Making history count: a primer in quantitative methods for historians
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2002
|
| Edition: | 1. publ. |
| Subjects: | |
| Links: | http://www.h-net.org/review/hrev-a0d1j4-aa http://www.h-net.org/review/hrev-a0d1j0-aa http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/cam021/2001035660.html http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/cam021/2001035660.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009940079&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Physical Description: | XXI, 547 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0521806631 0521001374 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Feinstein, Charles H. |d 1932-2004 |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)124029949 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Making history count |b a primer in quantitative methods for historians |c Charles H. Feinstein and Mark Thomas |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge [u.a.] |b Cambridge Univ. Press |c 2002 | |
| 300 | |a XXI, 547 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 520 | 1 | |a "Making History Count introduces the main quantitative methods used in historical research. The emphasis is on intuitive understanding and application of the concepts, rather than formal statistics; no knowledge of mathematics beyond simple arithmetic is required. The techniques are illustrated by applications in social, political, demographic, and economic history." "Making History Count is written by two senior economic historians and is designed for use as the basic text for taught undergraduate and graduate courses, and is also suitable for students working on their own."--BOOK JACKET. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Geschiedschrijving |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Histoire - Méthodes statistiques | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Histoire - Méthodologie | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Kwantitatieve methoden |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Modèles historiques | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Geschichte | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Geschichtsschreibung | |
| 650 | 4 | |a History -- Statistical methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a History -- Methodology | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Thomas, Mark |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
