Economic cooperation in an uncertain world:
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Oxford u.a.
Blackwell
1994
|
| Edition: | 1. publ. |
| Subjects: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006479815&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Physical Description: | VIII, 283 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 1557863067 |
Staff View
MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures vi
List of Tables ix
Preface and Acknowledgements xi
1 Introduction 1
2 A Theoretical Framework for Modeling the Open Econony 13
3 The Theory of Policy Coordination under Uncertainty 38
4 An Example: the Stock Market Crash of October 1987 76
5 Alternative Empirical Models of the Open Economy 95
6 Model Uncertainty and the Gains from Coordination: an
Empirical Analysis 127
7 Cooperation versus Coordination 169
8 On the Sustainability of Cooperative Agreements 190
9 Issues in Bargaining 221
10 Conclusions 238
Appendix: Cooperation and Coordination in Historical
Perspective 242
Bibliography 261
Index 276
List of Figures
2.1 Averages and standard deviations across models for
simulated effects of a U.S. monetary expansion 27 j
3.1 Welfare under an inflationary shock 47 !
3.2 Nash Equilibrium under an inflationary shock 49
3.3 Optimal unemployment/inflation trade off for different
(a/ t ) 50 |
3.4 Coordinated and uncoordinated equilibrium (transmission
uncertainty) 62
3.5 Mean and variance of inflation under optimal policy 63
3.6 Uncertainty about transmission multipliers 66
3.7 Uncertainty about domestic multipliers (positive
transmission effect) 67
4.1 Stock market prices, January 1985 to September 1990
(indices, 1985 = 100) 79
4.2 U.S. Dollar exchange rates, January 1985 to December 1990
(indices, 1985 = 100) 81
4.3 Implied volatility of S P 500, 1 January 1987 to 12 October
1990 82
4.4 Short term interest rates, January 1985 to December 1990
(in percent per annum) 83
5.1 Model residuals: U.S. aggregate demand 112
5.2 Model residuals: U.S. money demand 112
5.3 Model residuals: U.S. output price 113
5.4 Model residuals: U.S. consumer price level (all models) 113
5.5 Model residuals: ROW aggregate demand 114
5.6 Model residuals: ROW money demand 114
5.7 Model residuals: ROW output price 115
5.8 Model residuals: ROW consumer price index (all models) 115
5.9 Model residuals: exchange rate (all models; increase is a
depreciation of the U.S. dollar) 116
5.10 Effect on U.S. output of a one percent increase in the U.S.
money supply 120
List of Figures vii
5.11 Effect on U.S. output of a one percent increase in the
ROW money supply 120
5.12 Effect on the U.S. CPI of a one percent increase in the
U.S. money supply 121
5.13 Effect on the U.S. CPI of a one percent increase in the
ROW money supply 121
5.14 Effect on ROW output of a one percent increase in the
ROW money supply 122
5.15 Effect on ROW output of a one percent increase in the
U.S. money supply 122
5.16 Effect on the ROW CPI of a one percent increase in the
ROW money supply 123
5.17 Effect on the ROW CPI of a one percent increase in the
U.S. money supply 123
5.18 Effect on the U.S. exchange rate of a one percent increase
in the U.S. money supply 124
5.19 Effect on the U.S. exchange rate of a one percent increase
in the ROW money supply 124
6.1 Coordinated and uncoordinated regimes: output levels
Model A 140
6.2 Coordinated and uncoordinated regimes: output levels
Model B 140
6.3 Coordinated and uncoordinated regimes: output levels
Model D 141
6.4 Coordinated and uncoordinated regimes: inflation rates
Model A 141
6.5 Coordinated and uncoordinated regimes: inflation rates
Model B 142
6.6 Coordinated and uncoordinated regimes: inflation rates
Model D 142
6.7 Coordinated and uncoordinated regimes: money supplies
Model A 143
6.8 Coordinated and uncoordinated regimes: money supplies
Model B 143
6.9 Coordinated and uncoordinated regimes: money supplies
Model D 144
6.10 Money target Model A 144
6.11 Money target Model B 145
6.12 Money target Model D 145
6.13 Nominal income target Model A 146
6.14 Nominal income target Model B 146
6.15 Nominal income target Model D 147
6.16 Nominal exchange rate target Model A 147
viii List of Figures
6.17 Nominal exchange rate target Model B 148
6.18 Nominal exchange rate target Model D 148
6.19 Real exchange rate target Model A 149
6.20 Real exchange rate target Model B 149
6.21 Real exchange rate target Model D 150
6.22 Synthetic rule Model A 150
6.23 Synthetic rule Model B 151
6.24 Synthetic rule Model D 151 j
6.25 Model A is the true model initial priors (0.4,0.2,0.2,0.2) 161
6.26 Model B is the true model initial priors (0.2,0.4,0.2,0.2) 161
6.27 Model C is the true model initial priors (0.2,0.2,0.4,0.2) 162
6.28 Model D is the true model initial priors (0.2,0.2,0.2,0.4) 162
6.29 VAR Model is the true model initial priors
(0.3,0.3,0.2,0.2) 165 j
7.1 Coordinated vs. uncoordinated equilibrium: bias of omission !
(z z*) 0 176
7.2 Coordinated vs. uncoordinated equilibrium: bias of
commission 183
8.1 Tight vs. loose trigger 197
8.2 Tight vs. loose trigger 205
