Crisis, stabilization, and economic reform: therapy by consensus
Gespeichert in:
| Beteilige Person: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Oxford
Clarendon Press
1993
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Clarendon lectures in economics
|
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Links: | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=005473429&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Umfang: | XIX, 300 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0198286635 |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Economic stabilization -- Israel | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1819317849150193664 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures XV1
List of Tables xviii
Abbreviations xx
1. High Inflation, Growth Crisis, and Reform:
Historical Perspective and Brief Overview 1
1.1 Recent Comparative International Experience 1
1.2 Explosive Hyperinflations of the 1920s 3
1 3 Chronic High Inflation in Recent History 6
1.4 Emergence of the Heterodox Approach to Stabilization 11
1.5 Structural Crisis and Reform as Protracted Processes:
An Overview of the Issues
2. The Gathering Storm: Israels Structural Crisis in the 1970s 23
2.1 Growth and Productivity: A Historical Perspective 25
2.2 International Comparison of Growth and Inflation 27
2.3 The Government Budget: From Growth to Redistribution 30
2.4 Ballooning Internal and External Debt 34
2.5 Implications for the Structure of Employment 36
2.6 Savings, Investments, and Rates of Return 38
2.7 The Self Reinforcing Nature of the Structural Crisis:
A Partial Summary
3. Shocks and Accommodation: The Dichotomy and
Mechanics of High Inflation
42
3.1 Introduction
3 2 Budget Finance, Seigniorage, and Average Inflation 44
3 3 From Single to Three Digit Inflation: The Changing
Trade off between Real GDP, Inflation, and the
49
Current Account
xiv Contents
3.4 Aggregate Supply and Demand, and the Analytics of
Nominal Anchors 59
3.5 Time Invariance of the Basic Inflation Equation 63
3.6 Backward Indexation and Changing Inflation Dynamics 67
3.7 Concluding Note 74
Mathematical Appendix 76
4. Preparing for a Comprehensive Stabilization Programme
1981 1985: Doctrinal Debates, Politics, and Trial by Error 78
4.1 Introduction: Ideas, Economists, and Politicians 78
4.2 Economists Changing Views on Exchange Rates, Inflation,
and Stabilization 80
4.3 A Digression on the Players in the Political Game 84
4.4 Deepening Crisis, Lebanon, and a Dollarization
Fiasco, 1981 1984 87
4.5 The National Unity Government in its First Year
(1984 1985), or The Fine Art of Muddling Through 92
4.6 Economists are Finally Given a Chance 96
4.7 Outline of the July Programme 102
4.8 Politics and the Social Wage Contract 106
5. The Fight over Stabilization and the Structural Adjustment
Process, 1985 1991 108
5.1 Introduction and Overview 108
5.2 Phase 1: Early Tests of Fiscal and Exchange Rate
Credibility 112
5.3 Phases 2 and 3: The Post Stabilization Business Cycle 119
5.4 Establishing Fiscal Credibility 128
5.5 The Struggle over the Establishment of a Nominal
Anchor: Credibility and Learning 134
5.6 A Digression on the Role of Price Controls and
their Removal 143
5.7 Structural Adjustment and the Reform Process 147
6. Latin American Comparisons: Failures, Successes,
Heterogeneity 156
6.1 Introduction 156
6.2 Chile: From Democracy to a Socialist Experiment 158
6.3 The Military Government and the Lessons of
Pure Orthodoxy 162
Contents xv
6.4 From Tablita to Confidence Crisis 164
6.5 Recovery and Normalization: Reaping the Benefits
of Reform 168
6.6 How Different was Argentina from Chile in the 1970s? 171
6.7 Argentina and Bolivia in 1985: Why was the Austral Plan
Short Lived? 175
6.8 Price Controls without Fundamentals:
Brazil and Argentina in 1986 1990 182
6.9 Argentina s 1991 Convertibility Plan:
Has the Turning Point Finally Come? 188
6.10 Mexico s Successful Heterodox Stabilization and Reform 190
7. Stabilization and Reform in Eastern Europe 200
7.1 Introduction 200
7.2 Yugoslavia s Inflation in the 1980s
and the 1989 1990 Reform Effort 207
