Major Contributions and
Recommendations for Future Research 157
8.1 Introduction 157
8.2 Major contributions to the literature 157
8.3 Limitations of the book 160
8.4 Areas for further research 161
8.5 Conclusion 161
Notes 163
Bibliography 167
Index 187
List of Tables
1.1 Kyoto Protocol Emission Targets of Annex I Countries 7
2.1 Economic Growth for South East Asia 1978 97 23
2.2 Structural and Social Change in South East Asia 24
2.3 Protected Areas in South East Asia 27
2.4 Environmental Conventions to which South East
Asian Countries are Party 30
2.5 Change in Energy Consumption and Production for
Selected South East Asian Countries 37
2.6 Structure of Regional CO2 Emissions 38
3.1 Climate Change Impact Estimates for the United
States (1990 $US Billions) 51
3.2 Types of Impacts Resulting from Climate Change 53
3.3 Results from Impact Studies on Agriculture in
South East Asia 59
3.4 Effects of Climate Change on Health in South
East Asia 61
3.5 Total Impact of 2xCO2 Climate Change for South
East Asia (% of GDP) 65
4.1 Details of Model Runs 87
4.A.1 Major Variables of the DICE/SEADICE Model 102
4.A.2 Initial Parameter Values for the SEADICE Model 103
4.B.I SEADICE Climate Emissions Paths 104
4.B.2 SEADICE Economic Variable Paths 105
4.B.3 Different Scenarios Optimistic to Pessimistic 106
5.1 Scenarios for Estimating Adaptation Costs and
Benefits 114
5.2 General Characteristics of Climate Change
Adaptation 120
6.1 Sectors Where Dual Environmental Benefits are
Possible 136
7.1 Adaptation Assessment Methodologies 150
7.2 Typical Adaptation Policies 151
7.3 Multilateral Environmental Organisations in
South East Asia 154
xiii
List of Figures
2.1 Individual Countries Share of Total South East Asia
Carbon Dioxide Emissions 1996 39
2.2 South East Asia Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions 39
2.3 Annual Per Capita CO2 Emissions 1950 95 (tons) 40
2.4 Per Capita Emissions and Per Capita GDP Relationship
(South East Asia) 42
2.5 Per Capita Emissions and Per Capita GDP Relationship
(Developed Countries) 42
2.6 South East Asia Emissions Efficiency 43
2.7 Developed Countries Emissions Efficiency 44
4.1 South East Asia Climate Change Damage as a
% of GDP 88
4.2 Total South East Asia Carbon Dioxide Emissions 89
4.3 Global Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations 90
4.4 South East Asia Industrial Carbon Intensity
(metric tons per $US thousand) 91
4.5 South East Asia Industrial Carbon Dioxide Emissions
(Gt/C per year) 92
4.6 South East Asia GDP 92
4.7 South East Asia Capital Stock ($US trillion) 93
4.8 South East Asia Consumption ($US trillion per year) 93
4.9 South East Asia Investment ($US trillion) 94
4.10 South East Asia Saving Rate (%) 94
4.11 South East Asia Consumption Per Capita
($US thousand per year) 95
4.12 South East Asia Interest Rate (%) 95
4.13 South East Asia GDP Difference from Base Case (%) 96
4.14 South East Asia Investment Scenarios 97
4.15 South East Asia Consumption Scenarios 98
4.16 South East Asia GDP Scenarios 98
5.1 Costs of Climate Change Adaptation 115
5.2 Change in GDP at Different Levels of R D 128
XV
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| geographic_facet | Südostasien |
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| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T13:05:43Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780230542792 0230542794 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016141113 |
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| spellingShingle | Sanderson, Jamie Islam, Sardar M. N. 1950- Climate change and economic development SEA regional modelling and analysis Climatic changes / Economic aspects / Southeast Asia Klimaänderung Climatic changes Economic aspects Southeast Asia Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4164199-1 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4058448-3 |
| title | Climate change and economic development SEA regional modelling and analysis |
| title_auth | Climate change and economic development SEA regional modelling and analysis |
| title_exact_search | Climate change and economic development SEA regional modelling and analysis |
| title_full | Climate change and economic development SEA regional modelling and analysis Jamie Sanderson and Sardar M.N. Islam |
| title_fullStr | Climate change and economic development SEA regional modelling and analysis Jamie Sanderson and Sardar M.N. Islam |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change and economic development SEA regional modelling and analysis Jamie Sanderson and Sardar M.N. Islam |
| title_short | Climate change and economic development |
| title_sort | climate change and economic development sea regional modelling and analysis |
| title_sub | SEA regional modelling and analysis |
| topic | Climatic changes / Economic aspects / Southeast Asia Klimaänderung Climatic changes Economic aspects Southeast Asia Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Climatic changes / Economic aspects / Southeast Asia Klimaänderung Climatic changes Economic aspects Southeast Asia Wirtschaftsentwicklung Südostasien |
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