A random walk down Wall Street: including a life-cycle guide to personal investing
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York [u.a.]
Norton
1996
|
| Edition: | 6. ed. |
| Subjects: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007583218&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Physical Description: | 522 S. Ill., graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0393038882 9780393315295 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a A random walk down Wall Street |b including a life-cycle guide to personal investing |c Burton G. Malkiel |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface 13
Acknowledgments from Earlier Editions 17
Part One Stocks and Their Value
1. Firm Foundations and Castles in the Air 23
— What Is a Random Walk? 24
Investing as a Way of Life Today 26
Investing in Theory 28
The Firm Foundation Theory 28
The Castle in the Air Theory 30
How the Random Walk Is to Be Conducted 32
2. The Madness of Crowds 34
The Tulip Bulb Craze 35
The South Sea Bubble 38
The Florida Real Estate Craze 44
Wall Street Lays an Egg 45
An Afterword 52
3. Stock Valuation from the Sixties into the Nineties 54
The Sanity of Institutions 54
The Soaring Sixties 56
The New New Era : The Growth Stock/New Issue Craze 56
Synergy Generates Energy: The Conglomerate Boom 61
Performance Comes to the Market: The Bubble in Concept Stocks 68
The Sour Seventies 74
The Nifty Fifty 74
The Roaring Eighties 76
The Triumphant Return of New Issues 77
Concepts Conquer Again: The Biotechnology Bubble 79
8 Contents
The Chinese Romance with the Lycoris Plant 82
Some Other Bubbles of the 1980s 83
The Nervy Nineties 87
The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks 87
4. The Firm Foundation Theory of Stock Prices 93
The Fundamental Determinants of Stock Prices 94
Two Important Caveats 101
Testing the Rules 104
One More Caveat 106
What s Left of the Firm Foundation? 109
Part Two How the Pros Play the Biggest Game in Town
5. Technical and Fundamental Analysis 115
Technical versus Fundamental Analysis 116
What Can Charts Tell You? 118
The Rationale for the Charting Method 122
Why Might Charting Fail to Work? 124
From Chartist to Technician 126
The Technique of Fundamental Analysis 127
Why Might Fundamental Analysis Fail to Work? 131
Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis Together 132
6. Technical Analysis and the Random Walk Theory 137
! Holes in Their Shoes and Ambiguity in Their Forecasts 138
Is There Momentum in the Stock Market? 140
Just What Exactly Is a Random Walk? 141 ¦
Some More Elaborate Technical Systems 145
The Filter System 145
The Dow Theory 146
The Relative Strength System 147
Price Volume Systems 147
Reading Chart Patterns 147
Randomness Is Hard to Accept 149
A Gaggle of Other Technical Theories to Help You
Lose Money 150
The Hemline Indicator 150
The Super Bowl Indicator 152
The Odd Lot Theory 153
A Few More Systems 154
Technical Market Gurus 155
Contents 9
Why Are Technicians Still Hired? 158 ,
Appraising the Counterattack 158
Implications for Investors 161
7. How Good Is Fundamental Analysis? 164
The Views from Wall Street and Academia 165
Are Security Analysts Fundamentally Clairvoyant? 166
Why the Crystal Ball Is Clouded 169
1. The Influence of Random Events 170 ¦•
2. The Creation of Dubious Reported Earnings through Creative Ac¬
counting Procedures 171
3. The Basic Incompetence of Many of the Analysts Themselves 173
4. The Loss of the Best Analysts to the Sales Desk or to Portfolio
Management 176
Do Security Analysts Pick Winners? The Performance of the Mu¬
tual Funds 177
Can Any Fundamental System Pick Winners? 184
The Verdict on Market Timing 186
The Semi strong and Strong Forms of the Random Walk
Theory 189
The Middle of the Road: A Personal Viewpoint 191
8. A More Deliberate Walk Down Wall Street: Is the Stock
Market Predictable After All? 194
Predictable Patterns in the Behavior of Stock Prices 196
Predictable Relationships Between Certain Fundamental Vari¬
ables and Future Stock Prices 204
Strong Form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis 209
The Performance of Professional Investors 210
Some Other Anomalies 215
The Market Crash of October 1987 217
Concluding Comments 221
Part Three The New Investment Technology
9. Modern Portfolio and Capital Asset Pricing Theory 227
Denning Risk: The Dispersion of Returns 229
Exhibit
Expected Return and Variance: Measures of Reward and Risk 229
Documenting Risk: A Long Run Study 232
Reducing Risk: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) 235
Modeling Risk: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) 241
10 Contents
10. The Current State of the Art: Beyond Beta 251
Batting for Beta: The Supporting Evidence 252
Being Bearish on Beta: Some Disquieting Results 254
Academic A ttack 1: Theory Does Not Measure Up to Practice 256
Academic Attack 2: Beta Is a Fickle Short Term Performer (and Some¬
times It Fails to Work for Long Periods of Time) 258
Academic Attack 3: Estimated Betas Are Unstable 260
Academic Attack 4: Beta Is Easily Rolled Over 266
Academic Attack 5: Has Beta Ever Been a Reliable Predictor of Future
Returns? 267
An Appraisal of the Evidence 269
The Quant Quest for Better Measures of Risk: Arbitrage Pricing
Theory 271
A Summing Up 275
11. How Pork Bellies Acquired an Ivy League Suit: A Primer on
Derivatives 277
The Basic Types of Derivatives 278
The Futures Markets: Functions and History 280
The Options Markets: Functions and History 285
The Exciting Dangers of Derivatives 289
Some Illustrations of the Potential Profits and Pitfalls from Op¬
tions and Futures 293
Bullish on Micron Technology Stock—Alternative Profit and Risk Po¬