7.3 Poland and the East European Economies: Initial
Conditions and Country Programmes 211
7.4 Stabilization: Was the Initial Price Shock Necessary? 218
7.5 Was the Output Collapse Unavoidable? 224
7.6 Was the Fiscal Balance Sustainable? 230
7.7 What to Do with Bad Loan Portfolios and
Enterprise Arrears? 234
7.8 Privatization of Large State Owned Enterprises:
What to Do during the (Long) Transition? 238
7.9 The Ingredients of Macro Policy during the Transition 241
7.10 Concluding Remarks 245
8 Synthesis, Policy Lessons, and Open Questions 248
8.1 Introduction 248
8.2 Common Factors in Crisis Entry or Avoidance 250
8.3 Crisis, Macro Policy, and Reform:
A Diagrammatic Exposition 256
8.4 Why are Stabilizations and Reforms Delayed? 262
8.5 Components of a Stylized Stabilization
and Structural Reform 268
8.6 The Sequencing and the Speed of Implementation 273
References 280
Index of Subjects 291
Index of Names 298
List of Figures
1.1 Four hyperinflations of the 1920s 5
1.2 Eight high inflations, 1972 1992 9
1.3 Growth and the rate of inflation by subperiod,
1960 1991 17
2.1 Product, factor inputs, and productivity in the business
sector, 1950 1990 25
2.2 Inflation and growth: International comparison,
1960 1990 28
2.3 Israel s internal and external debt, 1965 1991 35
2.4 Israeli employment and unemployment, 1960 1990 36
2.5 Share of labour in product and rate of return to capital,
1961 1990 39
3.1 Total public sector deficit and annual rate of CPI
inflation, Israel, 1964 1991 43
3.2 Israeli CPI inflation 51
3.3a Inflation and output slack, Israel and OECD,
1965 1991 53
3.36 External deficit ratio and output slack, 1965 1991 53
3.4 Aggregate demand and aggregate supply in the
commodities market 60
3.5 Shocks and accommodation under alternative regimes 71
5.1 The state of the economy index, 1975 1991 111
5.2 Industrial production and unemployment,
1980 1990 120
5.3 Rate of return to government bonds and consumption
per capita, Israel, 1980 1990 122
List of Figures xvii
5.4 Industrial production and unemployment in
Germany, 1923 1929 128
5.5 Domestic public sector deficit, 1981 1991 131
5.6 Exchange rate, wage rate, and wholesale price index,
1981 1990 137
5.7 Relative prices of industrial production, 1985 1991 138
5.8 Traded and non traded goods prices and wage
inflation, 1986 1991 139
5.9 Selected price indices, 1986 1991 140
5.10 Nominal interest rate and inflation, 1984 1991 141
6.1 Inflation, unemployment, and the government
deficit, Chile, 1961 1990 163
6.2 CPI inflation, wages, and the exchange rate, Chile,
1976 1991 166
6.3 Government deficit/GDP and monthly rate of
inflation, Argentina, 1983 1991 176
6.4 Government deficit/GDP and monthly rate of
inflation, Bolivia, 1980 1990 182
6.5 Brazil s (and Israel s) average monthly CPI inflation
rate, 1980 1991 184
6.6 The deficit and annual inflation, Mexico, 1970 1990 192
6.7 Annual rate of change of CPI, wages, and the
exchange rate, Mexico, 1970 1991 195
6.8 Real wage in manufacturing, Israel and Mexico,
1970 1990 196
6.9 Real short term borrowing rates, Mexico and Israel,
1983 1991 197
7.1 Eastern Europe exchange rates, 1989 1992 217
7.2 CPI inflation and exchange rates, Eastern Europe,
1989 1992 221
8.1 Growth and inflation: External shock and low level
trap 249
8.2 Crisis, stabilization, and reform: Diagrammatic
representation 257
List of Tables
1.1 Growth and inflation of the heavily indebted countries,
1980 1989 (compared with 1965 1980) 2
1.2 Inflation growth and debt in inflationary middle income
economies, 1980 1985 (and 1965 1980) 3
1.3 Hyperinflations of the 1920s (1920 1924) 5
1.4 High inflation, hyperinflation, and stabilization,
1970 1991 8
1.5 Per capita growth and inflation in six countries,
1960 1991 16
1.6 Indices of political rights and civil liberties 19
2.1 Business sector GDP, factor input, and productivity in
Israel, 1950 1990 26
2.2 Public sector expenditures and revenues, 1960 1990 32
2.3 Savings, gross domestic investment, and the current
account, 1960 1990 39
3.1 Government deficit finance, 1960 1990 46
3.2 Government injection to money base and the rate of
inflation, 1965 1990 48
3.3 Inflation, money, growth, and wages, 1960 1990 50