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Contents
List of figures
List of tables
List of panels
Preface
Part I Elementary statistical analysis
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Aims of the book
1.2 The four case studies and the data sets
1.3 Types of measurement
1.3.1 Cases, variables, and values
1.3.2 Cross-section and time-series variables
1.3.3 Levels of measurement
1.3.4 Populations and samples
1.3.5 Dummy variables
1.4 Simple notation
1.5 The equation of a straight line
1.6 Powers and logarithms
1.6.1 Powers
1.6.2 Logarithms
1.6.3 Logs as proportions and ratios
1.7 Index numbers
1.8 Trends and fluctuations
1.8.1 Measuring the trend by a moving average
1.8.2 Measuring the fluctuations by the ratio to the trend
Chapter 2 Descriptive statistics
2.1 Presentation of numerical data
2.1.1 Frequency distributions
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CONTENTS
2.1.2 Bar charts and histograms
2.1.3 Frequency curves
2.2 Measures of central tendency
2.2.1 The mean, the median, and the mode
2.2.2 Weighted averages and standardized rates
2.2.3 Percentiles, deciles, and quartiles
2.3 Measures of dispersion
2.3.1 The range and the quartile deviation
2.3.2 The mean deviation, the variance, and the standard deviation
2.3.3 The coefficient of variation
2.4 Measures of central tendency and dispersion with grouped data
2.4.1 The median and mean with grouped data
2.4.2 The variance and standard deviation with grouped data
2.5 The shape of the distribution
2.5.1 Symmetrical and skewed distributions
2.5.2 Measures of skewness
2.6 The normal distribution
2.6.1 Properties of the normal distribution
2.6.2 The standard normal distribution
2.7 Exercises for chapter 2
Chapter 3 Correlation
3.1 The concept of correlation
3.1.1 Correlation is not causation
3.1.2 Scatter diagrams and correlation
3.1.3 Outliers
3.2 The correlation coefficient
3.2.1 Measuring the strength of the association
3.2.2 Derivation of the correlation coefficient, r
3.2.3 Interpreting a correlation coefficient
3.2.4 An illustration of the use of correlation coefficients
3.3 Spearman's rank correlation coefficient
3.4 Exercises for chapter 3
Chapter 4 Simple linear regression
4.1 The concept of regression
4.1.1 Explanatory and dependent variables
4.1.2 The questions addressed by regression
4.2 Fitting the regression line
4.2.1 How do we define a line?
4.2.2 What criterion should be adopted for fitting the line?
4.2.3 How do we find this best fitting line?
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CONTENTS
VU
4.2.4 The regression ofY on X versus the regression ofX on Y 99
4.2.5 Fitting a linear trend to a time series 100
4.3 Measuring the goodness of fit 102
4.3.1 Explained variations and unexplained variations (residuals) 102
4.3.2 The coefficient of determination, r2 105
4.3.3 Some intuitive implications 106
4.4 Introducing the Bailan tine 110
4.5 Exercises for chapter 4 112
Part II Samples and inductive statistics
Chapter 5 Standard errors and confidence intervals 117
5.1 Introduction 117
5.2 Sampling distributions 120
5.2.1 Sampling distributions and point estimates of the population
mean 120
5.3 Four fundamental statistical propositions 122
5.3.1 The Central Limit Theorem 122
5.4 Theoretical probability distributions 125
5.4.1 Empirical and theoretical frequency distributions 125
5.4.2 TheZ-andf-distributions 131
5.5 Confidence intervals for a sample mean 136
5.5.1 Interval estimates and margins of error 137
5.5.2 Confidence interval for an estimate of a population mean 137
5.6 Confidence intervals for other sample statistics 140
5.6.1 Sample proportions 141
5.6.2 Correlation coefficients 141
5.6.3 Regression coefficients 143
5.7 Exercises for chapter 5 145
Chapter 6 Hypothesis testing 149
6.1 Testing hypotheses 149
6.1.1 A simple illustration 150
6.1.2 The five stages of hypothesis testing 151
6.2 The null hypothesis 151
6.2.1 Other assumptions of the model 152
6.3 How confident do we want to be about the results? 153
6.3.1 Two types of error and the null hypothesis 153
6.3.2 Significance levels and the critical region 155
6.3.3 One-and two-tailed tests 158
6.3.4 Statistical versus historical significance 160
via
CONTENTS
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
Chapter 7
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
6.3.5 Conventional significance levels and prob-values
6.3.6 The critical region and the four cases of theft
Test statistics and their sampling distributions
6.4.1 The basic ideas
6.4.2 Z-andf-tests
Making a decision
Interpreting the results
Three illustrations of the use of f-tests
6.7.1 A t-test for a difference of means
6.7.2 A f-test for a correlation coefficient when the null hypothesis is
zero correlation
6.7.3 A (-test for a regression coefficient
