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New Title:	Carnot, Nicolas Economic forecasting and policy
Main Authors:	Carnot, Nicolas 1973- (Author), Koen, Vincent 1960- (Author), Tissot, Bruno 1966- (Author)
Format:	Book
Language:	English
Published:	New York Palgrave Macmillan 2005
Edition:	1. publ.
Subjects:	Prévision économique Economic forecasting Prognoseverfahren Prognose Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaft
Links:	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014279458&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
Abstract:	"[Economic Forecasting] provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. It focuses first on a large range of theories as well as empirical techniques: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. The book then addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts, including accuracy and communication challenges, as well as their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided." -- Book cover.
Item Description:	Includes bibliographical references and index
Physical Description:	XIX, 315 S. graph. Darst.
ISBN:	1403936536 1403936544 9781403936530 9781403936547

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MARC


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Record in the Search Index

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adam_text	CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES VIII LIST OF TABLES IX LIST OF BOXES X FOREWORD BY JEAN-PHILIPPE COTIS XI ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS XII ACRONYMS XIII INTRODUCTION XVII 1 FIRST PRINCIPLES 1 1.1 WHAT TO FORECAST? 1 1.2 WHY FORECAST? 6 1.3 HOW TO FORECAST 9 2 THE DATA 15 2.1 THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK 16 2.2 QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTING 28 2.3 TECHNICAL HURDLES 29 2.4 OPEN QUESTIONS AND LIMITATIONS 41 3 INCOMING NEWS AND NEAR-TERM FORECASTING 51 3.1 MONITORING THE UPS AND DOWNS 51 3.2 COLLECTING ECONOMIC INFORMATION 53 3.3 BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS 58 3.4 MAKING SENSE OF THE DATA 64 3.5 BRIDGE MODELS 79 3.6 FINAL HEALTH WARNING 83 4 TIME SERIES METHODS 85 4.1 EMPIRICAL EXTRAPOLATION 85 4.2 ARIMA MODELS 87 4.3 DECOMPOSITION INTO TREND AND CYCLE 90 4.4 VAR MODELS 96 5 MODELLING BEHAVIOUR 103 5.1 ENTERPRISE INVESTMENT 103 5.2 HOUSEHOLD SPENDING 112 5.3 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 118 5.4 EMPLOYMENT 121 5.5 PRICES AND WAGES 125 VI CONTENTS 6 MACROECONOMIC MODELS 133 6.1 WHAT IS A MACROECONOMIC MODEL? 133 6.2 FORECASTING WITH A MODEL 141 6.3 BUILDING ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS 148 6.4 HOW FAR CAN MODELS GO? 151 7 MEDIUM- AND LONG-RUN PROJECTIONS 155 7.1 THE MEDIUM RUN 156 7.2 THE LONG RUN 166 8 FINANCIAL AND COMMODITY MARKETS 176 8.1 DEALING WITH VOLATILITY 176 8.2 INTEREST RATES 177 8.3 BOND, STOCK AND REAL ESTATE PRICES 186 8.4 EXCHANGE RATES 190 8.5 COMMODITY PRICES 194 8.6 COUNTRY-RISK ANALYSIS 200 9 BUDGET FORECASTS 207 9.1 A MORE OR LESS DETAILED APPROACH 207 9.2 FORECASTING BUDGET FLOWS OVER THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RUN 208 9.3 FORECASTING LONG-RUN FISCAL TRENDS 213 9.4 PUTTING TOGETHER A BUDGET SCENARIO 214 9.5 TOP-DOWN AND BOTTOM-UP APPROACHES 216 9.6 UNCERTAINTIES 219 9.7 AN ANALYTICAL VIEW OF THE BUDGET 222 10 SECTORAL FORECASTING 229 10.1 MICROECONOMIC FORECASTS 230 10.2 INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS 232 11 ACCURACY 235 11.1 CONCEPTUAL ISSUES 235 11.2 MEASURING ACCURACY IN PRACTICE 237 11.3 ANALYSING ERRORS 240 11.4 FORECASTERS TRACK RECORD 243 11.5 WHAT CAUSES THE ERRORS? 245 11.6 CAN AND SHOULD ACCURACY BE IMPROVED? 248 12 USING THE FORECASTS 251 12.1 ECONOMIC FORECASTS VIRTUES AND LIMITATIONS 251 12.2 FORECASTS AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY 256 12.3 PRIVATE SECTOR USES 262 13 COMMUNICATION CHALLENGES 265 13.1 EXPLAINING THE TECHNICALITIES 265 13.2 TRANSPARENCY 270 13.3 SCIENCE OR POLITICS? 271 CONTENTS VII 14 A TOUR OF THE FORECASTING INSTITUTIONS 275 14.1 TYPES OF FORECASTERS 275 14.2 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS 280 14.3 FORECASTING BODIES IN SELECTED COUNTRIES 284 EPILOGUE 291 BIBLIOGRAPHY 292 INDEX 303
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author	Carnot, Nicolas 1973- Koen, Vincent 1960- Tissot, Bruno 1966-
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dewey-tens	330 - Economics
discipline	Wirtschaftswissenschaften
edition	1. publ.
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id	DE-604.BV021236706
illustrated	Illustrated
indexdate	2024-12-20T12:26:13Z
institution	BVB
isbn	1403936536 1403936544 9781403936530 9781403936547
language	English
lccn	2004063677
oai_aleph_id	oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-014279458
oclc_num	57211326
open_access_boolean
owner	DE-1047 DE-N2 DE-573 DE-12 DE-188
owner_facet	DE-1047 DE-N2 DE-573 DE-12 DE-188
physical	XIX, 315 S. graph. Darst.
publishDate	2005
publishDateSearch	2005
publishDateSort	2005
publisher	Palgrave Macmillan
record_format	marc
spellingShingle	Carnot, Nicolas 1973- Koen, Vincent 1960- Tissot, Bruno 1966- Economic forecasting Prévision économique Economic forecasting Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4066438-7 (DE-588)4066399-1
title	Economic forecasting
title_auth	Economic forecasting
title_exact_search	Economic forecasting
title_full	Economic forecasting Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot
title_fullStr	Economic forecasting Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot
title_full_unstemmed	Economic forecasting Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot
title_new	Carnot, Nicolas Economic forecasting and policy
title_short	Economic forecasting
title_sort	economic forecasting
topic	Prévision économique Economic forecasting Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaftsentwicklung (DE-588)4066438-7 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd
topic_facet	Prévision économique Economic forecasting Prognoseverfahren Prognose Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaft
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014279458&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
work_keys_str_mv	AT carnotnicolas economicforecasting AT koenvincent economicforecasting AT tissotbruno economicforecasting

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