sitions 293
Bearish on Micron Technology Stock—Alternative Profit and Risk
Positions 296
Strategies Involving Financial Futures 300
The Controversy Over Derivatives 301
Some Rules for Individual Investors 305
Appendix to Chapter 11: What Determines Prices in the
Futures and Options Markets? 311
Part Four A Practical Guide for Random Walkers and
Other Investors
12. A Fitness Manual for Random Walkers 317
Exercise 1: Cover Thyself with Protection 318
Exercise 2: Know Your Investment Objectives 321
Exercise 3: Dodge Uncle Sam Whenever You Can 329
Contents
Exercise 4: Be Competitive; Let the Yield on Your Cash Reserve
Keep Pace with Inflation 334
Money Market Mutual Funds 334
Money Market Deposit Accounts 337
Bank Certificates 338
Tax Exempt Money Market Funds 339
Exercise 5: Investigate a Promenade through Bond Country 341
Zero Coupon Bonds Can Generate Large Future Returns 342
No Load Bond Funds Are Appropriate Vehicles for Individual
Investors 344
Tax Exempt Bonds Are Useful for High Bracket In vestors 345
Should You Be a Bond Market Junkie? 348
Exercise 6: Begin Your Walk at Your Own Home; Renting Leads
to Flabby Investment Muscles 349
Exercise 7: After the Real Estate Depression of the Early 1990s,
Some Attractive Opportunities Exist in Commercial Real
Estate 353
Exercise 8: Tiptoe through the Investment Fields of Gold and Col¬
lectibles 358
Exercise 9: Remember that Commission Costs Are Not Random;
Some Are Cheaper than Others 362
Exercise 10: Diversify Your Investment Steps 363
A Final Checkup 364
13. The Determinants of Stock and Bond Returns and How You
Can Roughly Project the Future Returns from Financial As¬
sets 366
The Acceleration of Inflation in the Late 1960s and 1970s 370
The Agony of the Bond Investor 372
The Sorrow of the Stock Investor 372
Why Did Common Stocks Fail in the 1970s?—Some False
Clues 373
The Smoking Gun: The Price Dividends, Price Earnings Crash of
the 1970s 377
The 1980 Paper Asset Thesis 380
The 1980s—A Decade for Paper Assets 381
Returns During the First Half of the 1990s 383
Judging Returns for Financial Investments during the Late 1990s
and into the Twenty First Century 384
Could I Be Wrong? 396
12 Contents
14. A Life Cycle Guide to Investing 400
1. Risk and Reward Are Related 401
2. Your Actual Risk in Stock and Bond Investing Depends on the x
Length of Time You Hold Your Investment 402
3. Dollar Cost Averaging Can Reduce the Risks of Investing in
Stocks and Bonds 405
4. The Risks You Can Afford to Take Depend on Your Total Fi¬
nancial Situation 408
The Life Cycle Investment Guide, with Some Individual Adjust¬
ments to the Game Plan 411
15. Three Giant Steps Down Wall Street 421
The No Brainer Step: Buying the Market 422
The Tax Managed Index Fund 429
The Deep Thinker Step: Doing It Yourself 432
The Substitute Player Step: Hire a Professional Wall Street
Walker 441
Risk Level 445
Unrealized Gains 445
Expense Ratios 446
The Morningstar Mutual Fund Information Service 446
A Primer on Mutual Fund Costs 449
Loading Fees 450
Expense Charges 451
Comparing Mutual Fund Costs 452
The Malkiel Step 453
A Paradox 456
Some Last Reflections on Our Walk 458
A Random Walker s Address Book and Reference Guide to Mutual
Funds 461
Bibliography 489
Index 503
|
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| author | Malkiel, Burton G. 1932- |
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| callnumber-subject | HG - Finance |
| classification_rvk | QK 800 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)301043510 (DE-599)BVBBV011291264 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 6. ed. |
| format | Book |
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| spellingShingle | Malkiel, Burton G. 1932- A random walk down Wall Street including a life-cycle guide to personal investing Actions (Titres de société) - Guides, manuels, etc Investissements - Guides, manuels, etc Marches aléatoires (Mathématiques) Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 gnd Aktienanlage (DE-588)4125483-1 gnd Strategie (DE-588)4057952-9 gnd Privater Anleger (DE-588)4389910-9 gnd Wertpapieranlage (DE-588)4189703-1 gnd |
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| title | A random walk down Wall Street including a life-cycle guide to personal investing |
| title_auth | A random walk down Wall Street including a life-cycle guide to personal investing |
| title_exact_search | A random walk down Wall Street including a life-cycle guide to personal investing |
| title_full | A random walk down Wall Street including a life-cycle guide to personal investing Burton G. Malkiel |
| title_fullStr | A random walk down Wall Street including a life-cycle guide to personal investing Burton G. Malkiel |
| title_full_unstemmed | A random walk down Wall Street including a life-cycle guide to personal investing Burton G. Malkiel |
| title_short | A random walk down Wall Street |
| title_sort | a random walk down wall street including a life cycle guide to personal investing |
| title_sub | including a life-cycle guide to personal investing |
| topic | Actions (Titres de société) - Guides, manuels, etc Investissements - Guides, manuels, etc Marches aléatoires (Mathématiques) Investition (DE-588)4027556-5 gnd Aktienanlage (DE-588)4125483-1 gnd Strategie (DE-588)4057952-9 gnd Privater Anleger (DE-588)4389910-9 gnd Wertpapieranlage (DE-588)4189703-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Actions (Titres de société) - Guides, manuels, etc Investissements - Guides, manuels, etc Marches aléatoires (Mathématiques) Investition Aktienanlage Strategie Privater Anleger Wertpapieranlage Ratgeber |
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