Macroeconomic policy in a world economy: from econometric design to practical operation
The book benefits not only from Professor Taylor's well-established international reputation as a leading expert on macroeconomic theory but also from his policy experience "inside the beltway," including two and one-half years' service as a member of the Council of Economic Advi...
Gespeichert in:
| Beteilige Person: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Deutsch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York [u.a.]
Norton
1993
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. ed. |
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006323441&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Zusammenfassung: | The book benefits not only from Professor Taylor's well-established international reputation as a leading expert on macroeconomic theory but also from his policy experience "inside the beltway," including two and one-half years' service as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers where he was responsible for macroeconomic and international economic issues The notion of a policy rule, defined as the systematic response of the policy instruments to the state of the economy, is pervasive in modern macroeconomic research. Experts like Professor Taylor regularly respond to questions about how policy affects the economy. Sometimes the questions - such as the independence of the central bank, the formation of a currency bloc, the enforcement of government budget rules - concern the fundamental design of the policy-making institutions |
| Abstract: | In this long-awaited book, John B. Taylor sets forth an alternative to the Keynesian econometric analysis traditionally applied by macroeconomic policymakers |
| Umfang: | XVIII, 330 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0393963160 |
Internformat
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| 520 | 3 | |a In this long-awaited book, John B. Taylor sets forth an alternative to the Keynesian econometric analysis traditionally applied by macroeconomic policymakers | |
| 520 | |a The book benefits not only from Professor Taylor's well-established international reputation as a leading expert on macroeconomic theory but also from his policy experience "inside the beltway," including two and one-half years' service as a member of the Council of Economic Advisers where he was responsible for macroeconomic and international economic issues | ||
| 520 | |a The notion of a policy rule, defined as the systematic response of the policy instruments to the state of the economy, is pervasive in modern macroeconomic research. Experts like Professor Taylor regularly respond to questions about how policy affects the economy. Sometimes the questions - such as the independence of the central bank, the formation of a currency bloc, the enforcement of government budget rules - concern the fundamental design of the policy-making institutions | ||
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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Contents
List of Figures xi
List of Tables xiii
Preface xiv
Acknowledgments xix
PARTI. INTRODUCTION
1 Macroeconomic Policy Questions and Methods 3
1.1 Policy Rules and Types of Policy Questions 4
Design Questions 6
Transition Questions 7
Operational Questions 8
1.2 Technical Preliminaries: Stochastic Modeling
with Rational Expectations 9
Linear Models with One Variable 9
Linear Models with More than One Variable 16
Nonlinear Models 18
1.3 The Lucas Critique 20
1.4 Economic Policy Rules and Shocks in a Stylized
Two Country Model 22
77t* Impact ofChanges in the Policy Instruments 24
Effects of Changes in Policy Rules 29
Reference Notes 30
2 A First Look at Econometric Policy Evaluation 32
2.1 The Structureof the Model 33
The Determination of Wages and Prices 33
Nonsynchronized Wage Setting with Different Contract Lengths 35
Interpreting the n Coefficients 35
Aggregate Demand and Employment 38
The Monetary Policy Rule 39
Summary ofthe Equations and the Stochastic Structure 39
viii Contents
2.2 Solution and Estimation Techniques 40
Solving the Model: Obtaining a Linear Vector Autoregression 40
Maximum Likelihood Estimation 44
2.3 Empirical Implementation and Parameter Estimates 44
Estimation Results 46
2.4 The Effect of Policy Changes on the Reduced Form
Coefficients 50
2.5 Design of Policy Rules 53
Steady State Covariance Matrix of the Endogenous Variables 53
Comparison of Policy Rules with Historical Shocks 55
Response to Individual Wage Shocks 57
2.6 Transition to a New Policy Rule: Disinflation 59
2.7 Model Validation with Policy Analysis 61
2.8 Policy Summary, Retrospect, and Prospect 62
Reference Notes 63
PARTII. AN INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
3 Building a Multicountry Empirical Structure 67
3.1 An Overview: Key Features of the Model 67
3.2 Wage Determination: Synchronized and Staggered
Wage Setting 71
The Estimation Procedure and Results 74
3.3 Aggregate Price Adjustment 78
3.4 Import and Export Prices 79
Import Prices 80
Export Prices 82
3.5 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates 82
3.6 Term Structure of Interest Rates 84
3.7 Consumption Demand 85
3.8 Fixed Investment 88
3.9 Inventory Investment 91
3.10 Exports and Imports 91
3.11 Money Demand 93
3.12 Identities and Potential GNP 95
3.13 The Whole Model 97
Reference Notes 98
Appendix 3A. Estimation and Test Procedures 99
Appendix 3B. Summary of Elasticities 102
4 Shocks and Disturbances to the World Economy 106
4.1 Defining and Computing the Shocks 108