3.4 Price acceleration equation (3.7) 64
3.5a Elasticity of inflation with respect to its own lags,
quarterly data, 1965 1991 72
2 .5b Elasticity of inflation with respect to its own lags:
Estimates from monthly regressions, 1971 1991 72
5.1 Key indicators, 1980 1991 110
5.2 Traverse into stabilization, January 1984 June 1987 115
5.3 Resources and their uses, 1981 1991 124
5.4 Principal components of general government income
and expenditure, 1980 1991 130
6.1 Macro economic indicators for Chile, 1965 1991 160
6.2 Macro economic indicators for Argentina, 1965 1991 174
List of Tables xix
6.3 Macro economic indicators for Mexico, 1965 1991 193
6.4 Changes in public sector expenditures and revenues,
Mexico, 1965 1986 194
7.1 East European and Soviet GNP growth, 1971 1991 202
7.2 East European and Soviet CPI inflation, 1986 1991 203
7.3 Eastern Europe: Comparison of fund programmes 205
7.4 Five East European countries: Initial (pre programme)
conditions 212
7.5 Structure of GDP by economic sector in Eastern
Europe, 1938 and 1988 214
7.6 Eastern Europe: Selected indicators, 1990 1991 220
7.7 Comparative structure of general government budget,
1985: Eastern Europe, USSR, and EEC 232
8.1 Components of stabilization and structural reforms:
Summary list 269
|
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| geographic_facet | Israel -- Economic policy Israel -- Economic conditions Israel |
| id | DE-604.BV008283523 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T09:19:44Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0198286635 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-005473429 |
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| physical | XIX, 300 S. graph. Darst. |
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| spellingShingle | Bruno, Michael Crisis, stabilization, and economic reform therapy by consensus inflazione - politica economica di stabilizzazione - * 1970-1990 tessin-TR politica economica di stabilizzazione - * Israele - * 1970-1990 tessin-TR Wirtschaft Wirtschaft. Geschichte Wirtschaftspolitik Inflation (Finance) -- Israel Economic stabilization -- Israel Inflation (Finance) Economic stabilization Economic policy Economic history -- 1971-1990 Stabilitätspolitik (DE-588)4077791-1 gnd Inflationsbekämpfung (DE-588)4161661-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4077791-1 (DE-588)4161661-3 (DE-588)4027808-6 |
| title | Crisis, stabilization, and economic reform therapy by consensus |
| title_auth | Crisis, stabilization, and economic reform therapy by consensus |
| title_exact_search | Crisis, stabilization, and economic reform therapy by consensus |
| title_full | Crisis, stabilization, and economic reform therapy by consensus Michael Bruno |
| title_fullStr | Crisis, stabilization, and economic reform therapy by consensus Michael Bruno |
| title_full_unstemmed | Crisis, stabilization, and economic reform therapy by consensus Michael Bruno |
| title_short | Crisis, stabilization, and economic reform |
| title_sort | crisis stabilization and economic reform therapy by consensus |
| title_sub | therapy by consensus |
| topic | inflazione - politica economica di stabilizzazione - * 1970-1990 tessin-TR politica economica di stabilizzazione - * Israele - * 1970-1990 tessin-TR Wirtschaft Wirtschaft. Geschichte Wirtschaftspolitik Inflation (Finance) -- Israel Economic stabilization -- Israel Inflation (Finance) Economic stabilization Economic policy Economic history -- 1971-1990 Stabilitätspolitik (DE-588)4077791-1 gnd Inflationsbekämpfung (DE-588)4161661-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | inflazione - politica economica di stabilizzazione - * 1970-1990 politica economica di stabilizzazione - * Israele - * 1970-1990 Wirtschaft Wirtschaft. Geschichte Wirtschaftspolitik Inflation (Finance) -- Israel Economic stabilization -- Israel Inflation (Finance) Economic stabilization Economic policy Economic history -- 1971-1990 Stabilitätspolitik Inflationsbekämpfung Israel -- Economic policy Israel -- Economic conditions Israel |
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