Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner?: simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China
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| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge, MA
National Bureau of Economic Research
2005
|
| Series: | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series
11668 |
| Subjects: | |
| Links: | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w11668.pdf |
| Abstract: | "This paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S., and the EU. Each of these countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging requiring major fiscal adjustments. In previous studies that excluded China we predicted that tax hikes needed to pay benefits along the developed world's demographic transition would lead to capital shortage, reducing real wages per unit of human capital. Adding China to the model dramatically alters this prediction. Even though China is aging rapidly, its saving behavior, growth rate, and fiscal policies are very different from those of developed countries. If this continues to be the case, the model's long run looks much brighter. China eventually becomes the world's saver and, thereby, the developed world's savoir with respect to its long-run supply of capital and long-run general equilibrium prospects. And, rather than seeing the real wage per unit of human capital fall, the West and Japan see it rise by one fifth by 2030 and by three fifths by 2100. These wage increases are over and above those associated with technical progress"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site. |
| Physical Description: | 69 S. |
Staff View
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| geographic | Europa USA China Economic conditions 2000- Europe Economic conditions 1945- Japan Economic conditions 1989- United States Economic conditions 2001-2009 |
| geographic_facet | Europa USA China Economic conditions 2000- Europe Economic conditions 1945- Japan Economic conditions 1989- United States Economic conditions 2001-2009 |
| id | DE-604.BV021444857 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T12:33:49Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
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| physical | 69 S. |
| publishDate | 2005 |
| publishDateSearch | 2005 |
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| publisher | National Bureau of Economic Research |
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| series | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| series2 | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series |
| spelling | Fehr, Hans 1962- Verfasser (DE-588)121351807 aut Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner? simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China Hans Fehr ; Sabine Jokisch ; Laurence J. Kotlikoff Cambridge, MA National Bureau of Economic Research 2005 69 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 11668 "This paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S., and the EU. Each of these countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging requiring major fiscal adjustments. In previous studies that excluded China we predicted that tax hikes needed to pay benefits along the developed world's demographic transition would lead to capital shortage, reducing real wages per unit of human capital. Adding China to the model dramatically alters this prediction. Even though China is aging rapidly, its saving behavior, growth rate, and fiscal policies are very different from those of developed countries. If this continues to be the case, the model's long run looks much brighter. China eventually becomes the world's saver and, thereby, the developed world's savoir with respect to its long-run supply of capital and long-run general equilibrium prospects. And, rather than seeing the real wage per unit of human capital fall, the West and Japan see it rise by one fifth by 2030 and by three fifths by 2100. These wage increases are over and above those associated with technical progress"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site. Wirtschaft Wirtschaft. Geschichte Economic history 21st century Europa USA China Economic conditions 2000- Europe Economic conditions 1945- Japan Economic conditions 1989- United States Economic conditions 2001-2009 Jokisch, Sabine 1977- Verfasser (DE-588)128844949 aut Kotlikoff, Laurence J. 1951- Verfasser (DE-588)128845007 aut Erscheint auch als Internetausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 11668 (DE-604)BV002801238 11668 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w11668.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Fehr, Hans 1962- Jokisch, Sabine 1977- Kotlikoff, Laurence J. 1951- Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner? simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series Wirtschaft Wirtschaft. Geschichte Economic history 21st century |
| title | Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner? simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China |
| title_auth | Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner? simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China |
| title_exact_search | Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner? simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China |
| title_full | Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner? simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China Hans Fehr ; Sabine Jokisch ; Laurence J. Kotlikoff |
| title_fullStr | Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner? simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China Hans Fehr ; Sabine Jokisch ; Laurence J. Kotlikoff |
| title_full_unstemmed | Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner? simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China Hans Fehr ; Sabine Jokisch ; Laurence J. Kotlikoff |
| title_short | Will China eat our lunch or take us out to dinner? |
| title_sort | will china eat our lunch or take us out to dinner simulating the transition paths of the u s eu japan and china |
| title_sub | simulating the transition paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China |
| topic | Wirtschaft Wirtschaft. Geschichte Economic history 21st century |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaft Wirtschaft. Geschichte Economic history 21st century Europa USA China Economic conditions 2000- Europe Economic conditions 1945- Japan Economic conditions 1989- United States Economic conditions 2001-2009 |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w11668.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
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