4.2 Estimating the Variance Covariance Matrix and
Drawing New Shocks 112
Using the Actual Shocks Again 113
Dealing with Changes in the Stochastic Structure 113
Contents ix
4.3 Which Shocks Are Big and Which Are Correlated? 113
Financial Sector Shocks 115
Goods Market Shocks 131
Price Shocks 132
Correlation between Shocks in Different Groups 132
4.4 Conclusion 132
Reference Notes 133
5 The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Instruments 134
5.1 The Nature of the Simulations 136
5.2 Unanticipated Increase in Money Supply 137
Theoretical Insights 137
Monetary Expansion in the United States 206
Monetary Expansion in Other Countries 207
5.3 Unanticipated Increase in Government Purchases 209
Theoretical Insights 209
Fiscal Expansion in the United States 209
Fiscal Expansion in Other Countries 210
5.4 Fixed Exchange Rates 211
Theoretical Considerations 211
Simulation Results 212
5.5 An Anticipated Increase in the Money Supply 212
5.6 Anticipated Increase in Government Spending 213
5.7 Empirical Overview 214
Monetary Policy Effects on Real Output and Prices 214
Monetary Policy Effects on the Trade Balance and on Other Countries 215
Fiscal Policy Effects on Real Output and Prices 215
Fiscal Policy Effects on the Trade Balance and on Other Countries 215
Assessing the Magnitude of the Impact in the 1980s 216
Reference Notes 216
PART HI. ECONOMETRIC POLICY EVALUATION
6 Design of Policy Systems 221
6.1 The International Monetary System: Fixed or Flexible Rates? 223
Assumptions about Monetary Policy Rules 224
Interest Rate Rules under Flexible Rates 225
Interest Rate Rules in the Fixed Exchange Rate System 226
Baseline and Targets for Price Levels and Real Output 22 7
The Stochastic Structure under Alternative Regimes 22 7
Drawing the Shocks 228
Macroeconomic Performance 229
Comparative Performance for One Draw of Shocks 235
Sensitivity Analysis—1: Simulation with Actual Residuals 235
Sensitivity Analysis—2: Altering the Weights on the World Price Index 244
Sensitivity Analysis—3: Changing the Response Coefficients 244
6.2 Coordination in the Design of Policy Rules? 244
6.3 Looking for a Better Monetary Policy Rule 250
6.4 Conclusions 251
Reference Notes 256
x Contents
7 Transitions to New Policy Systems 258
7.1 Analysis of Policy Transitions 259
Examples of Transitions 259
Learning 260
Rigidities 260
7.2 Transition to a Monetary Policy Rule with Zero Inflation 261
Calibration of the Wage Setting Equations 261
7.3 Transition to a New Fiscal Policy 269
Credible Multiyear Budget Deficit Reduction 269
The Role of Monetary Policy in the Transition 273
Internationally Coordinated Transitions 275
7.4 Conclusion 277
Reference Notes 278
8 Policy Systems in Operation 279
8.1 From Policy Rules to Credible and Systematic Policies 279
A New Look for Policy Rules 281
Drawing the Line between Fundamentals and Details 282
A Consensus Rationale for Systematic Policies: Credibility 283
8.2 The Oil Price Shock of 1990 284
Policy Response 285
International Macmeconomic Policy 286
8.3 Automatic Stabilizers and the Revision to the Budget Law 289
8.4 The Bond Market and Inflation 290
8.5 Assessment: A Continuing Revolution? 291
Reference Notes 292
Appendix 1: Data 295
Appendix 2: Computer Programs 311
References 313
Index 319
|
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| id | DE-604.BV009570919 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T09:38:32Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0393963160 |
| language | German |
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| spellingShingle | Taylor, John B. Macroeconomic policy in a world economy from econometric design to practical operation Econometrische analyse gtt Econometría Economische politiek gtt Internationale economische betrekkingen gtt Macro-economie gtt Macroeconomía Politique économique Relaciones económicas internacionales Relations économiques internationales Économétrie Weltwirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Econometrics Economic policy International economic relations Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4162065-3 gnd |
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| title | Macroeconomic policy in a world economy from econometric design to practical operation |
| title_auth | Macroeconomic policy in a world economy from econometric design to practical operation |
| title_exact_search | Macroeconomic policy in a world economy from econometric design to practical operation |
| title_full | Macroeconomic policy in a world economy from econometric design to practical operation John B. Taylor |
| title_fullStr | Macroeconomic policy in a world economy from econometric design to practical operation John B. Taylor |
| title_full_unstemmed | Macroeconomic policy in a world economy from econometric design to practical operation John B. Taylor |
| title_short | Macroeconomic policy in a world economy |
| title_sort | macroeconomic policy in a world economy from econometric design to practical operation |
| title_sub | from econometric design to practical operation |
| topic | Econometrische analyse gtt Econometría Economische politiek gtt Internationale economische betrekkingen gtt Macro-economie gtt Macroeconomía Politique économique Relaciones económicas internacionales Relations économiques internationales Économétrie Weltwirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Econometrics Economic policy International economic relations Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4162065-3 gnd |
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