Exercises for chapter 6
Non-parametric tests
Introduction
Non-parametric tests for two independent samples
7.2.1 The Wald-Wolfowitz runs test
7.2.2 The Mann-Whitney U-test
7.2.3 The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test
7.2.4 Criteria for choosing between alternative tests
The x2-test
7.3.1 Contingency tables or cross-tabulations
7.3.2 The x2-test for a relationship between two variables
The one-sample runs test of randomness
One-sample non-parametric tests of goodness of fit
7.5.1 The one-sample x2-test
7.5.2 The one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test
Non-parametric measures of strength of association
7.6.1 Four measures of association: 4 , Cramer's V, the contingency
coefficient C, and Goodman and Kruskal's tau
Exercises for chapter 7
Part 111 Multiple linear regression
Chapter 8 Multiple relationships
8.1 The inclusion of additional explanatory variables
8.2 Multiple regression
8.2.1 The coefficient of multiple determination, R2
8.2.2 Partial regression coefficients
8.2.3 Controlling for the influence of a second explanatory
variable
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CONTENTS
8.2.4 Understanding the impact of additional explanatory
variables 238
8.2.5 The Ballantine for multiple regression 240
8.2.6 The least squares criterion in multiple regression 242
8.2.7 Standardized beta coefficients 243
8.2.8 The adjusted coefficient of multiple determination, R2 245
8.2.9 Interpreting the intercept term 246
8.3 Partial and multiple correlation 248
8.3.1 The interpretation and order of partial correlation
coefficients 248
8.3.2 Removing the influence of the control variable 252
8.3.3 Calculation of partial correlation coefficients 253
8.3.4 The coefficient of multiple correlation, R 254
8.4 Exercises for chapter 8 255
Chapter 9 The classical linear regression model 258
9.1 Historical research and models of relationships between variables 258
9.1.1 Quantitative methods and historical judgement 260
9.2 Deviations of the dependent variable from the estimated regression
line 261
9.2.1 Errors of measurement and specification 261
9.2.2 Stochastic (random) factors and the error term, e 262
9.2.3 Sampling and the regression line 263
9.2.4 Assumptions about the error term 264
9.3 A significance test for the regression as a whole 268
9.3.1 The F-test and the F-distribution 269
9.3.2 F-tests of the statistical significance of the regression as a
whole 269
9.3.3 The relationship of Fand R2 271
9.4 The standard error of the estimate, SEE 272
9.4.1 Confidence interval for a prediction of the mean value of a
dependent variable 273
9.4.2 Confidence interval for a prediction of a specific value of
a dependent variable 276
9.5 Exercises for chapter 9 277
Chapter 10 Dummy variables and lagged values 280
10.1 Dummy variables 280
10.1.1 Dummy variables with two or more categories 280
10.1.2 Dummy variables as a change in the intercept 283
10.1.3 Additional dummy variables 285
CONTENTS
10.1.4 Interaction between two dummy variables
10.1.5 Interaction between dummy and numerical variables
10.2 Lagged variables
10.2.1 Lagged dependent variables
10.2.2 Distributed lag models
10.3 Exercises for chapter 10
Chapter 11 Violating the assumptions of the classical linear regression model
11.1 The assumptions of the classical linear regression model
11.1.1 The model is correctly specified
11.1.2 The error term is appropriately specified
11.1.3 The variables are correctly measured and appropriately
specified
11.2 Problems of model specification
11.2.1 Non-linear models
11.2.2 Omitted and redundant variables
11.2.3 Unstable parameter values
11.3 Problems of error specification
11.3.1 Non-zero errors
11.3.2 Heteroscedasticity
11.3.3 Autocorrelation
11.3.4 Outliers
11.4 Problems of variable specification
11.4.1 Errors in variables
11.4.2 Multicollinearity
11.4.3 Simultaneity
11.5 Exercises for chapter 11
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Part IV Further topics in regression analysis
Chapter 12 Non-linear models and functional forms 333
12.1 Different forms of non-linear relationships 334
12.2 Estimation of non-linear regression models 341
12.2.1 Two groups of non-linear models 342
12.2.2 Estimating the double logarithmic and semi-logarithmic
models 345
12.3 Interpretation of non-linear relationships 347
12.3.1 Interpretation of the regression coefficients for logarithmic
models 347
12.3.2 Elasticities 349
12.3.3 Long-run multipliers 351
CONTENTS Xi
12.4 Fitting a trend to a time series 351
12.4.1 Fitting a log-linear trend 351
12.4.2 Fitting non-linear trends 352
12.5 Modelling a relationship 359
12.5.1 Choice of functional form 360
12.5.2 Some general principles 362
12.5.3 Implementing the principles: some examples from economic
history 363