8.3 Trigger probability: effect of variance of e 207
8.4 Effect of multiplier uncertainty 215
8.5 Effect of multiplier uncertainty on maximum trigger
probability 216
9.1 Welfare gains from coordination when foreign !
government is of type 1 233
9.2 Welfare gains from coordination when foreign
government is of type 2 234
List of Tables
2.1 Policy multipliers of some global econometric models: effect
in the second year of a one percent increase in the global
supply 29
5.1 Estimated models 99
5.2 Equations of alternative models 100
5.3 Tests of random walk with drift against a deterministic
trand in the regression Ax = a + /?x_i + fj,T+ (3Ax over
the period 1964 88 104
5.4 Tests for cointegration using augmented Dickey Fuller and
Johansen Tests, 1965 89 105
5.5 Coefficients estimated by three stage least squares and
associated fit statistics (coefficient values: standard errors in
paranthesis) 108
5.6 VAR estimates (1966 88) 118
5.7 Eigenvalues of alternative models 119
6.1 Coefficients of model independent rules 138
6.2 Level of dusutility for 10% inflation shock 138
6.3 Welfare with and without model uncertainty 152
6.4 A measure of multiplier uncertainty for the effects of a
money supply change on domestic and foreign variables 153
6.5 Welfare levels under Model A (fixed probability priors) 155
6.6 Welfare levels under Model B (fixed probability priors) 156
6.7 Welfare levels under Model C (fixed probability priors) 156
6.8 Welfare levels under Model D (fixed probability priors) 157
6.9 Welfare levels under Model A (Bayesian updating) 159
6.10 Welfare levels under Model B (Bayesian updating) 159
6.11 Welfare levels under Model C (Bayesian updating) 160
6.12 Welfare levels under Model D (Bayesian updating) 160
6.13 Welfare levels under VAR model (fixed priors) 164
6.14 Welfare levels under VAR model (Bayesian updating) 164
8.1 Degree of compliance with summit targets 192
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Ghosh, Atish R. Masson, Paul R. 1946- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)137821948 |
| author_facet | Ghosh, Atish R. Masson, Paul R. 1946- |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 1. publ. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV009794910 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T09:42:18Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1557863067 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-006479815 |
| oclc_num | 28889551 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-703 DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-521 DE-83 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-703 DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-521 DE-83 DE-188 |
| physical | VIII, 283 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1994 |
| publishDateSearch | 1994 |
| publishDateSort | 1994 |
| publisher | Blackwell |
| record_format | marc |
| spellingShingle | Ghosh, Atish R. Masson, Paul R. 1946- Economic cooperation in an uncertain world Cooperación internacional Internationale economische betrekkingen gtt Overheidsbeleid gtt Politik Weltwirtschaft International economic relations Wirtschaftskooperation (DE-588)4079344-8 gnd Internationale Kooperation (DE-588)4120503-0 gnd Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 gnd Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4162065-3 gnd Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 gnd Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4079344-8 (DE-588)4120503-0 (DE-588)4186957-6 (DE-588)4162065-3 (DE-588)4019902-2 (DE-588)4065468-0 (DE-588)4070864-0 |
| title | Economic cooperation in an uncertain world |
| title_auth | Economic cooperation in an uncertain world |
| title_exact_search | Economic cooperation in an uncertain world |
| title_full | Economic cooperation in an uncertain world Atish R. Ghosh and Paul R. Masson |
| title_fullStr | Economic cooperation in an uncertain world Atish R. Ghosh and Paul R. Masson |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic cooperation in an uncertain world Atish R. Ghosh and Paul R. Masson |
| title_short | Economic cooperation in an uncertain world |
| title_sort | economic cooperation in an uncertain world |
| topic | Cooperación internacional Internationale economische betrekkingen gtt Overheidsbeleid gtt Politik Weltwirtschaft International economic relations Wirtschaftskooperation (DE-588)4079344-8 gnd Internationale Kooperation (DE-588)4120503-0 gnd Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 gnd Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4162065-3 gnd Geldpolitik (DE-588)4019902-2 gnd Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Cooperación internacional Internationale economische betrekkingen Overheidsbeleid Politik Weltwirtschaft International economic relations Wirtschaftskooperation Internationale Kooperation Unsicherheit Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik Geldpolitik Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006479815&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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