12.5.4 Implementing the principles: some examples from demographic,
social, and political history 367
12.6 Model specification 372
12.7 Exercises for chapter 12 380
Chapter 13 Logit, probit, and tob it models 384
13.1 Limited dependent variables 385
13.1.1 Three cases oflimited dependent variables 385
13.1.2 Why linear models are not appropriate for limited dependent
variables 387
13.2 Estimating the logit model: coefficients, absolute effects, and
elasticities 390
13.2.1 The logit regression model 390
13.2.2 Interpreting logit coefficients 391
13.2.3 Absolute changes: marginal effects and impact
effects 399
13.2.4 Calculating the marginal and impact effects 402
13.2.5 Proportionate effects: logit elasticities 406
13.2.6 Non-linearity and the measurement of change 412
13.2.7 Goodnessoffit 413
13.3 Estimating the logit model: an illustration 415
13.3.1 An illustration of the logit model 415
13.3.2 Estimating the logit model using grouped data 418
13.4 Estimating the probit model 419
13.4.1 The probit model 419
13.4.2 Interpreting the results from a probit model 420
13.5 Multi-response models 422
13.6 Censored dependent variables 423
13.6.1 A censored continuous dependent variable 423
13.6.2 The tobit model 424
13.6.3 Two-part censored models 427
13.7 Exercises for chapter 13 432
CONTENTS
Part V Specifying and interpreting models: four case studies
Chapter 14 Case studies 1 and 2: unemployment in Britain and emigration
from Ireland
14.1 Inter-war benefits and unemployment in Great Britain
14.1.1 The Benjamin and Köchin model
14.1.2 Parameter stability and outliers in the Benjamin and
Köchin model
14.2 Emigration from Ireland
14.2.1 The time-series model of Irish emigration
14.2.2 The panel model of Irish emigration
14.2.3 The impact of the explanatory variables on changes in
emigration over time
Chapter 15 Case studies 3 and 4: the Old Poor Law in England and leaving home
in the United States, 1850-1860
15.1 The effects of the Old Poor Law
15.1.1 Relief payments, wages, and unemployment
15.1.2 The Old Poor Law and the birth rate
15.2 Leaving home in the United States, 1850-1860
15.2.1 Influences on leaving home
15.2.2 The logit model
Appendix to § 15.1.1 Derivation of reduced-form equations from a simultaneous-
equations model
Appendix A The four data sets
A. 1 The iniquitous effects of the Old Poor Law
A.2 What explains the scale and timing of the massive emigration from
Ireland after the famine?
A.3 To what extent were generous unemployment benefits responsible
for the high level of unemployment in inter-war Britain?
A.4 What influenced children's decision to leave home in the United
States in the mid-nineteenth century?
Appendix B Index numbers
B.I Price and quantity relatives
B.2 Two types of index number
B.3 Laspeyres index numbers with fixed weights
B.4 The index number problem and chained indices
B.5 Paasche index numbers with changing (given year) weights
Bibliography
Index of subjects
Index of names
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| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Feinstein, Charles H. 1932-2004 Thomas, Mark |
| author_GND | (DE-588)124029949 |
| author_facet | Feinstein, Charles H. 1932-2004 Thomas, Mark |
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| dewey-full | 902/.121 902.1 |
| dewey-hundreds | 900 - History & geography |
| dewey-ones | 902 - Miscellany of history |
| dewey-raw | 902/.1 21 902.1 |
| dewey-search | 902/.1 21 902.1 |
| dewey-sort | 3902 11 221 |
| dewey-tens | 900 - History & geography |
| discipline | Soziologie Geschichte |
| edition | 1. publ. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV014627836 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-01-11T13:44:30Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0521806631 0521001374 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2001035660 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-009940079 |
| oclc_num | 47045137 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-384 DE-12 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-824 DE-521 DE-83 DE-11 DE-188 DE-76 DE-BY-UBR |
| owner_facet | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-384 DE-12 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-703 DE-824 DE-521 DE-83 DE-11 DE-188 DE-76 DE-BY-UBR |
| physical | XXI, 547 S. graph. Darst. |
| psigel | gbd_4 |
| publishDate | 2002 |
| publishDateSearch | 2002 |
| publishDateSort | 2002 |
| publisher | Cambridge Univ. Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Feinstein, Charles H. 1932-2004 Verfasser (DE-588)124029949 aut Making history count a primer in quantitative methods for historians Charles H. Feinstein and Mark Thomas 1. publ. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 2002 XXI, 547 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier "Making History Count introduces the main quantitative methods used in historical research. The emphasis is on intuitive understanding and application of the concepts, rather than formal statistics; no knowledge of mathematics beyond simple arithmetic is required. The techniques are illustrated by applications in social, political, demographic, and economic history." "Making History Count is written by two senior economic historians and is designed for use as the basic text for taught undergraduate and graduate courses, and is also suitable for students working on their own."--BOOK JACKET. Geschiedschrijving gtt Histoire - Méthodes statistiques Histoire - Méthodologie Kwantitatieve methoden gtt Modèles historiques Geschichte Geschichtsschreibung History -- Statistical methods History -- Methodology Historical models Quantitative Methode (DE-588)4232139-6 gnd rswk-swf Geschichtswissenschaft (DE-588)4020535-6 gnd rswk-swf Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 gnd rswk-swf Statistisches Modell (DE-588)4121722-6 gnd rswk-swf Historische Statistik (DE-588)4252179-8 gnd rswk-swf Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd rswk-swf Geschichtswissenschaft (DE-588)4020535-6 s Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 s DE-604 Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 s Historische Statistik (DE-588)4252179-8 s DE-188 Quantitative Methode (DE-588)4232139-6 s Statistisches Modell (DE-588)4121722-6 s Thomas, Mark Verfasser aut http://www.h-net.org/review/hrev-a0d1j4-aa Book review (H-Net) http://www.h-net.org/review/hrev-a0d1j0-aa Book review (H-Net) http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/cam021/2001035660.html Publisher description http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/cam021/2001035660.html Table of contents HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009940079&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Feinstein, Charles H. 1932-2004 Thomas, Mark Making history count a primer in quantitative methods for historians Geschiedschrijving gtt Histoire - Méthodes statistiques Histoire - Méthodologie Kwantitatieve methoden gtt Modèles historiques Geschichte Geschichtsschreibung History -- Statistical methods History -- Methodology Historical models Quantitative Methode (DE-588)4232139-6 gnd Geschichtswissenschaft (DE-588)4020535-6 gnd Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 gnd Statistisches Modell (DE-588)4121722-6 gnd Historische Statistik (DE-588)4252179-8 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4232139-6 (DE-588)4020535-6 (DE-588)4039798-1 (DE-588)4121722-6 (DE-588)4252179-8 (DE-588)4056995-0 |
| title | Making history count a primer in quantitative methods for historians |
| title_auth | Making history count a primer in quantitative methods for historians |
| title_exact_search | Making history count a primer in quantitative methods for historians |
| title_full | Making history count a primer in quantitative methods for historians Charles H. Feinstein and Mark Thomas |
| title_fullStr | Making history count a primer in quantitative methods for historians Charles H. Feinstein and Mark Thomas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Making history count a primer in quantitative methods for historians Charles H. Feinstein and Mark Thomas |
| title_short | Making history count |
| title_sort | making history count a primer in quantitative methods for historians |
| title_sub | a primer in quantitative methods for historians |
| topic | Geschiedschrijving gtt Histoire - Méthodes statistiques Histoire - Méthodologie Kwantitatieve methoden gtt Modèles historiques Geschichte Geschichtsschreibung History -- Statistical methods History -- Methodology Historical models Quantitative Methode (DE-588)4232139-6 gnd Geschichtswissenschaft (DE-588)4020535-6 gnd Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 gnd Statistisches Modell (DE-588)4121722-6 gnd Historische Statistik (DE-588)4252179-8 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Geschiedschrijving Histoire - Méthodes statistiques Histoire - Méthodologie Kwantitatieve methoden Modèles historiques Geschichte Geschichtsschreibung History -- Statistical methods History -- Methodology Historical models Quantitative Methode Geschichtswissenschaft Modell Statistisches Modell Historische Statistik Statistik |
| url | http://www.h-net.org/review/hrev-a0d1j4-aa http://www.h-net.org/review/hrev-a0d1j0-aa http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/cam021/2001035660.html http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/cam021/2001035660.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009940079&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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